The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

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WiseOne
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The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by WiseOne » Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:02 am

Figured it will be useful to maintain a separate thread on the topic. This is going to be a MAJOR election fiasco.

I've been spending a lot of time with my mom as her cognitive impairment has progressed to the point that she can't manage completely on her own anymore. Of course she insists she doesn't need a caregiver, but at the same time she doesn't want me to leave because I'm filling that role. Separate topic of course.

It turns out that New Jersey has for all practical purposes banned in person voting. You have to be blind or disabled to vote in person, and there will be "limited polling places open". That sounds highly improbable to me. That means that NJ will be 100% vote by mail - and the info they've sent out is so confusing that it took me and my mom more than a bit of time this AM to figure that out. I bet a lot of voters will throw out their ballots thinking it's junk mail, or will fill them out incorrectly, or won't know how to navigate the new process.

I'm going to guess that this will preferentially disenfranchise two important voting blocs: the elderly, and poor immigrants with limited technical and reading/writing skills. One of these works against Republicans, and the other against Democrats. I guess we'll see how it balances out.

I'm glad NY hasn't gone that far - they are still allowing voting in person. Not sure how many other states have gone as far as NJ has.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Tortoise » Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:23 pm

Fauci and Birx both stated that in-person voting is safe, so I don’t think any state has a public health justification for reducing or eliminating in-person polling places.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Mark Leavy » Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:33 pm

My registered address is a mail service in South Dakota.

The way this service normally works is that when I get a new piece of (non junk) mail they send me a photo of the exterior and I can select whether it should be shredded, scanned or forwarded to me.

They just sent me a notice that they will NOT be opening and scanning anything that looks like a ballot. My choices are only shred or forward.

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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by WiseOne » Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:08 pm

I sure hope someone will indeed take this to court - so far, I haven't heard of any state putting any new restrictions on voting. This is what it says on NJ's official voting website:
You may choose to vote in person at your polling place, from 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. on election day, November 3, and you will be provided a provisional paper ballot. Accommodations will be made for people with disabilities to use an accessible voting device. Remember, you can return your vote-by-mail ballot at your polling place. Go to Vote.NJ.Gov for your polling place, listed on the Find Your Polling Location page.
Lovely. How do they get to define a provisional ballot as "voting in person"???

I doubt the CDC's statement will make any difference. They're a hot mess and they have just about no credibility left.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:35 pm

The issue with relying on courts as far as I can see is that they've seen that they can do the damage then face the lawsuit later. Look at PA under Gov Wolf. A judge has ruled that he did a shit ton of unconstitutional stuff. The lawsuit didn't prevent any of it. Same with the LA mayor shutting off utilities to a house because the owners were inviting people over for parties. I'm guessing he's eventually going to be on the bad side of a lawsuit, but meanwhile he's seemingly free to violate people as much as he feels like.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Tortoise » Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:42 pm

That's why I think the best response to massive unconstitutional power grabs is widespread civil disobedience. The government has finite resources and can't enforce their unconstitutional diktats if everyone defies them in unison. The courts sort out the aftermath, but the immediate infringement of liberty is dealt with by civil disobedience.

But I suppose even civil disobedience wouldn't help in the case of in-person voting, which is organized and run by the government itself.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by glennds » Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:31 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:35 pm
I'm guessing he's eventually going to be on the bad side of a lawsuit, but meanwhile he's seemingly free to violate people as much as he feels like.
So long as he doesn't grab them by the p**** I hope.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Tortoise » Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:38 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:08 pm
I doubt the CDC's statement will make any difference. They're a hot mess and they have just about no credibility left.
True, but Fauci and Birx aren't even part of the CDC. They're part of the White House Coronavirus Task Force. They've discredited themselves, too -- along with most other public health officials.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by glennds » Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:14 am

WiseOne wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:02 am
Figured it will be useful to maintain a separate thread on the topic. This is going to be a MAJOR election fiasco.

I've been spending a lot of time with my mom as her cognitive impairment has progressed to the point that she can't manage completely on her own anymore. Of course she insists she doesn't need a caregiver, but at the same time she doesn't want me to leave because I'm filling that role. Separate topic of course.

It turns out that New Jersey has for all practical purposes banned in person voting. You have to be blind or disabled to vote in person, and there will be "limited polling places open". That sounds highly improbable to me. That means that NJ will be 100% vote by mail - and the info they've sent out is so confusing that it took me and my mom more than a bit of time this AM to figure that out. I bet a lot of voters will throw out their ballots thinking it's junk mail, or will fill them out incorrectly, or won't know how to navigate the new process.

I'm going to guess that this will preferentially disenfranchise two important voting blocs: the elderly, and poor immigrants with limited technical and reading/writing skills. One of these works against Republicans, and the other against Democrats. I guess we'll see how it balances out.

I'm glad NY hasn't gone that far - they are still allowing voting in person. Not sure how many other states have gone as far as NJ has.
It's remarkable how much this can vary depending upon where you live.
In Maricopa County, AZ (includes Phoenix), there are over 170 voting locations, including many accepting early in-person voting at varying start dates in mid-late October. In addition there are over 40 secure drop boxes for vote-by-mail ballots which makes it easy to submit early ballots without using the USPS if you so desire.
They are advertising for hiring additional poll workers at $12.00-$13.50/hr and supposedly offering live wait times online for vote locations on Election Day to try and minimize lines.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by WiseOne » Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:36 am

glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:14 am
They are advertising for hiring additional poll workers at $12.00-$13.50/hr and supposedly offering live wait times online for vote locations on Election Day to try and minimize lines.
That would be a pretty cheap way to muck with those mail in ballots, wouldn't it? WIth the voting machines there is an electronic and paper record, and it would be hard for a poll worker to tamper with them. But a poll worker sitting at a socially distanced location can quickly check a ballot and invalidate it depending on how the person voted. So easy to do, all it takes is a No. 2 pencil and/or an eraser.

Bets on how many people taking jobs as poll workers will engage in that kind of activity?
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by glennds » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:14 am

WiseOne wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:36 am
glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:14 am
They are advertising for hiring additional poll workers at $12.00-$13.50/hr and supposedly offering live wait times online for vote locations on Election Day to try and minimize lines.
That would be a pretty cheap way to muck with those mail in ballots, wouldn't it? WIth the voting machines there is an electronic and paper record, and it would be hard for a poll worker to tamper with them. But a poll worker sitting at a socially distanced location can quickly check a ballot and invalidate it depending on how the person voted. So easy to do, all it takes is a No. 2 pencil and/or an eraser.

Bets on how many people taking jobs as poll workers will engage in that kind of activity?
What would it take to satisfy you?
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Xan » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:17 am

glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:14 am
WiseOne wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:36 am
glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:14 am
They are advertising for hiring additional poll workers at $12.00-$13.50/hr and supposedly offering live wait times online for vote locations on Election Day to try and minimize lines.
That would be a pretty cheap way to muck with those mail in ballots, wouldn't it? WIth the voting machines there is an electronic and paper record, and it would be hard for a poll worker to tamper with them. But a poll worker sitting at a socially distanced location can quickly check a ballot and invalidate it depending on how the person voted. So easy to do, all it takes is a No. 2 pencil and/or an eraser.

Bets on how many people taking jobs as poll workers will engage in that kind of activity?
What would it take to satisfy you?
Voting in person, I would think, would be the reliable way.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:24 am

I'll be voting in person, like normal. I've voted in my current polling location before, and I can tell you for certain that it's the least infectious place I'll have gone to in the past several months, with the exception of my house ;D

I'm gonna go out on a limb and assume that vulnerable populations like oldsters in nursing homes are the people that already vote via the mail.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by glennds » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:28 am

Xan wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:17 am
glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:14 am
WiseOne wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:36 am
glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:14 am
They are advertising for hiring additional poll workers at $12.00-$13.50/hr and supposedly offering live wait times online for vote locations on Election Day to try and minimize lines.
That would be a pretty cheap way to muck with those mail in ballots, wouldn't it? WIth the voting machines there is an electronic and paper record, and it would be hard for a poll worker to tamper with them. But a poll worker sitting at a socially distanced location can quickly check a ballot and invalidate it depending on how the person voted. So easy to do, all it takes is a No. 2 pencil and/or an eraser.

Bets on how many people taking jobs as poll workers will engage in that kind of activity?
What would it take to satisfy you?
Voting in person, I would think, would be the reliable way.
Xan, WiseOne's post raises concerns about the poll workers at the voting location quickly checking and tampering with the ballots.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Xan » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:32 am

glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:28 am
Xan wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:17 am
glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:14 am
WiseOne wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:36 am
glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:14 am
They are advertising for hiring additional poll workers at $12.00-$13.50/hr and supposedly offering live wait times online for vote locations on Election Day to try and minimize lines.
That would be a pretty cheap way to muck with those mail in ballots, wouldn't it? WIth the voting machines there is an electronic and paper record, and it would be hard for a poll worker to tamper with them. But a poll worker sitting at a socially distanced location can quickly check a ballot and invalidate it depending on how the person voted. So easy to do, all it takes is a No. 2 pencil and/or an eraser.

Bets on how many people taking jobs as poll workers will engage in that kind of activity?
What would it take to satisfy you?
Voting in person, I would think, would be the reliable way.
Xan, WiseOne's post raises concerns about the poll workers at the voting location quickly checking and tampering with the ballots.
I think she's talking about the poll workers who are receiving "mail-in" ballots at polling places.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by glennds » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:43 am

Xan wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:32 am
glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:28 am
Xan wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:17 am
glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:14 am
WiseOne wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:36 am
glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:14 am
They are advertising for hiring additional poll workers at $12.00-$13.50/hr and supposedly offering live wait times online for vote locations on Election Day to try and minimize lines.
That would be a pretty cheap way to muck with those mail in ballots, wouldn't it? WIth the voting machines there is an electronic and paper record, and it would be hard for a poll worker to tamper with them. But a poll worker sitting at a socially distanced location can quickly check a ballot and invalidate it depending on how the person voted. So easy to do, all it takes is a No. 2 pencil and/or an eraser.

Bets on how many people taking jobs as poll workers will engage in that kind of activity?
What would it take to satisfy you?
Voting in person, I would think, would be the reliable way.
Xan, WiseOne's post raises concerns about the poll workers at the voting location quickly checking and tampering with the ballots.
I think she's talking about the poll workers who are receiving "mail-in" ballots at polling places.
Yes, I think I see the difference now. I assumed people sending in mail-in ballots are wanting to avoid the polling locations entirely.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by glennds » Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:55 pm

My earlier question still stands.
What would it take for you to be satisfied with early/mail-in/absentee ballots?
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Mark Leavy » Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:18 pm

Just brainstorming here, but I would be impressed with some sort of on-line two stage validation system.

Step 1:
Individual voters could log in and see that their votes had been logged and tallied correctly. Perhaps something like this IRS web page, except for votes.

Step 2:
And then, in a more public manner, any voter could log in and see the relevant statistics. I'm not sure what would be appropriate and/or legal here, but maybe a count of how many ballots had been requested, how many had been returned, how those numbers compare with the voter rolls, what the statistical expectation based on population is, how many ballots had been validated as having been sent to the correct address, to a living person, currently registered and specifically requested. Show what percentage of requests/submissions have been turned down because of irregularities.

Stuff like that would go a long ways towards gaining the trust of the public. Or igniting the fires of the conspiracy theorists :)
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:41 pm

Most counties in the country have no restrictions on when you move there you can immediately vote there. Some have up to 30 day waiting periods.

Why don't these democratic billionaires simply move a few hundred thousand democrats, temporarily, to places like Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio? Drop in the bucket cost-wise?

Or just do it with college students, who can choose what state they want to vote in if they go to school out of state.

Joking, but I bet someone's considered this.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:46 pm

glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:55 pm
My earlier question still stands.
What would it take for you to be satisfied with early/mail-in/absentee ballots?
There will be no satisfactory answer here. I would guess even if there was no Covid and voting was 95% in person, there would be some concern about some aspect that would delegitimize the results if Trump loses.

Only acceptable vote count is one where Trump wins...huuuggggee.

Anything else was fake, or fraud.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Mark Leavy » Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:12 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:46 pm
glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:55 pm
My earlier question still stands.
What would it take for you to be satisfied with early/mail-in/absentee ballots?
There will be no satisfactory answer here. I would guess even if there was no Covid and voting was 95% in person, there would be some concern about some aspect that would delegitimize the results if Trump loses.

Only acceptable vote count is one where Trump wins...huuuggggee.

Anything else was fake, or fraud.
Beg your pardon?
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:26 pm

I expect both sides to complain about the other side winning, in various ways.

May sound crazy here, but I also expect calm afterwards regardless of the result.

I think both sides would push very close to that civil war level but cooler heads will win out for the good of the country.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by WiseOne » Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:30 pm

glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:55 pm
My earlier question still stands.
What would it take for you to be satisfied with early/mail-in/absentee ballots?
Good question.

Probably a combination of things. Immediate notification to the voter if a ballot is rejected, so the voter can correct the problem. Secure online confirmation of the recorded vote, or a mailed confirmation so that the voter can check that the vote was recorded correctly.

Of course, the best option is for people to vote in person. I don't understand why the jump to mail-in ballots when there is a much simpler solution: make election day "election week" instead, with polls open daily for several days and people assigned to a specific voting day based on first letter of last name or some such. Problem solved with minimal cost and little fuss.
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:49 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:50 pm

They know they can't win a fair election,
I just don't understand how you can state that with such confidence. Even the most Trump positive polls has the race pretty even, no? With most having Biden in some sort of lead?

With most minds made up: https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/poli ... is-made-up
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Re: The vote by mail fiasco, as it unfolds

Post by glennds » Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:28 am

WiseOne wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:30 pm
glennds wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:55 pm
My earlier question still stands.
What would it take for you to be satisfied with early/mail-in/absentee ballots?
Good question.

Probably a combination of things. Immediate notification to the voter if a ballot is rejected, so the voter can correct the problem. Secure online confirmation of the recorded vote, or a mailed confirmation so that the voter can check that the vote was recorded correctly.

Of course, the best option is for people to vote in person. I don't understand why the jump to mail-in ballots when there is a much simpler solution: make election day "election week" instead, with polls open daily for several days and people assigned to a specific voting day based on first letter of last name or some such. Problem solved with minimal cost and little fuss.
I think these are both very good ideas. A confirmation that the vote has been received and logged would go a long way for many people. Election week or even just a block of days resolves so many issues. You would think the home country to the world's tech industry and a place where we could already file taxes electronically could make these ideas happen.

Of course there is no practical way to provide complete assurance that a national election vote makes it from the County to the State and then from the State count to the Feds.
But if a person is so consumed with mistrust and paranoia, then they probably need more help than voting and politics can provide.
And if the mistrust is widespread, then the voting process isn't really the problem, it's merely a symptom of much deeper societal issues.
I mean, there has to be some point at which trust can be found, and if that point just doesn't exist (anymore), then it's game over.
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