The Changing World Order: Dalio's Next Chapter

Other discussions not related to the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2035
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

The Changing World Order: Dalio's Next Chapter

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:51 pm

The Cycle of Internal Order and Disorder & Where We Are in It
How people are with each other is the primary driver of the outcomes they get. Within countries there are systems or “orders” for governing how people are supposed to behave with each other. These systems and the actual behaviors of people operating within them produce their consequences. In the next two chapters we will explore the timeless and universal cause/effect relationships that shape the internal orders that people have and the behaviors that drive the shifts between periods of order and periods of disorder.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/archetyp ... SLdQ%3D%3D
“On balance, the financial system subtracts value from society.”
― John C. Bogle
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The Changing World Order: Dalio's Next Chapter

Post by pmward » Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:20 pm

Very timely. Thanks for the share.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The Changing World Order: Dalio's Next Chapter

Post by pmward » Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:35 pm

BOOM:
"For as long as there has been recorded history, in almost all societies a very small percentage of the population (the “ruling classes” or “the elites”) controlled most of the wealth and the power (though those percentages have varied).[2] Naturally those who benefit from and control the system by and large like the system and work with each other to maintain it. Because those with wealth can influence those with power and because those with power can influence those with wealth, these ruling classes or elites have alliances between themselves and want to maintain the existing order with everyone following its dictums and laws, even as the system increases the gaps between those with power and wealth and those without them. As a result, all internal orders are run by certain classes of people who have wealth and power and who operate in symbiotic relationships with each other to maintain the order. Though aligned not to disrupt the order that benefits them, throughout time these elites have struggled with each other over wealth and power and also have struggled with non-elites who want wealth and power. When times are good and most people prosper, the struggles are smaller; when times are bad, the struggles are worse. And when things are very bad for a large percentage of the people—e.g., there is an unresolvable debt crisis, a very bad economy, a very bad act of nature —the resulting sufferings, stress, and struggles typically lead to revolutions and/or civil wars.

As Aristotle said a long time ago: “The poor and the rich quarrel with one another, and whichever side gets the better, instead of establishing a just or popular government, regards political supremacy as the prize of victory.”[3]

Classically, the big cycle transpires with periods of peace and productivity that increase wealth in a disproportionate way, which leads to a very small percentage of the population gaining and controlling exceptionally large percentages of the wealth and power, then becoming overextended, then encountering bad times that hurt those who are the least wealthy and powerful the hardest, which then leads to conflicts that produce revolutions and/or civil wars, which after completed, then lead to the creation of a new order and the cycle beginning again.

What drives these cycles is human nature. Because all people have that in common, people all over the world who face similar circumstances tend to deal with them similarly, which is what gives us the timeless and universal cause/effect relationships that we will explore in this and the next chapters. "
"I cannot overstate the importance of class struggles relative to individual struggles. We, especially those in the United States, which is a “melting pot,” tend to think more of individual struggles and not give adequate attention to class struggles. I didn’t fully realize its importance until I did my extensive study of history. My studying of history has led me to see it in a way that I hope I can convey.

In all countries throughout time (though in varying degrees) people have been typecast and placed within “classes” either because they have chosen to be with people like them or because others outside that group have typecast them, and power has been shared among three or four classes. How people are classed determines who their allies and enemies are. People are put into these classes whether they like it or not because all people stereotype. While 1) rich and poor and 2) right and left are the most common big class distinctions, there are many other distinctions around 3) race, 4) ethnicity, 5) religion, 6) gender, 7) lifestyle (e.g., liberal or conservative), and 8) location (e.g., urban versus rural). Generally speaking, people tend to cluster in these classes, and when times are good early in the cycle there is more harmony between these classes and when things are bad there is more fighting between them."
User avatar
Mountaineer
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4304
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:54 am

Re: The Changing World Order: Dalio's Next Chapter

Post by Mountaineer » Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:54 pm

pmward wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:35 pm
BOOM:
.
(Snip)
What drives these cycles is human nature. Because all people have that in common, people all over the world who face similar circumstances tend to deal with them similarly, which is what gives us the timeless and universal cause/effect relationships that we will explore in this and the next chapters. "
Makes sense to me. Human nature: is man inherently good or not? I think history is on the “not” side. The two greatest commandments by Jesus are love God with all your heart, strength, and mind and love neighbor as thyself. Major “fail” on these two for as long as we have been on this earth.
“He who denies the existence of God, has some reason for wishing that God did not exist.” — Augustine Of Hippo
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5369
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: The Changing World Order: Dalio's Next Chapter

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:09 pm

Mountaineer wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:54 pm
pmward wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:35 pm
BOOM:
.
(Snip)
What drives these cycles is human nature. Because all people have that in common, people all over the world who face similar circumstances tend to deal with them similarly, which is what gives us the timeless and universal cause/effect relationships that we will explore in this and the next chapters. "
Makes sense to me. Human nature: is man inherently good or not? I think history is on the “not” side. The two greatest commandments by Jesus are love God with all your heart, strength, and mind and love neighbor as thyself. Major “fail” on these two for as long as we have been on this earth.
I'd say, though not perfect, good. Otherwise we would never have had civilization as we have had it and, for certain, another atomic bomb would have been used at least once since it was last used on August 9, 1945.

Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
User avatar
Mountaineer
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4304
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:54 am

Re: The Changing World Order: Dalio's Next Chapter

Post by Mountaineer » Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:17 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:09 pm
Mountaineer wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:54 pm
pmward wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:35 pm
BOOM:
.
(Snip)
What drives these cycles is human nature. Because all people have that in common, people all over the world who face similar circumstances tend to deal with them similarly, which is what gives us the timeless and universal cause/effect relationships that we will explore in this and the next chapters. "
Makes sense to me. Human nature: is man inherently good or not? I think history is on the “not” side. The two greatest commandments by Jesus are love God with all your heart, strength, and mind and love neighbor as thyself. Major “fail” on these two for as long as we have been on this earth.
I'd say, though not perfect, good. Otherwise we would never have had civilization as we have had it and, for certain, another atomic bomb would have been used at least once since it was last used on August 9, 1945.

Vinny
Maybe. We shall see what happens as soon as someone develops a successful cheep radiation antidote for the masses of the asses.
“He who denies the existence of God, has some reason for wishing that God did not exist.” — Augustine Of Hippo
Post Reply