COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:00 pm

Xan wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:08 pm
Zdogg addresses this question:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cs4p-OG3RiE

Thanks to Mathjak for pointing me to this guy. He's pretty awesome.
I am lazy at heart ...I always try to seek out the smartest people I can find on whatever I need to know ...then I can stay a dummy

I guess that is why real estate mogul Bernie spitzer ended up my partner ...that way I got to use his smarts
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Mark Leavy » Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:29 pm

glennds wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:28 pm

My takeaway is that Harry Browne's individualism does not necessarily mean complete self interest (read selfishness) to the point of disregard for anyone else.
Harry often commented that different people have different utility functions that vary with their time horizons.

For someone with a very short time horizon, it makes sense to break a window and steal some shoes, as there is a clear immediate benefit. For someone that can imagine how it will affect his life in the long term, not so much.

I believe that Harry (selfishly) realized that his life would be better in the long term if societal issues were largely addressed. And that much more so if done in a non-coercive manner.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Tortoise » Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:34 pm

Xan wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:08 pm
Zdogg addresses this question:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cs4p-OG3RiE

Thanks to Mathjak for pointing me to this guy. He's pretty awesome.
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:21 pm
That is my go to expert..it is very interesting as far as this co virus stuff not being able to exist well together
Thanks, that was a pretty good video. Just so we're all aware, in that video Zdogg's theory about why the flu suddenly "disappeared" after Covid appeared isn't that it was because of Covid precautions (masks, distancing, etc.); he said it's because studies have shown that respiratory viral infections typically don't coexist very well. I.e., he's saying it's likely that the increase in Covid infections directly caused the decrease in flu infections.

I'm actually not yet convinced by Zdogg's coexistence argument since flu infections appeared to suddenly fall off a cliff, yet Covid didn't spread to the majority of the population right away. For example, almost a year passed before my wife and I (and several of my wife's family members) were infected with Covid. Given that fact, it would have made more sense to see flu infections decrease slowly over a number of months rather than suddenly fall off a cliff.

So I still think the theory that fits the observations better is that most cases that would have been diagnosed as the flu in previous years (based on symptoms, not viral tests since flu tests are not common) are now diagnosed as Covid. Not because of a conspiracy, but simply because everyone with flu-like symptoms is now given a Covid test, but almost never a flu test. Plus, a lot of Covid cases are "probable cases", meaning they're based only on symptoms rather than a viral test result. In many cases, those symptoms could be due to flu rather than Covid, but I don't think most doctors currently consider that possibility when making the diagnosis.

Unfortunately, Zdogg didn't even mention that as another possible explanation, despite it being a very simple and obvious one.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:58 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:00 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:10 am
By last summer I figured there wouldn’t be much flu because of the COVID precautions. I know you [SomeDude] don’t want to believe that, but I do.
If the Covid precautions worked so well for the flu, why didn't they also work for Covid?
Everyone at risk from the flu was already dead from Covid I guess. I must be the luckiest guy on Earth, i don't know a single person who has told me they know a single person who has died from it, or even gotten sick.

And i mean no offense to the people on the forum who've said they've lost friends or family. I just consider this the internet, and all that comes with that, and don't include people from the internet in my life experience.

Saying "i know a guy on the internet who goes by the handle KingKongAlBundy lost his great aunt from Covid" isn't really evidence of a pandemic.

If i went by what I've seen from my non internet life which includes tons of people in the medical industry and about 90 days in a hospital myself last year.....Covid looks like a total hoax still.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:37 pm

Phew , we know so many who had it bad , my wife and I included as well as so many that died I couldn’t even remember every one .it is easier to name those that died that we know than those who had to go to the emergency room or be admitted

The tristate area was rampant
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by pp4me » Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:13 pm

I also haven't met a single person who has even gotten COVID. A barber told me she had a friend who got it but didn't even pass it on to her family but that is actually the closest I've gotten to any real world contact with the virus - the rest is all on television or the internet.

I'm excluding the members of this forum just like I do famous people who got it because I'm talking about people I come into contact with face-to-face or at least one level removed.

With 500k deaths out of 330 million people, mostly affecting the elderly, that probably isn't surprising.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:45 pm

pp4me wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:13 pm
I also haven't met a single person who has even gotten COVID. A barber told me she had a friend who got it but didn't even pass it on to her family but that is actually the closest I've gotten to any real world contact with the virus - the rest is all on television or the internet.

I'm excluding the members of this forum just like I do famous people who got it because I'm talking about people I come into contact with face-to-face or at least one level removed.

With 500k deaths out of 330 million people, mostly affecting the elderly, that probably isn't surprising.
You're in Pinellas right PP? So am I. North st. Pete lil west of 19.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by pp4me » Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:46 pm

SomeDude wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:45 pm
pp4me wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:13 pm
I also haven't met a single person who has even gotten COVID. A barber told me she had a friend who got it but didn't even pass it on to her family but that is actually the closest I've gotten to any real world contact with the virus - the rest is all on television or the internet.

I'm excluding the members of this forum just like I do famous people who got it because I'm talking about people I come into contact with face-to-face or at least one level removed.

With 500k deaths out of 330 million people, mostly affecting the elderly, that probably isn't surprising.
You're in Pinellas right PP? So am I. North st. Pete lil west of 19.
Yes I am. Hi neighbor. I live in Oldsmar.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:06 pm

pp4me wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:46 pm
SomeDude wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:45 pm
pp4me wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:13 pm
I also haven't met a single person who has even gotten COVID. A barber told me she had a friend who got it but didn't even pass it on to her family but that is actually the closest I've gotten to any real world contact with the virus - the rest is all on television or the internet.

I'm excluding the members of this forum just like I do famous people who got it because I'm talking about people I come into contact with face-to-face or at least one level removed.

With 500k deaths out of 330 million people, mostly affecting the elderly, that probably isn't surprising.
You're in Pinellas right PP? So am I. North st. Pete lil west of 19.
Yes I am. Hi neighbor. I live in Oldsmar.
Cool. I've lived in Clearwater, Dunedin, Crystal Beach and Seminole. Played a lot of tennis in oldsmar.

Supposedly we've had 1,500 covid-related deaths in our county of 1M which is right in line with the rest of the country. We do have an older pop though with about double the national average of folks over 65. I'm guess that's nearly all the deaths and they mostly all had co-morbidities.

For me Covid is something on TV or the internet that for some reason people wear masks now and bars close early. I've gone back to the office and take my mask off at my desk, even though we work in a big open floor.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by pp4me » Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:26 pm

SomeDude wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:06 pm
pp4me wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:46 pm
SomeDude wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:45 pm
pp4me wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:13 pm
I also haven't met a single person who has even gotten COVID. A barber told me she had a friend who got it but didn't even pass it on to her family but that is actually the closest I've gotten to any real world contact with the virus - the rest is all on television or the internet.

I'm excluding the members of this forum just like I do famous people who got it because I'm talking about people I come into contact with face-to-face or at least one level removed.

With 500k deaths out of 330 million people, mostly affecting the elderly, that probably isn't surprising.
You're in Pinellas right PP? So am I. North st. Pete lil west of 19.
Yes I am. Hi neighbor. I live in Oldsmar.
Cool. I've lived in Clearwater, Dunedin, Crystal Beach and Seminole. Played a lot of tennis in oldsmar.

Supposedly we've had 1,500 covid-related deaths in our county of 1M which is right in line with the rest of the country. We do have an older pop though with about double the national average of folks over 65. I'm guess that's nearly all the deaths and they mostly all had co-morbidities.

For me Covid is something on TV or the internet that for some reason people wear masks now and bars close early. I've gone back to the office and take my mask off at my desk, even though we work in a big open floor.
Don't mean to minimize the experience of others like Mathjak but when you look at the statistics his seems to be more of an outlier than our own. I would most definitely take it more serious than I am if I was him.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:52 pm

We have lost 1 out of 9 people over 70 in nyc who had covid
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by jalanlong » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:01 pm

SomeDude wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:58 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:00 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:10 am
By last summer I figured there wouldn’t be much flu because of the COVID precautions. I know you [SomeDude] don’t want to believe that, but I do.
If the Covid precautions worked so well for the flu, why didn't they also work for Covid?
Everyone at risk from the flu was already dead from Covid I guess. I must be the luckiest guy on Earth, i don't know a single person who has told me they know a single person who has died from it, or even gotten sick.

And i mean no offense to the people on the forum who've said they've lost friends or family. I just consider this the internet, and all that comes with that, and don't include people from the internet in my life experience.

Saying "i know a guy on the internet who goes by the handle KingKongAlBundy lost his great aunt from Covid" isn't really evidence of a pandemic.

If i went by what I've seen from my non internet life which includes tons of people in the medical industry and about 90 days in a hospital myself last year.....Covid looks like a total hoax still.
I would second that. In a year only one person in my office even thought they got it. They took a rapid test that came out positive and then got a doctor’s office test that came out negative. Despite that i still have a great number of co-workers who are scared and think any day is their day to die.

My son’s school has around 500 teachers and students. Since it opened up in September, they have had 4 “cases” meaning positive tests. No deaths.

Nobody in my family has gotten it except for an aunt. She is in her 70s and very sickly and even she got over in within a week.

So I agree, if I went from my personal universe this is the biggest nothing burger/ overreaction of my lifetime.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:20 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:38 pm
SomeDude wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:58 pm

Saying "i know a guy on the internet who goes by the handle KingKongAlBundy lost his great aunt from Covid" isn't really evidence of a pandemic.
I know 500,000 Americans who died of Covid. They were all my brothers or sisters. Dead.
I assume you're referring to the way the racist virus deliberately targets African Americans.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by pp4me » Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:48 pm

SomeDude wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:20 pm
tomfoolery wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:38 pm
SomeDude wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:58 pm

Saying "i know a guy on the internet who goes by the handle KingKongAlBundy lost his great aunt from Covid" isn't really evidence of a pandemic.
I know 500,000 Americans who died of Covid. They were all my brothers or sisters. Dead.
I assume you're referring to the way the racist virus deliberately targets African Americans.
Just a guess from an uneducated source but if Covid disproportionately affects African Americans as well as other dark-skinned people more than Caucasians it might have much less do to with racism than Vitamin D.

Then again, I'm not a politician so what do I know?
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Mark Leavy » Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:56 pm

pp4me wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:48 pm

Just a guess from an uneducated source but if Covid disproportionately affects African Americans as well as other dark-skinned people more than Caucasians it might have much less do to with racism than Vitamin D.

Then again, I'm not a politician so what do I know?
Vitamin D is a likely factor, but probably not primary. Add it in to the mix of obesity, Type 2 diabetes and eating crap foods. All of which neuter the immune system. The African American community is disproportionally represented in all of the risk factors.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by WiseOne » Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:32 am

Mark Leavy wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:56 pm
pp4me wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:48 pm

Just a guess from an uneducated source but if Covid disproportionately affects African Americans as well as other dark-skinned people more than Caucasians it might have much less do to with racism than Vitamin D.

Then again, I'm not a politician so what do I know?
Vitamin D is a likely factor, but probably not primary. Add it in to the mix of obesity, Type 2 diabetes and eating crap foods. All of which neuter the immune system. The African American community is disproportionally represented in all of the risk factors.
Not just African Americans...Hispanics too.

I thought this was all bodega syndrome, i.e. what happens when you eat a cheap, sugary grain-based diet. Plus the vitamin D issue which is definitely a major factor. But, look at the high death rates in Peru and Ecuador, where there's no shortage of sun exposure and the USDA's long arm does not reach. Maybe there is a genetic basis contributing as well. (The whole "racism" thing is of course laughable.)

I saw an interesting PBS documentary about small English villages that survived the Black Death. A genetics study of descendants of survivors still living in those villages revealed a high incidence of a particular gene linked to immune proteins (sorry I forget exactly what it was). If this gene (and probably others that were not studied) was protective, then the Black Death effectively selected for it in the European population. Since African and Hispanic (i.e. native American) populations didn't get hit with the Black Death, they wouldn't have undergone this selection process and hence may fare worse with infectious diseases than people of European descent. This is just a hypothesis, but it sounds intriguing.

I think it's also the case that these same populations do worse with other bugs, such as the flu. It's not just COVID that they have a problem with.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:28 am

WiseOne wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:32 am
I saw an interesting PBS documentary about small English villages that survived the Black Death. A genetics study of descendants of survivors still living in those villages revealed a high incidence of a particular gene linked to immune proteins (sorry I forget exactly what it was). If this gene (and probably others that were not studied) was protective, then the Black Death effectively selected for it in the European population. Since African and Hispanic (i.e. native American) populations didn't get hit with the Black Death, they wouldn't have undergone this selection process and hence may fare worse with infectious diseases than people of European descent. This is just a hypothesis, but it sounds intriguing.

I think it's also the case that these same populations do worse with other bugs, such as the flu. It's not just COVID that they have a problem with.
I think I had posted this last year, but in case you missed it, you might find it interesting.
Coronaviruses infect lung tissue via a receptor, ACE2, that varies structurally not only between Asians and other human groups but also between different Asian groups. In particular, the Chinese population has fewer alleles that code for weak binding to the coronavirus S-protein (Cao et al. 2020). Different ACE2 alleles are also associated with differences in susceptibility to diabetic retinopathy, an eye disease with a distinct global pattern of prevalence: 22% in Italy, 23% in China, 30% in the United Kingdom, and 40% in the United States (Adams 2020).

This geographic pattern doesn’t exist because some populations have become more resistant to coronaviruses. Instead, the reverse seems to have happened: some populations have become more susceptible to coronavirus infection, perhaps as a means to prevent more serious pulmonary infections, like tuberculosis and pneumonic plague (Shekhar et al. 2017). Such an effect has been shown with γherpesvirus 68 and cytomegalovirus (Barton et al. 2007; Miller et al. 2019). This crude vaccination boosts the immune response through increased production of IFN-γ and increased activation of macrophages.

Historically, tuberculosis was especially common in crowded environments, where people lived in proximity not only to each other but also to domesticated animals (Comas et al. 2013). Such environments have existed continuously for the longest time in China, as well as in areas like the Indo-Gangetic Plain, the Fertile Crescent, and the Mediterranean Basin. Those areas are where people should be most susceptible to coronavirus infection.

This may explain why COVID-19 has been more severe in southern Europe than in northern Europe. It is surprising that infection tends to become less severe with latitude when one would expect the opposite: respiratory viruses spread more effectively under conditions of lower temperature, lower humidity, and lower solar UV.
link
And also:
ACE2 is a cell receptor that mediates the infection of lung tissue by coronaviruses, either the one that causes COVID-19 or others that cause the common cold. The ACE2 gene has 1,700 alleles, some of which are associated with increased susceptibility to coronavirus infection (Frost 2020).

This difference in susceptibility has been shown in a recent Indian study (Srivastava et al. 2020). COVID-19 is most fatal in the western states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Punjab. Conversely, it is least fatal in the northeast states of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and Nagaland. This pattern closely correlates with genetic variation at the rs2285666 locus of ACE2. The presence or absence of a single allele explains 35% of the variation in the COVID-19 case-fatality rate.

The authors conclude that some kind of selection has been acting on rs2285666. If we look at the map, susceptibility to COVID-19 seems to be strongest in those regions with the longest history of sedentary living and large urban centers. Conversely, it seems to be weakest in the Northeast, which is home to people who, until recent times, belonged to small communities that routinely moved from one cultivable area to another.

These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the ACE2 receptor has coevolved with human environments.
link
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by WiseOne » Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:31 pm

I did miss it Kriegspiel, thanks. Great information.

In any case, it certainly is far more reasonable to look for causes of racial outcome disparity in genetics, than in supposing that a virus that doesn't have a brain is racist. Not to mention that "health care disparities" is a fondly held liberal myth. The racial disparities are plenty striking in states like New York, in which the lions share of state spending goes to Medicaid, and the black/Hispanic population in consequence has better health coverage than the general population. Also, "health care disparities" and "racism" wouldn't explain Peru & Ecuador.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by barrett » Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:57 pm

On the narrative of Covid being worse for Blacks and Latinos...

I have heard this virtually non-stop in recent months and never bothered to check the numbers online. Here's what I found with a quick google search:

As of 2019, here is the distribution of the U.S. population by race and ethnicity:

White: 60.1% (Non-Hispanic)
Hispanic: 18.5%
Black: 12.2%
Asian: 5.6%
Multiple Races: 2.8%
American Indian/Alaska Native: 0.7%
Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander: 0.2%

And here is a link for U.S. Covid deaths by race through 2/17 (apologies but this one is in bar graph form):

https://www.statista.com/statistics/112 ... y-race-us/

So the narrative as judged strictly by deaths up to this point is false. In other words, here in the US, Covid deaths match up almost exactly with racial distribution.

I was curious to look into this as I have seen for months that Covid doesn't seem to be nearly as bad in sub-Sahara Africa as it is in Europe and the U.S..

Also, WiseOne, note that according to the Worldometers Covid data, Peru and Ecuador rank 19th and 39th respectively in terms of deaths per million. So still high but not at the very top of the list.

Here is that Worldometers link:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Tortoise » Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:07 pm

barrett wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:57 pm
I was curious to look into this as I have seen for months that Covid doesn't seem to be nearly as bad in sub-Sahara Africa as it is in Europe and the U.S..
Africa has a much younger population than the US and Europe: Median age of 19.7 compared to 38.1 and 42.5, respectively.

Age is the biggest risk factor for Covid, so that explains most of the difference.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by barrett » Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:15 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:07 pm
barrett wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:57 pm
I was curious to look into this as I have seen for months that Covid doesn't seem to be nearly as bad in sub-Sahara Africa as it is in Europe and the U.S..
Africa has a much younger population than the US and Europe: Median age of 19.7 compared to 38.1 and 42.5, respectively.

Age is the biggest risk factor for Covid, so that explains most of the difference.
You are, of course, correct, Tortoise. But my main point was that the White/Black/Latino narrative appears to be false.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Tortoise » Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:45 pm

I wouldn’t necessarily call it false per se. Race/ethnicity just shouldn’t be considered in isolation. It needs to be considered in combination with age and other risk factors.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Feb 24, 2021 7:21 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:38 pm
SomeDude wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:58 pm

Saying "i know a guy on the internet who goes by the handle KingKongAlBundy lost his great aunt from Covid" isn't really evidence of a pandemic.
I know 500,000 Americans who died of Covid. They were all my brothers or sisters. Dead.
From August 2020.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by WiseOne » Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:40 pm

barrett wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:57 pm
On the narrative of Covid being worse for Blacks and Latinos...

I have heard this virtually non-stop in recent months and never bothered to check the numbers online. Here's what I found with a quick google search:

As of 2019, here is the distribution of the U.S. population by race and ethnicity:

White: 60.1% (Non-Hispanic)
Hispanic: 18.5%
Black: 12.2%
Asian: 5.6%
Multiple Races: 2.8%
American Indian/Alaska Native: 0.7%
Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander: 0.2%

And here is a link for U.S. Covid deaths by race through 2/17 (apologies but this one is in bar graph form):

https://www.statista.com/statistics/112 ... y-race-us/

So the narrative as judged strictly by deaths up to this point is false. In other words, here in the US, Covid deaths match up almost exactly with racial distribution.

I was curious to look into this as I have seen for months that Covid doesn't seem to be nearly as bad in sub-Sahara Africa as it is in Europe and the U.S..

Also, WiseOne, note that according to the Worldometers Covid data, Peru and Ecuador rank 19th and 39th respectively in terms of deaths per million. So still high but not at the very top of the list.

Here is that Worldometers link:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
This is quite puzzling! Here's the CDC's numbers:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... icity.html

yet, when I look up cases & deaths by demographics on the same website, they don't support those multipliers.

Something is indeed weird about these numbers. And, I know I saw #s earlier for Peru and Ecuador that showed an outsized case load....again I think on the CDC's website.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:28 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:52 pm
We have lost 1 out of 9 people over 70 in nyc who had covid
The people who officially "have" Covid are a subset of the people who actually contract it. People over 70 who officially have it would be much more likely to have been exhibiting symptoms than younger people, which prompted getting tested. Younger people are more likely to be randomly tested as a consequence of work.

So you've got a group of people over 70, likely to be exhibiting symptoms or in a nursing facility, likely to be in the unhealthiest 50% of an already high mortality group dying at the rate of 11%. Since the average life expectancy is 81, is this even any change? Isn't covid disproportionately affecting men? Don't men already have a life expectancy of 76 or 77?

If you told me 11% of people die annually over the age of 70 who get the flu in NYC and 60% of them are men, would that even sound like a thing?

If you said 50% ok, that would sound like a thing.

And yes, 70 is still young. But "over 70" includes 75, 80, 85, etc. At a certain age in your 70s, EVERYONE has an 11% chance of dying each year for any reason under the sun.

MJ those numbers don't sound like coronavirus is even a factor. Since almost no one under the age of 70 is at risk of dying either.......why did so many lives have to be ruined again? Its heartbreaking what the Americans will tolerate. The future does not look bright.
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