Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

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SomeDude
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:18 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:36 pm
Xan wrote:
Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:18 am
SomeDude wrote:
Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:16 pm
I'm in the most densely populated county in the state and have still not heard of a single person hospitalized for Covid or even someone that someone knows. It's very odd don't you think?
I know it's hard to step back from making it all about you, but here's a recent poll:
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/8w7calyx30/ ... Report.pdf
see pages 17 and 18 where 29% of people have lost a family member or close friend to Covid. A full 25% of Trump voters say they have seen a family member or close friend die from Covid. Are they in on this grand conspiracy also?
Math is not necessarily my strong suit. But if 600k people have died from Covid and there are 328 million people in the US, that is a death rate of .01. How on earth would 29% of citizens know someone who has died of it? That seems highly unlikely. Or are they counting celebrities like Charlie Pride or the whole I heard about a person at work whose sister’s boyfriend died of it kinda thing. But that doesn’t count as family member or close friend.
Even if you believe all 600k people counted as covid deaths are real, (which is absurd) i think this implies that each one of them must have 160 close friends and family for this ummm....stat to be true. If half the covid numbers are fake it gets really laughable. Did i mention there would also have to be zero overlap in the close friends and family or it gets even higher.

Add to that the average age of an alleged covid death. You think a lot of 80 year olds and up have 300 or 400 close friends and family?

Just another silly fake number.

If anybody sees a flaw in my math please help. Im making dinner and taking care of a baby while typing.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by jalanlong » Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:48 pm

vnatale wrote:
Thu Aug 05, 2021 1:08 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:36 pm
Xan wrote:
Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:18 am
SomeDude wrote:
Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:16 pm
I'm in the most densely populated county in the state and have still not heard of a single person hospitalized for Covid or even someone that someone knows. It's very odd don't you think?
I know it's hard to step back from making it all about you, but here's a recent poll:
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/8w7calyx30/ ... Report.pdf
see pages 17 and 18 where 29% of people have lost a family member or close friend to Covid. A full 25% of Trump voters say they have seen a family member or close friend die from Covid. Are they in on this grand conspiracy also?
Math is not necessarily my strong suit. But if 600k people have died from Covid and there are 328 million people in the US, that is a death rate of .01. How on earth would 29% of citizens know someone who has died of it? That seems highly unlikely. Or are they counting celebrities like Charlie Pride or the whole I heard about a person at work whose sister’s boyfriend died of it kinda thing. But that doesn’t count as family member or close friend.
That would put it somewhat similar to deaths from cancer?

https://www.cdc.gov/cancer/dcpc/researc ... /index.htm

"Cancer was the second leading cause of death, after heart disease, in the United States in 2019. In 2019, there were 599,601 cancer deaths; 283,725 were among females and 315,876 among males."

What would your guess be of what percentage of citizens know someone who has died from cancer?
To answer your question directly, it would depend on what you meant by close friend or family. That was the original statistical question. If you stuck with immediate family and close friends I would once again say that nowhere close to 29% of people have experienced a cancer death that fits in those two groups in the last 18 months.

But again it depends on how wide of a net that you cast. If you have 15 immediate family members and 10 close friends, then you are saying 1 out of those 25 people dies of cancer for almost a third of citizens every year. The number of cancer deaths does not support that high figure.

Although in reality the entire poll question is meaningless given that one death can be represented hundreds of times by every family member or friend the deceased had. The question itself was designed to inflate the perceived death toll by focusing on the number of lives that were seemingly affected, no matter how auxiliary.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by KayFaybe » Fri Aug 06, 2021 11:24 am

jalanlong wrote:
Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:36 pm
Xan wrote:
Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:18 am
I know it's hard to step back from making it all about you, but here's a recent poll:
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/8w7calyx30/ ... Report.pdf
see pages 17 and 18 where 29% of people have lost a family member or close friend to Covid. A full 25% of Trump voters say they have seen a family member or close friend die from Covid. Are they in on this grand conspiracy also?
Math is not necessarily my strong suit. But if 600k people have died from Covid and there are 328 million people in the US, that is a death rate of .01. How on earth would 29% of citizens know someone who has died of it? That seems highly unlikely. Or are they counting celebrities like Charlie Pride or the whole I heard about a person at work whose sister’s boyfriend died of it kinda thing. But that doesn’t count as family member or close friend.
Long-time lurker here. I can help with the math part. But then I'm going to need your help.

If 600k people have died from Covid out of 328 million, then we can say the fraction of U.S. people that died is 0.6/328 = 0.0018 (0.18%).

I search a bit on-line for an estimate of how many people the average person "knows". This link indicates an answer of 600. However, the link is from the New York Times. As a long-time conservative/anarchist/Republican, I know the New York Times is not to be trusted about anything. However, being that the New York Times is also stupid, the article also reveals a lower number of 290 that was the previously accepted answer. So let's go with that.

If the fraction of people that died is 0.0018, then the fraction of people that *haven't* died is 0.9982. Now, if the average person "knows" 290 people, then the chance that everyone they know has survived COVID is 0.9982 raised to the 290th power (i.e. 0.9982 multiplied by itself 290 times). And (0.9982^290) = 0.593. So that also means that the chance that a person knows at least one person who died from COVID is 1 - 0.593 = 0.407. This is in the same ballpark as the numbers Xan quoted.

So you can see my conundrum. I've obviously made an error here, as there is no way that the math could give an answer that confirms something that we know is wrong. So I'm hoping you all can figure out my error. Clearly the math that I applied here was just woke nonsense -- there is no other explanation. I mean, nobody here on this forum knows anyone who has died from COVID, right?

Perhaps I'm suffering from a Stockholm syndrome of some sort.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by jalanlong » Fri Aug 06, 2021 11:50 am

KayFaybe wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 11:24 am
jalanlong wrote:
Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:36 pm
Xan wrote:
Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:18 am
I know it's hard to step back from making it all about you, but here's a recent poll:
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/8w7calyx30/ ... Report.pdf
see pages 17 and 18 where 29% of people have lost a family member or close friend to Covid. A full 25% of Trump voters say they have seen a family member or close friend die from Covid. Are they in on this grand conspiracy also?
Math is not necessarily my strong suit. But if 600k people have died from Covid and there are 328 million people in the US, that is a death rate of .01. How on earth would 29% of citizens know someone who has died of it? That seems highly unlikely. Or are they counting celebrities like Charlie Pride or the whole I heard about a person at work whose sister’s boyfriend died of it kinda thing. But that doesn’t count as family member or close friend.
Long-time lurker here. I can help with the math part. But then I'm going to need your help.

If 600k people have died from Covid out of 328 million, then we can say the fraction of U.S. people that died is 0.6/328 = 0.0018 (0.18%).

I search a bit on-line for an estimate of how many people the average person "knows". This link indicates an answer of 600. However, the link is from the New York Times. As a long-time conservative/anarchist/Republican, I know the New York Times is not to be trusted about anything. However, being that the New York Times is also stupid, the article also reveals a lower number of 290 that was the previously accepted answer. So let's go with that.

If the fraction of people that died is 0.0018, then the fraction of people that *haven't* died is 0.9982. Now, if the average person "knows" 290 people, then the chance that everyone they know has survived COVID is 0.9982 raised to the 290th power (i.e. 0.9982 multiplied by itself 290 times). And (0.9982^290) = 0.593. So that also means that the chance that a person knows at least one person who died from COVID is 1 - 0.593 = 0.407. This is in the same ballpark as the numbers Xan quoted.

So you can see my conundrum. I've obviously made an error here, as there is no way that the math could give an answer that confirms something that we know is wrong. So I'm hoping you all can figure out my error. Clearly the math that I applied here was just woke nonsense -- there is no other explanation. I mean, nobody here on this forum knows anyone who has died from COVID, right?

Perhaps I'm suffering from a Stockholm syndrome of some sort.
But the original statistic did not say “knows” someone, it said close friend or family member. I dont believe that would equal 290 people unless family goes way way up the tree.

I have known no one who has died or been hospitalized. And i am stretching know into anyone i know of personally, not celebrities. However, if we use “know” i would agree 29% of people might indeed know someone who died. Because of course 1 dead person can be known by hundreds of people.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by KayFaybe » Fri Aug 06, 2021 12:15 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 11:50 am
KayFaybe wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 11:24 am
Long-time lurker here. I can help with the math part. But then I'm going to need your help.

If 600k people have died from Covid out of 328 million, then we can say the fraction of U.S. people that died is 0.6/328 = 0.0018 (0.18%).

I search a bit on-line for an estimate of how many people the average person "knows". This link indicates an answer of 600. However, the link is from the New York Times. As a long-time conservative/anarchist/Republican, I know the New York Times is not to be trusted about anything. However, being that the New York Times is also stupid, the article also reveals a lower number of 290 that was the previously accepted answer. So let's go with that.

If the fraction of people that died is 0.0018, then the fraction of people that *haven't* died is 0.9982. Now, if the average person "knows" 290 people, then the chance that everyone they know has survived COVID is 0.9982 raised to the 290th power (i.e. 0.9982 multiplied by itself 290 times). And (0.9982^290) = 0.593. So that also means that the chance that a person knows at least one person who died from COVID is 1 - 0.593 = 0.407. This is in the same ballpark as the numbers Xan quoted.

So you can see my conundrum. I've obviously made an error here, as there is no way that the math could give an answer that confirms something that we know is wrong. So I'm hoping you all can figure out my error. Clearly the math that I applied here was just woke nonsense -- there is no other explanation. I mean, nobody here on this forum knows anyone who has died from COVID, right?

Perhaps I'm suffering from a Stockholm syndrome of some sort.
But the original statistic did not say “knows” someone, it said close friend or family member. I dont believe that would equal 290 people unless family goes way way up the tree.

I have known no one who has died or been hospitalized. And i am stretching know into anyone i know of personally, not celebrities. However, if we use “know” i would agree 29% of people might indeed know someone who died. Because of course 1 dead person can be known by hundreds of people.
FWIW, if I lower the "knows" number from 290 to 100 (it seems possible that someone might have 100 close friends or family members), the math still works out to saying there is a 0.165 chance that a person knows someone who died from COVID. It is still in the same ballpark as the survey number. And, again, this is CLEARLY wrong. The math MUST give an answer of 0.000. Or at least give an answer of 0.000 for Trump voters. Full stop.

I must admit that I am disappointed and somewhat suspicious that you failed to address the woke math issue.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by jalanlong » Fri Aug 06, 2021 12:34 pm

KayFaybe wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 12:15 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 11:50 am
KayFaybe wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 11:24 am
Long-time lurker here. I can help with the math part. But then I'm going to need your help.

If 600k people have died from Covid out of 328 million, then we can say the fraction of U.S. people that died is 0.6/328 = 0.0018 (0.18%).

I search a bit on-line for an estimate of how many people the average person "knows". This link indicates an answer of 600. However, the link is from the New York Times. As a long-time conservative/anarchist/Republican, I know the New York Times is not to be trusted about anything. However, being that the New York Times is also stupid, the article also reveals a lower number of 290 that was the previously accepted answer. So let's go with that.

If the fraction of people that died is 0.0018, then the fraction of people that *haven't* died is 0.9982. Now, if the average person "knows" 290 people, then the chance that everyone they know has survived COVID is 0.9982 raised to the 290th power (i.e. 0.9982 multiplied by itself 290 times). And (0.9982^290) = 0.593. So that also means that the chance that a person knows at least one person who died from COVID is 1 - 0.593 = 0.407. This is in the same ballpark as the numbers Xan quoted.

So you can see my conundrum. I've obviously made an error here, as there is no way that the math could give an answer that confirms something that we know is wrong. So I'm hoping you all can figure out my error. Clearly the math that I applied here was just woke nonsense -- there is no other explanation. I mean, nobody here on this forum knows anyone who has died from COVID, right?

Perhaps I'm suffering from a Stockholm syndrome of some sort.
But the original statistic did not say “knows” someone, it said close friend or family member. I dont believe that would equal 290 people unless family goes way way up the tree.

I have known no one who has died or been hospitalized. And i am stretching know into anyone i know of personally, not celebrities. However, if we use “know” i would agree 29% of people might indeed know someone who died. Because of course 1 dead person can be known by hundreds of people.
FWIW, if I lower the "knows" number from 290 to 100 (it seems possible that someone might have 100 close friends or family members), the math still works out to saying there is a 0.165 chance that a person knows someone who died from COVID. It is still in the same ballpark as the survey number. And, again, this is CLEARLY wrong. The math MUST give an answer of 0.000. Or at least give an answer of 0.000 for Trump voters. Full stop.

I must admit that I am disappointed and somewhat suspicious that you failed to address the woke math issue.
I am not sure I would put 16% in the same ballpark as 29% as it is almost double. I would not have been nearly as suspicious of 16% of people having a connection to a Covid death.

The real point is that the entire Covid mess has been full of headlines and polls/studies like that which are meant to provoke a certain reaction one way or the other but if anyone thinks about them you can easily see the vague terminology used to get to the headline they want.

I saw an anti-vax group post something on FB last night stating that the CEO of Pfizer had not gotten his shot which sent them into a tizzy about what he knows that nobody else knows. But anyone who actually read the article clearly saw it was from March when most people weren’t vaccinated yet. The CEO got his first shot but didn’t want to leap over unvaxxed people to get the 2nd. Both sides do a disservice to their argument when pushing headlines meant only to get their side riled up.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:26 pm

KayFaybe wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 12:15 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 11:50 am
KayFaybe wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 11:24 am
Long-time lurker here. I can help with the math part. But then I'm going to need your help.

If 600k people have died from Covid out of 328 million, then we can say the fraction of U.S. people that died is 0.6/328 = 0.0018 (0.18%).

I search a bit on-line for an estimate of how many people the average person "knows". This link indicates an answer of 600. However, the link is from the New York Times. As a long-time conservative/anarchist/Republican, I know the New York Times is not to be trusted about anything. However, being that the New York Times is also stupid, the article also reveals a lower number of 290 that was the previously accepted answer. So let's go with that.

If the fraction of people that died is 0.0018, then the fraction of people that *haven't* died is 0.9982. Now, if the average person "knows" 290 people, then the chance that everyone they know has survived COVID is 0.9982 raised to the 290th power (i.e. 0.9982 multiplied by itself 290 times). And (0.9982^290) = 0.593. So that also means that the chance that a person knows at least one person who died from COVID is 1 - 0.593 = 0.407. This is in the same ballpark as the numbers Xan quoted.

So you can see my conundrum. I've obviously made an error here, as there is no way that the math could give an answer that confirms something that we know is wrong. So I'm hoping you all can figure out my error. Clearly the math that I applied here was just woke nonsense -- there is no other explanation. I mean, nobody here on this forum knows anyone who has died from COVID, right?

Perhaps I'm suffering from a Stockholm syndrome of some sort.
But the original statistic did not say “knows” someone, it said close friend or family member. I dont believe that would equal 290 people unless family goes way way up the tree.

I have known no one who has died or been hospitalized. And i am stretching know into anyone i know of personally, not celebrities. However, if we use “know” i would agree 29% of people might indeed know someone who died. Because of course 1 dead person can be known by hundreds of people.
FWIW, if I lower the "knows" number from 290 to 100 (it seems possible that someone might have 100 close friends or family members), the math still works out to saying there is a 0.165 chance that a person knows someone who died from COVID. It is still in the same ballpark as the survey number. And, again, this is CLEARLY wrong. The math MUST give an answer of 0.000. Or at least give an answer of 0.000 for Trump voters. Full stop.

I must admit that I am disappointed and somewhat suspicious that you failed to address the woke math issue.
It would only be 16% if none of those people knew more than one person right? And again this assumes 600k is real (laughable) and again you're not taking into account the avg age of alleged covid deaths, nor the "relative or close friend" comment.

My back of the napkin guess is less than 1% of the US has a close friend or relative they know that has actually died "from covid".
Last edited by SomeDude on Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:27 pm

I can't remember if I had posted this graph when I saw it, it's about a year old:
1233sss.png
1233sss.png (107.7 KiB) Viewed 3448 times
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:43 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:27 pm
I can't remember if I had posted this graph when I saw it, it's about a year old:

1233sss.png
This must be facebook people, and who the Hell are "others"? Must be Asian. That number seems believable.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Aug 06, 2021 5:07 pm

SomeDude wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:43 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:27 pm
I can't remember if I had posted this graph when I saw it, it's about a year old:

1233sss.png
This must be facebook people
The younger age groups demand even more scrutiny:

"The poll of 1,254 adults aged 18 and older found that 27 percent of millennials have no close friends, 25 percent have no “acquaintances” and 22 percent — or 1 in 5 — have no buddies at all."

"On the bright side, close to half — 49 percent — of millennials said they had one to four “close friends” and 70 percent said they had at least one “best friend.” Although, based on the other stats, that best friend is possibly their only friend."

heh
and who the Hell are "others"? Must be Asian. That number seems believable.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Xan » Fri Aug 06, 2021 5:17 pm

SomeDude wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:26 pm
It would only be 16% if none of those people knew more than one person right?
I'm not following this part. KayFaybe went through the math and made no such assumption.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by KayFaybe » Fri Aug 06, 2021 9:49 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 12:34 pm
KayFaybe wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 12:15 pm
KayFaybe wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 11:24 am
...
If the fraction of people that died is 0.0018, then the fraction of people that *haven't* died is 0.9982. Now, if the average person "knows" 290 people, then the chance that everyone they know has survived COVID is 0.9982 raised to the 290th power (i.e. 0.9982 multiplied by itself 290 times). And (0.9982^290) = 0.593. So that also means that the chance that a person knows at least one person who died from COVID is 1 - 0.593 = 0.407. This is in the same ballpark as the numbers Xan quoted.

So you can see my conundrum. I've obviously made an error here, as there is no way that the math could give an answer that confirms something that we know is wrong. So I'm hoping you all can figure out my error. Clearly the math that I applied here was just woke nonsense -- there is no other explanation. I mean, nobody here on this forum knows anyone who has died from COVID, right?

Perhaps I'm suffering from a Stockholm syndrome of some sort.
FWIW, if I lower the "knows" number from 290 to 100 (it seems possible that someone might have 100 close friends or family members), the math still works out to saying there is a 0.165 chance that a person knows someone who died from COVID. It is still in the same ballpark as the survey number. And, again, this is CLEARLY wrong. The math MUST give an answer of 0.000. Or at least give an answer of 0.000 for Trump voters. Full stop.

I must admit that I am disappointed and somewhat suspicious that you failed to address the woke math issue.
I am not sure I would put 16% in the same ballpark as 29% as it is almost double. I would not have been nearly as suspicious of 16% of people having a connection to a Covid death.
My experience is that when doing a rough order of magnitude estimate, 16% vs. 29% would be viewed as pretty close.

But as a long-time conservative/anarchist/Republican, I'm really trying to understand where I've gone wrong here. I feel somewhat awkward posting this again, but clearly math MUST give an answer of 0.000. Or 0.000000001 at the most, should it not? All I'm asking for is for you to tell me where the wokeness comes in. And, like I said, the fact that you haven't done so yet, jalanlong, makes me very suspicious that you might be one of THEM.
The real point is that the entire Covid mess has been full of headlines and polls/studies like that which are meant to provoke a certain reaction one way or the other but if anyone thinks about them you can easily see the vague terminology used to get to the headline they want.

I saw an anti-vax group post something on FB last night stating that the CEO of Pfizer had not gotten his shot which sent them into a tizzy about what he knows that nobody else knows. But anyone who actually read the article clearly saw it was from March when most people weren’t vaccinated yet. The CEO got his first shot but didn’t want to leap over unvaxxed people to get the 2nd.
Wait, what?

There is no WAY that any of the above could possibly be true.

As any long-time conservative/anarchist/Republican (like me!) knows, the reason the CEO skipped his second shot is that he knows the second shot would have him dead within 3 years.

I'm getting worried about you, jalanlong, I really am.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kbg » Fri Aug 06, 2021 10:06 pm

Xan,

Would you please retitle this thread to: Reasons why this thread proves Zombies are real

I’m thinking a change of the other one to: Coronavirus Extended Discussion would be good as well. I really like “extended” but I’d be good with eternal or never ending.

Tks kbg
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by KayFaybe » Fri Aug 06, 2021 10:19 pm

KayFaybe wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 12:15 pm
FWIW, if I lower the "knows" number from 290 to 100 (it seems possible that someone might have 100 close friends or family members), the math still works out to saying there is a 0.165 chance that a person knows someone who died from COVID. It is still in the same ballpark as the survey number. And, again, this is CLEARLY wrong. The math MUST give an answer of 0.000. Or at least give an answer of 0.000 for Trump voters. Full stop.

I must admit that I am disappointed and somewhat suspicious that you failed to address the woke math issue.
SomeDude wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:26 pm
It would only be 16% if none of those people knew more than one person right?
Well, that's not what my math did. I calculated the probability that all 100 people that person X knows would still be alive (0.9982^100)=0.835, and then took 1 minus that number, getting 0.165. So it is simply the probability that at person X knows at least 1 person who died.

But again, maybe that is the woke part, where I was taught something that was obviously false. Was it wrong to calculate the probability of of 100 people not dying from COVID is 0.9985^100?
And again this assumes 600k is real (laughable)
Well, duh! As a long-time conservative/Republican/anarchist, the correct answer is 0.000. I know that. But the math didn't work out that way. Again, I looking for someone so de-woke my math.

Now, I took jalanlong's number (600k deaths, 328 million population) as true. I didn't atop to think he/she would be lying.

Back to my request for an exposition of why my math is woke (because I really really want someone to show me the error of my ways)...
My back of the napkin guess is less than 1% of the US has a close friend or relative they know that has actually died "from covid".
I'm needing to read between the lines here, but... you seem to be saying the woke part was where I went through all the details of the math. I should really just pick a number that I know is right, and go with that. Of course!

That said, I'm troubled by your answer of 1%. Clearly the right answer is 0%. Why would you say 1% when the right answer is 0%? Don't make me start worrying about you now!

I did just think of another reason... as any good conservative/Republican/anarchist knows, I should have realized that women are just not as good at math as men!

(What puzzles me is why no one put forth this explanation.)
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Maddy » Sat Aug 07, 2021 7:01 am

The people I "know," when it comes to relationships that actually have any meaning to me, number less than 100.

The people I "know," when it comes to a death, or to a tragic event, or to anything warranting of publicity, easily exceeds $100,000.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Sat Aug 07, 2021 8:57 am

Maddy wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 7:01 am
The people I "know," when it comes to relationships that actually have any meaning to me, number less than 100.

The people I "know," when it comes to a death, or to a tragic event, or to anything warranting of publicity, easily exceeds $100,000.
Its very telling that you used a dollar sign Maddy. Tomfoolery please correct me if I'm wrong, but don't drumpf supporters always reduce humans down to their dollar value?

Seriously, the math is getting so woke here, "29% knowing a family member or close friend" is now "16.5% knowing someone".

If i get time today I'll take a look at what this would mean in the town of Wokeville, population 10,000. It has the same demos as the USA and the same official government and media certified covid stats. We'll start with the 29% close friend or family claim to see if it's plausible.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by murphy_p_t » Sat Aug 07, 2021 11:15 am

I've lost track of the examples of reasons I won't be getting injected. Here's the latest.

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2021/08/blog-post.html

Apparently, the third dose was effective. He is in zero danger of contracting covid-19 in the wild.

I have seen enough reported "coincidental" deaths to conclude it's no longer an experiment.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Xan » Sat Aug 07, 2021 3:33 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 11:15 am
I've lost track of the examples of reasons I won't be getting injected. Here's the latest.

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2021/08/blog-post.html

Apparently, the third dose was effective. He is in zero danger of contracting covid-19 in the wild.

I have seen enough reported "coincidental" deaths to conclude it's no longer an experiment.
Is your expectation that a Covid vaccine should somehow prevent death from all causes?
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by pp4me » Sat Aug 07, 2021 5:05 pm

Americans need to get vaccinated and coerced into doing it if they don't comply. Legal foreign visitors must show proof of vaccination.

Cross the border illegally and no vaccination is required plus you can be transported for free to the city of your choice.

Is that fake news from FoxNews or is it really happening? I'm waiting for someone in the Biden administration to say it's not true but I haven't seen it yet.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by murphy_p_t » Sat Aug 07, 2021 5:22 pm

Xan wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 3:33 pm
murphy_p_t wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 11:15 am
I've lost track of the examples of reasons I won't be getting injected. Here's the latest.

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2021/08/blog-post.html

Apparently, the third dose was effective. He is in zero danger of contracting covid-19 in the wild.

I have seen enough reported "coincidental" deaths to conclude it's no longer an experiment.
Is your expectation that a Covid vaccine should somehow prevent death from all causes?
No.

However, I do have the expectation that the medico-pharma industry abide by the dictum "first, do no harm."

And yes, anticipating your next question, until proven otherwise, I will view these injections as the proximate cause of death.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by KayFaybe » Sun Aug 08, 2021 8:19 pm

SomeDude wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 8:57 am
Seriously, the math is getting so woke here, "29% knowing a family member or close friend" is now "16.5% knowing someone".
But this isn't explaining anything. This is just declaring. I thought someone like you *surely* would be able to tell me why the calculations I did were woke. But you've offered nothing. This is pretty frustrating for me. I would think that at least one poster on the self-described "best forum on the internet" could tell me where I went wrong.

Maybe my guess in the other message was correct?
KayFaybe wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 10:19 pm
Back to my request for an exposition of why my math is woke (because I really really want someone to show me the error of my ways)...
SomeDude wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:26 pm
My back of the napkin guess is less than 1% of the US has a close friend or relative they know that has actually died "from covid".
I'm needing to read between the lines here, but... you seem to be saying the woke part was where I went through all the details of the math. I should really just pick a number that I know is right, and go with that. Of course!
... again, I'm looking for confirmation that I guessed correctly.
SomeDude wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 8:57 am
If i get time today I'll take a look at what this would mean in the town of Wokeville, population 10,000. It has the same demos as the USA and the same official government and media certified covid stats. We'll start with the 29% close friend or family claim to see if it's plausible.
What you do with your own time is up to you of course, but I can't think of a more worthless endeavor.

OTOH, making it clear to me why my math was woke is definitely worth your time -- it will be a great service to the masses.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by KayFaybe » Sun Aug 08, 2021 8:37 pm

ta wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 11:59 pm
I'm not
...
nor do I know
This was enough for me. You are now on ignore (as if your icon wasn't enough).
Last edited by KayFaybe on Sun Aug 08, 2021 9:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kbg » Sun Aug 08, 2021 8:43 pm

KayFaybe,

You poor, poor newbie. Expecting a fact based rebuttal, how quaint. How dare you bring mathematics to this thread? The insouciance!

As a more experienced board veteran I need to correct one error. This is not the best forum on the internet. It is the best forum on the internet filled with "independent thinkers."

One more mistake like that could lead to your permanent banishment from the board.

Moving on...What do you find interesting about the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon as it relates to the topic at hand?
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Xan » Sun Aug 08, 2021 8:48 pm

Let's maybe try to cool down a little...

KayFaybe, your math is solid. There isn't a "Bayesian" or "Monte Carlo" improvement to be made. I would say it's likely to be the upper bound of the actual number, because Covid deaths aren't distributed evenly through the population, which is an underlying assumption of your analysis.

I don't think the others are (for the most part) challenging the math so much as other things about the number. jalanlong is saying that the question itself was designed to come up with a high number, just to generate a high number and cause fear. That may be so. The definition of "family or close friend" is definitely hard to pin down; the number only appears to be reasonable if just about EVERYBODY that a person knows is counted as family or close friend.

So what's going on, then? Is everyone, including a large proportion of Trump voters, inflating their "know people who died of Covid" status, and if so, why?

As this discussion proceeds, if we could avoid calling people ugly names it would be really nice.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Xan » Sun Aug 08, 2021 8:49 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 8:36 pm
KayFaybe wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 8:19 pm

I would think that at least one poster on the self-described "best forum on the internet" could tell me where I went wrong.

Gyroscopic Investing isn't necessarily going to outperform other forums on any given year, or over short periods of time, but our forum has less volatility over the long run while achieving similar returns to more volatile forums.
I think this is in the running for post of the year. Hilarious!
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