Hello old friends

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Smith1776
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Apr 03, 2021 1:14 am

Hi Desert. You and I never really interacted, as it seems I joined the forum around the time your activity was winding down.

Nonetheless, your Desert Portfolio idea is still very influential and practical.

Welcome back!
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:18 am

Whatup broski. I agree, investing is pretty chill.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by Mountaineer » Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:55 am

Desert wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:43 pm
Sorry to start a new thread, but I didn't want to pollute a decent existing thread.

Just wanted to say hello to all the old (in seniority terms, not age) friends and new folks on the forum. I semi-retired a few years back, and decided to depart from most all my online forum activities. It's been a good opportunity to decompress, get some fresh air, and examine many of my belief systems. Not surprisingly, I spent very little time thinking about investment philosophies. If anything, I've come out of this period in life more convinced than ever that investing is one of the simplest things we humans need to tackle.

Anyway, I hope you all are doing well. The world has seemingly changed much since I was last on this forum, and yet so much has not changed. I realize that "returning" after multiple years away is not deserving of a prodigal son's welcome. But I hope to be a more calm version of my previous poster-self. Hugs to all, and I look forward to hanging out with y'all a bit.
.

Welcome back, Kotter. ;)

Re. your points:

Agree strongly on the "very little time spent thinking about investmenrt philosophies". A portfolio on mostly "automatic" is a wonderful thing that reduces stress, frees up time for other more rewarding and enjoyable activities, and in general promotes well-being - my opinions of course.

Remember, the prodigal son was welcomed back with wide open arms and a feast. I've always thought the son who remained, the grumpy jealous self-righteous one, was the real prodigal. I'll bring the virtual beer, you bring the virtual BBQ. Perhaps someday we can enjoy the non-virtual version. O0

Good to have you back.

.
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by vnatale » Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:06 am

Welcome back!

A year ago I spent an incredible amount of time in the archives. During that time I read a lot of what you had written and many times wished you were still present in the forum. Now my wish has been granted!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by WiseOne » Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:22 am

Nice to see you returning to the forum Desert!

It's a different place than when you left for sure. But, still a place for thought provoking discussion, and look forward to seeing your contributions!

and btw fwiw, I've drifted into the KISS philosophy for investments. I just really don't want to spend a lot of time on it anymore - life has piled on with more important things. And, in the retrospectoscope, very little of the tinkering made any real difference - which is good news indeed!
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by GT » Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:19 pm

Desert wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:43 pm
Sorry to start a new thread, but I didn't want to pollute a decent existing thread.

Just wanted to say hello to all the old (in seniority terms, not age) friends and new folks on the forum. I semi-retired a few years back, and decided to depart from most all my online forum activities. It's been a good opportunity to decompress, get some fresh air, and examine many of my belief systems. Not surprisingly, I spent very little time thinking about investment philosophies. If anything, I've come out of this period in life more convinced than ever that investing is one of the simplest things we humans need to tackle.

Anyway, I hope you all are doing well. The world has seemingly changed much since I was last on this forum, and yet so much has not changed. I realize that "returning" after multiple years away is not deserving of a prodigal son's welcome. But I hope to be a more calm version of my previous poster-self. Hugs to all, and I look forward to hanging out with y'all a bit.
Welcome back - I enjoyed reading the Desert portfolio thread -
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by geaux saints » Sun Apr 04, 2021 10:28 am

WHO DAT
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by Don » Sun Apr 04, 2021 2:35 pm

:)
Last edited by Don on Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:24 am

Welcome back.
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by barrett » Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:36 am

Hey Desert,

Glad to hear that you are still out there and spending little time online! Before you leave again, would you mind sharing what you are doing with your large (60% IIRC) fixed income slice? Any tricks up your sleeve or have you just chosen to hold a bunch of near-zero, high-quality debt until yields rise? I do seem to recall that you would grab some bonds with longer durations, so maybe your are still holding a significant percentage of issues from 2018 or whenever it last was that investors could get a bit of yield. Thanks in advance for any input.
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by Kevin K. » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:16 am

Welcome back Desert! It's a delight to see your name pop up again. You were always one of the most thoughtful posters on these forums and I have fond memories of the way you intelligently combined insights from Larry Swedroe's "minimizing fat tails" portfolios with the PP.

I kind of had the same question as barrett in that I wondered if you'd stuck with ~60% ITT's, 30% equities divided between SCV, TSM and EM and a 10% slice of gold, which as I recall was [close to] your last portfolio iteration. I was pretty close to that myself for awhile but ended up back in Golden Butterfly land, albeit with ITT's instead of the barbell. With the 40+ year bond market tailwind apparently done blowing it's hard to know what safe harbor looks like anymore but I try to remember Harry Browne's key lessons lest I end up back in Boglehead land or screwing around with Tesla and Bitcoin.

Anyway, welcome back - and thanks again for being such an exemplary participant here for so many years. You've been missed.
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by barrett » Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:40 am

Desert wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:16 pm
Barrett, unfortunately I don't have any tricks up my sleeve for boosting yield in the bond allocation. Some investors have "reached" for more return in the form of a higher equity allocation, longer duration, more credit risk, etc. But I think it's important to try to maintain one's chosen risk profile, despite the sad, small present interest rates.

Prior to the pandemic, I had watched the Wellesley Income fund (VWIAX) for many years, as many of us have. I continue to be impressed with the track record of that fund, so I finally decided to put a portion of our investments into it, to bring a bit of an allocation to corporate bonds and large value equities. I've maintained that position now for a couple years, and plan to keep it for a long time, assuming the fund continues to stick with its investment philosophy.
Thanks for responding, Desert. I had almost forgotten about that Wellesley Income Fund, so it's good to be reminded of that option. My wife continues to only have a vague interest in how we invest and that fund could be a good option for her as a sort of one-stop shopping should my mental faculties deteriorate at some point down the line.

As I recall, you were always willing to "reach for yield" but only within what you consider reasonable. Is that a fair assessment? In other words, there's a long arc between zero-yielding T-Bills and the worst crap-level corporate junk or Venezuelan Munis.
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by Kevin K. » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:28 pm

Just wanted to make sure Desert that you saw this thread I started awhile back, with an especially brilliant contribution from Tyler:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=11196#p206084

Historically anyway, Wellesley with 20% gold ("Golden Wellesley" - the old fogy's Golden Butterfly?) has pretty much matched the GB in every metric. I got enthralled enough with it for much of last year to run it in parallel with my GB but ultimately decided it was a few too many moving parts to keep track of and that the lower quality and duration risk of W's corporate bonds and focus on dividend-paying stocks vs. owning index funds didn't appeal as much to me. Of course me having made that choice probably ensures the GW will out-perform the GB for decades to come.

I keep some of the GB cash allocation in Vanguard Treasury MM fund paying nothing but have been buying our annual iBond purchase limit every year and will probably keep doing so until they make up about half of our cash, while also buying 1-2 year CDs opportunistically. Heck our local credit union pays .35% on high-yield MM funds at this point...still much better risk:reward than LTT's let alone T-bills.
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by pp4me » Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:04 pm

Very interesting bringing Wellesley into the discussion. My first exposure to the PP was a heated debate on another forum (not Bogleheads) about the superiority of Wellesley to the PP. On the PP side were none other than Medium Tex and Craig Rowland. Both sides had good arguments but I ultimately declared MT and Craig the winner although I did hold some Wellesley for a while.
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by jalanlong » Tue Jun 29, 2021 9:44 pm

I continue to be amazed at how the basic Desert Portfolio of 60% 10 year Treasuries, 30% Stocks and 10% Gold has performed over the last 40 years both in absolute and risk adjusted terms.

Are there any headwinds anyone can see that would make this portfolio underperform a PP substantially going forward? I am drawn to the simplicity of this portfolio for sure.
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by whatchamacallit » Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:19 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Tue Jun 29, 2021 9:44 pm
I continue to be amazed at how the basic Desert Portfolio of 60% 10 year Treasuries, 30% Stocks and 10% Gold has performed over the last 40 years both in absolute and risk adjusted terms.

Are there any headwinds anyone can see that would make this portfolio underperform a PP substantially going forward? I am drawn to the simplicity of this portfolio for sure.
I will say that I hope it doesn't do well. A world where 1.5% nominal return for the next 10 years does well will be a scary world. It might not be enough gold if 1.5% is determined to be too far negative real yield.

Is there a single fund you would use like Wellesley Income to handle the stocks and bonds together?
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by Kevin K. » Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:11 am

It seems to me that Desert’s portfolio, which I understand to be a variant of the Larry Swedroe “Larry” portfolio that incorporates Desert’s deep understanding of Harry Browne’s work, ought to be compared to both the Larry and PP but also the Golden Butterfly, Wellesley, Vanguard Target Retirement Income and perhaps Vanguard LifeStrategy Conservative growth.

As for “doing well going forward,” surely it all depends on how each individual investor defines “well.” Yes the 40+ year tailwind for bonds appears to be over, but stocks (especially U.S.) are unbelievably frothy in their valuations and very possibly poised for deep and long-lasting losses. Maybe not an issue for those still in the accumulation phase or with enough assets that they could live off a 1 or 2% annual withdrawal rate but surely all of the portfolios mentioned above appeal primarily to those primarily concerned with preserving the wealth they already have and stacking the deck in favor of the highest possible safe and perpetual withdrawal rates in all market conditions.

The equities in the Desert are 10% each Total U.S.Stock Market, Small-Cap Value and Emerging Markets. Add in 10% gold for SHTF insurance and a modicum of sequence-of-returns risk protection and balance all of the above with a boatload of intermediate-term Treasuries (and in so doing avoid both the disastrous exposure to interest rate spikes of LTT’s as well as the longish duration and far lower credit quality of the bonds in Wellesley and the Vanguard funds) and you’ve got a seemingly conservative allocation that’s actually quite robust; I’d argue that it’s so much so that only the Golden Butterfly compares as a truly “all weather” choice.

I think Desert’s ideas have enduring value because, among other things, 10% in gold is probably the upper limits of what many investors would ever consider (while rightly being viewed by PP’ers as barely enough to be worth the bother), and because the data in support of Swedroe’s “minimize fat tails” approach of using comparatively small amounts of the most volatile and highest (likely) return equities offset by an ocean of “sweet spot” Treasuries is quite robust. But these are all portfolios for those who have either “won the game” or those whose assets are modest enough that they must carefully tread the knife edge between deep and shallow risk.

I’d be happy to hear of any other allocations that compete with these, or that seem likely to do so going forward in our bizarre zero-real return/high inflation/Gamestop-crazy world.
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:36 am

Maybe we’ll have a lengthy time when nothing works. I’m being serious.
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by jalanlong » Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:20 pm

Desert wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:22 pm
It's tough to be optimistic regarding future returns right now, regardless of portfolio mix. Interest rates are low, and equity valuations are super high (as we'd expect, when interest rates have been anchored low for so long). I expect gold to continue to deliver its uncorrelated and unpredictable fluctuations.

We might finally see some international outperformance, but that's not a certainty either, of course. Since everything looks pricey to me, it's pretty easy to stay the course! :)
My bank account offers me 3.5% right now. It is tough for me not to just take that and try to increase my savings rate other than to depend on market returns for the future!
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by vnatale » Wed Jun 30, 2021 4:48 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:20 pm

Desert wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:22 pm

It's tough to be optimistic regarding future returns right now, regardless of portfolio mix. Interest rates are low, and equity valuations are super high (as we'd expect, when interest rates have been anchored low for so long). I expect gold to continue to deliver its uncorrelated and unpredictable fluctuations.

We might finally see some international outperformance, but that's not a certainty either, of course. Since everything looks pricey to me, it's pretty easy to stay the course! :)


My bank account offers me 3.5% right now. It is tough for me not to just take that and try to increase my savings rate other than to depend on market returns for the future!


With what kind of conditions does your bank offer that? On unlimited amounts? Also, shouldn't your bank's offer be available to all of the rest of us?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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jalanlong
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by jalanlong » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:39 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 4:48 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:20 pm
Desert wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:22 pm
It's tough to be optimistic regarding future returns right now, regardless of portfolio mix. Interest rates are low, and equity valuations are super high (as we'd expect, when interest rates have been anchored low for so long). I expect gold to continue to deliver its uncorrelated and unpredictable fluctuations.

We might finally see some international outperformance, but that's not a certainty either, of course. Since everything looks pricey to me, it's pretty easy to stay the course! :)
My bank account offers me 3.5% right now. It is tough for me not to just take that and try to increase my savings rate other than to depend on market returns for the future!
With what kind of conditions does your bank offer that? On unlimited amounts? Also, shouldn't your bank's offer be available to all of the rest of us?
https://www.hmbradley.com/

Conditions aren’t that hard to meet.
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vnatale
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by vnatale » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:54 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:39 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 4:48 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:20 pm

Desert wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:22 pm

It's tough to be optimistic regarding future returns right now, regardless of portfolio mix. Interest rates are low, and equity valuations are super high (as we'd expect, when interest rates have been anchored low for so long). I expect gold to continue to deliver its uncorrelated and unpredictable fluctuations.

We might finally see some international outperformance, but that's not a certainty either, of course. Since everything looks pricey to me, it's pretty easy to stay the course! :)


My bank account offers me 3.5% right now. It is tough for me not to just take that and try to increase my savings rate other than to depend on market returns for the future!


With what kind of conditions does your bank offer that? On unlimited amounts? Also, shouldn't your bank's offer be available to all of the rest of us?


https://www.hmbradley.com/

Conditions aren’t that hard to meet.


Thanks

Is there a way of doing a "direct deposit" without being employed, having it done by your employer?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by D1984 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:35 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:54 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:39 pm
vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 4:48 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:20 pm
Desert wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:22 pm
It's tough to be optimistic regarding future returns right now, regardless of portfolio mix. Interest rates are low, and equity valuations are super high (as we'd expect, when interest rates have been anchored low for so long). I expect gold to continue to deliver its uncorrelated and unpredictable fluctuations.

We might finally see some international outperformance, but that's not a certainty either, of course. Since everything looks pricey to me, it's pretty easy to stay the course! :)
My bank account offers me 3.5% right now. It is tough for me not to just take that and try to increase my savings rate other than to depend on market returns for the future!
With what kind of conditions does your bank offer that? On unlimited amounts? Also, shouldn't your bank's offer be available to all of the rest of us?
https://www.hmbradley.com/

Conditions aren’t that hard to meet.
Thanks

Is there a way of doing a "direct deposit" without being employed, having it done by your employer?
Depends on which bank and what size "direct deposit" they require. While nowadays pretty much no bank will actually count a simple ACH inbound transfer as a direct deposit (I remember the good old days when they pretty much all did count those as direct deposits) From my experience I'd say that 95% of banks will count those free "trial deposits" that banks send (to test an ACH account you've linked) as actual direct deposits even if they are only a few cents each.

The next option up would be an actual "payroll service"; IIRC Patriot Payroll is (or at least was) the cheapest at $10 per month plus a few bucks for each "employee" (which in this case would just be you) enrolled in direct deposit. I believe you also need a business checking account to use a payroll service like this but last time I checked Suntrust/Truist offered one of these free as long as the account has less than 100 transactions per month, didn't write paper checks, used your debit card at least five times per month (after the first 12 months....before that no debit card usage is required to keep the account free), and had less than $2K a month in total paper cash deposits or withdrawals (they don't care if you deposit even billions of dollars via ACH....they just don't want to have a bunch of physical cash deposits/withdrawals to have to deal with).

Payroll4Free is free to use but they charge a $15 flat monthly fee for the use of direct deposit for anything from 1-25 employees.

Don't bother with big outfits like ADP or Paychex because they are too $$$$ and they don't really want businesses with less than 99 or 100 employees anyway for the most part (and you wouldn't be a actual business anyhow....you'd just be masquerading as a sole proprietorship in order to create direct deposits for your one "employee" i.e. yourself).

Actually, these payroll type services come in kinda handy too when you need to qualify for those bank account opening bonuses that require $4K, $5K, $10K, $15K or more in direct deposits per month or in 60 days or less.......
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by vnatale » Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:53 pm

D1984 wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:35 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:54 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:39 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 4:48 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:20 pm

Desert wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:22 pm

It's tough to be optimistic regarding future returns right now, regardless of portfolio mix. Interest rates are low, and equity valuations are super high (as we'd expect, when interest rates have been anchored low for so long). I expect gold to continue to deliver its uncorrelated and unpredictable fluctuations.

We might finally see some international outperformance, but that's not a certainty either, of course. Since everything looks pricey to me, it's pretty easy to stay the course! :)


My bank account offers me 3.5% right now. It is tough for me not to just take that and try to increase my savings rate other than to depend on market returns for the future!


With what kind of conditions does your bank offer that? On unlimited amounts? Also, shouldn't your bank's offer be available to all of the rest of us?


https://www.hmbradley.com/

Conditions aren’t that hard to meet.


Thanks

Is there a way of doing a "direct deposit" without being employed, having it done by your employer?


Depends on which bank and what size "direct deposit" they require. While nowadays pretty much no bank will actually count a simple ACH inbound transfer as a direct deposit (I remember the good old days when they pretty much all did count those as direct deposits) From my experience I'd say that 95% of banks will count those free "trial deposits" that banks send (to test an ACH account you've linked) as actual direct deposits even if they are only a few cents each.

The next option up would be an actual "payroll service"; IIRC Patriot Payroll is (or at least was) the cheapest at $10 per month plus a few bucks for each "employee" (which in this case would just be you) enrolled in direct deposit. I believe you also need a business checking account to use a payroll service like this but last time I checked Suntrust/Truist offered one of these free as long as the account has less than 100 transactions per month, didn't write paper checks, used your debit card at least five times per month (after the first 12 months....before that no debit card usage is required to keep the account free), and had less than $2K a month in total paper cash deposits or withdrawals (they don't care if you deposit even billions of dollars via ACH....they just don't want to have a bunch of physical cash deposits/withdrawals to have to deal with).

Payroll4Free is free to use but they charge a $15 flat monthly fee for the use of direct deposit for anything from 1-25 employees.

Don't bother with big outfits like ADP or Paychex because they are too $$$$ and they don't really want businesses with less than 99 or 100 employees anyway for the most part (and you wouldn't be a actual business anyhow....you'd just be masquerading as a sole proprietorship in order to create direct deposits for your one "employee" i.e. yourself).

Actually, these payroll type services come in kinda handy too when you need to qualify for those bank account opening bonuses that require $4K, $5K, $10K, $15K or more in direct deposits per month or in 60 days or less.......


Until just recently I was the finance director for a non-profit. I did the payroll using QuickBooks and because we were a non-profit one of our banks allowed us to do unlimited ACHs with no charges.

So I'm highly familiar with that way of doing it. Had no conception of how I could originate one on my own unless transferring funds from my Vanguard account to a checking account would be considered a direct deposit.

You do mention something else that is also oftentimes a requirement. Using a debit card. I've never once used a debit card in my life as I generally dislike dealing with cash since it can be lost. Looking at my records...it seems that due to the virus last year and not having the usual places where I could only use cash...I set my all-time record by not spending any cash for six+ months. I also see that I've had only four cash transactions in total in the last 12 months.

It looks like Payroll4Free would be my best option...though it would cost $180 a year which I'd have to make sure I was earning at least that amount to break even before some offer made me money.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Hello old friends

Post by jalanlong » Wed Jun 30, 2021 8:20 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:54 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:39 pm
vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 4:48 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:20 pm
Desert wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:22 pm
It's tough to be optimistic regarding future returns right now, regardless of portfolio mix. Interest rates are low, and equity valuations are super high (as we'd expect, when interest rates have been anchored low for so long). I expect gold to continue to deliver its uncorrelated and unpredictable fluctuations.

We might finally see some international outperformance, but that's not a certainty either, of course. Since everything looks pricey to me, it's pretty easy to stay the course! :)
My bank account offers me 3.5% right now. It is tough for me not to just take that and try to increase my savings rate other than to depend on market returns for the future!
With what kind of conditions does your bank offer that? On unlimited amounts? Also, shouldn't your bank's offer be available to all of the rest of us?
https://www.hmbradley.com/

Conditions aren’t that hard to meet.
Thanks

Is there a way of doing a "direct deposit" without being employed, having it done by your employer?
My understanding is that they need a direct deposit from either an employer, pension or government retirement of some sort. I am not sure if their system is sophisticated enough to know certain workarounds like Treasury Direct aren’t government retirement checks.
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