Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

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vnatale
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by vnatale » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:10 pm

technovelist wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:57 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 2:30 am
Owning a gun has scant relevance to defending yourself against terrorists, burglars, or flying saucers. It’s about defending yourself against a police state that does not care for your well-being or your liberties.
Of course I agree with your comments about the police state.
But you're wrong about burglars. Most burglaries in some countries are when the victims are home ("hot burglaries") and in other countries (the US, for example) they are mostly when the victims are not home. The reason is that if a lot of homeowners have guns, the burglar is more likely to be shot if the victims are at home:

"In studies involving interviews of felons, one of the reasons the majority of burglars try to avoid occupied homes is the chance of getting shot. (Increasing the odds of arrest is another.) A study of Pennsylvania burglary inmates reported that many burglars refrain from late-night burglaries because it's hard to tell if anyone is home, several explaining "That's the way to get shot." (Rengert G. and Wasilchick J., Suburban Burglary: A Time and a Place for Everything, 1985, Springfield, IL: Charles Thomas.)

"By comparing criminal victimization surveys from Britain and the Netherlands (countries having low levels of gun ownership) with the U.S., Florida State University criminologist Gary Kleck determined that if the U.S. were to have similar rates of "hot" burglaries as these other nations, there would be more than 450,000 additional burglaries per year where the victim was threatened or assaulted. (Britain and the Netherlands have a "hot" burglary rate near 45% versus just under 13% for the U.S., and in the U.S. a victim is threatened or attacked 30% of the time during a "hot" burglary.)

"Source: Gary Kleck, Targeting Guns: Firearms and Their Control, Walter de Gruyter, Inc., New York, 1997. "
What I read seemed to make sense in that those breaking into a house are going to take the path of least resistance. Therefore, things like having the house brightly lit outside and having a dog are excellent deterrents. I can guarantee that when I had my white German Shepherd who was really quite sweet but who appeared ferocious when you came near my house that anyone with intent coming to my house would say, "Let's go elsewhere."

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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by technovelist » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:13 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:08 pm
technovelist wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:57 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 2:30 am
Owning a gun has scant relevance to defending yourself against terrorists, burglars, or flying saucers. It’s about defending yourself against a police state that does not care for your well-being or your liberties.
Of course I agree with your comments about the police state.
But you're wrong about burglars. Most burglaries in some countries are when the victims are home ("hot burglaries") and in other countries (the US, for example) they are mostly when the victims are not home. The reason is that if a lot of homeowners have guns, the burglar is more likely to be shot if the victims are at home:

"In studies involving interviews of felons, one of the reasons the majority of burglars try to avoid occupied homes is the chance of getting shot. (Increasing the odds of arrest is another.) A study of Pennsylvania burglary inmates reported that many burglars refrain from late-night burglaries because it's hard to tell if anyone is home, several explaining "That's the way to get shot." (Rengert G. and Wasilchick J., Suburban Burglary: A Time and a Place for Everything, 1985, Springfield, IL: Charles Thomas.)

"By comparing criminal victimization surveys from Britain and the Netherlands (countries having low levels of gun ownership) with the U.S., Florida State University criminologist Gary Kleck determined that if the U.S. were to have similar rates of "hot" burglaries as these other nations, there would be more than 450,000 additional burglaries per year where the victim was threatened or assaulted. (Britain and the Netherlands have a "hot" burglary rate near 45% versus just under 13% for the U.S., and in the U.S. a victim is threatened or attacked 30% of the time during a "hot" burglary.)

"Source: Gary Kleck, Targeting Guns: Firearms and Their Control, Walter de Gruyter, Inc., New York, 1997. "
Another poster earlier mentioned this as well and I figure I should respond. I agree with your contention actually. I should elaborate about what I meant with the statement you quoted.

When I say that owning a gun is not so much about burglars etc., I don't mean to say it's not an effective deterrent. What I was implying was that the principle of gun ownership and the second amendment is first and foremost about the public's relationship to government. It is, as a principle, so dangerous to have a well armed government and unarmed citizens. The defense of oneself from burglars just wasn't as relevant to the political stance I was talking about in the OP.
Yes, of course that was the original reason and still the most important one.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by vnatale » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:19 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:08 pm


When I say that owning a gun is not so much about burglars etc., I don't mean to say it's not an effective deterrent. What I was implying was that the principle of gun ownership and the second amendment is first and foremost about the public's relationship to government. It is, as a principle, so dangerous to have a well armed government and unarmed citizens. The defense of oneself from burglars just wasn't as relevant to the political stance I was talking about in the OP.
If the military turned against the citizens I don't care how well armed those citizens are, they are not going to win. Do any of you know any well-armed citizens who can fight against tanks and planes? The 2nd amendment was written way before either of those was ever imagined.

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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:25 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:19 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:08 pm


When I say that owning a gun is not so much about burglars etc., I don't mean to say it's not an effective deterrent. What I was implying was that the principle of gun ownership and the second amendment is first and foremost about the public's relationship to government. It is, as a principle, so dangerous to have a well armed government and unarmed citizens. The defense of oneself from burglars just wasn't as relevant to the political stance I was talking about in the OP.
If the military turned against the citizens I don't care how well armed those citizens are, they are not going to win. Do any of you know any well-armed citizens who can fight against tanks and planes? The 2nd amendment was written way before either of those was ever imagined.

Vinny
Right on, and that's exactly why I detest the insidious and slow erosion of the second amendment via proposals to ban certain "styles" of firearms. It only makes that gap in firepower larger. No "assault-style" firearms? What's next? No pistols and only knives? What then? No knives and only sticks?
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by l82start » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:28 pm

insurgency by an armed citizenry can work, think guerilla warfare, not only is it effective but at a speed that would make your head spin arms dealers will be selling them equipment to match force... I seriously doubt it would come to that though, because as others have pointed out, the American military are gun and freedom loving citizens
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:30 pm

l82start wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:28 pm
insurgency by an armed citizenry can work, think guerilla warfare, not only is it effective but at a speed that would make your head spin arms dealers will be selling them equipment to match force... I seriously doubt it would come to that though, because as others have pointed out, the American military are gun and freedom loving citizens
+1
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by drumminj » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:45 pm

technovelist wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:04 pm
Peaceful protests are fine.
But riots must be put down by force, and looters must be shot.
Anything else is encouraging more violence.
I'm not sure I'd go quite as far as you state above, but agree that riots must be put down by force. Instead, what we saw here is 1) the looters were largely ignored, 2) a curfew was enacted but not enforced, and 3) the crowd was not dispersed.

IMO, as soon as violence happens you clear the area. If that means the protest gets shut down, sorry, but the police should maintain order. Work with protest organizers to communicate of when it's safe to resume again.

Instead, our police sent a message that folks can show up and riot and loot without repercussion. Reading twitter, at least some business owners don't agree with that and were planning to more aggressively defend their businesses today/this evening.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by dualstow » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:51 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:07 pm
We are a relatively tiny group here. When I asked the question I was not expecting so many to be so close. So far it's a fairly highly proportion of those who have disclosed.
It may be that those of us who live nearby are more motivated to chime in.
—-
Very interesting stats, tech. (Below)
technovelist wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:57 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 2:30 am
Owning a gun has scant relevance to defending yourself against terrorists, burglars, or flying saucers. It’s about defending yourself against a police state that does not care for your well-being or your liberties.
Of course I agree with your comments about the police state.
But you're wrong about burglars. Most burglaries in some countries are when the victims are home ("hot burglaries") and in other countries (the US, for example) they are mostly when the victims are not home. The reason is that if a lot of homeowners have guns, the burglar is more likely to be shot if the victims are at home:

"In studies involving interviews of felons, one of the reasons the majority of burglars try to avoid occupied homes is the chance of getting shot. (Increasing the odds of arrest is another.) A study of Pennsylvania burglary inmates reported that many burglars refrain from late-night burglaries because it's hard to tell if anyone is home, several explaining "That's the way to get shot." (Rengert G. and Wasilchick J., Suburban Burglary: A Time and a Place for Everything, 1985, Springfield, IL: Charles Thomas.)

"By comparing criminal victimization surveys from Britain and the Netherlands (countries having low levels of gun ownership) with the U.S., Florida State University criminologist Gary Kleck determined that if the U.S. were to have similar rates of "hot" burglaries as these other nations, there would be more than 450,000 additional burglaries per year where the victim was threatened or assaulted. (Britain and the Netherlands have a "hot" burglary rate near 45% versus just under 13% for the U.S., and in the U.S. a victim is threatened or attacked 30% of the time during a "hot" burglary.)

"Source: Gary Kleck, Targeting Guns: Firearms and Their Control, Walter de Gruyter, Inc., New York, 1997. "
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:40 pm

Yesterday when I was not socially distancing from people I was telling them my theory; Antifa's plan this time around is to seed riots by harnessing the mob mentality. Whereas before it would be a big crowd of Antifa rioting (in Portland, for example), it looks like this time they waited until a mob had formed, and then a few of them would go start escalating the situation. But they have mis-read at least a significant portion of people in the crowds. In DC, but a crowd captured and physically carried an Antifa rioter to the police. In Pittsburgh, an Antifa was destroying a cop car and the crowd berated him until he left. Someone called in a tip to the police, and he's now been arrested. My hunch is that the Umbrella Man who smashed the Auto Zone windows then left was an Antifa who was doing the same thing.

I think Antifa majorly overestimated how popular they are with most Americans. It looks like most everyone hates them. This is good news; much like insurgents, groups like Antifa need the support of the populace in order to hide. If most people don't like what you're doing, they'll turn you in and police can roll up the network, if they're so inclined. One wishes the FBI hadn't wasted time and manpower investigating and trying to frame Trump, and focused on this type of thing instead.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:52 pm

Before it gets to the point of military vs citizens, said citizens will have been thoroughly demonized so that it will be much easier for the state’s agents to act in good conscience. An inexact example would be David Koresh and the rest at Waco. Or Jews in Germany, intellectuals in Russia and lots of other countries, etc.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by technovelist » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:02 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:19 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:08 pm


When I say that owning a gun is not so much about burglars etc., I don't mean to say it's not an effective deterrent. What I was implying was that the principle of gun ownership and the second amendment is first and foremost about the public's relationship to government. It is, as a principle, so dangerous to have a well armed government and unarmed citizens. The defense of oneself from burglars just wasn't as relevant to the political stance I was talking about in the OP.
If the military turned against the citizens I don't care how well armed those citizens are, they are not going to win. Do any of you know any well-armed citizens who can fight against tanks and planes? The 2nd amendment was written way before either of those was ever imagined.

Vinny
I recommend asking the Afghans and the Soviets how that worked out for them.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by technovelist » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:04 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:52 pm
Before it gets to the point of military vs citizens, said citizens will have been thoroughly demonized so that it will be much easier for the state’s agents to act in good conscience. An inexact example would be David Koresh and the rest at Waco. Or Jews in Germany, intellectuals in Russia and lots of other countries, etc.
That's what the lamestream media is trying to do to Trump supporters.
But it's not going to work.
Especially because he is very popular with the military.
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