Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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mathjak107
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

Post by mathjak107 »

Pointedstick wrote:
mathjak107 wrote: insane or not that is what the tristate area is . nyc has lower property taxes then outside the  city but we have a nyc income tax  instead.
And the tristate area is not everywhere--an oversight frequently made by New Yorkers. :) You said, "we were just talking last night about the fact that many times having a paid off mortgage adds little value to the retirement picture." That might be accurate if you replaced "many times" with "for people who live in heavily urbanized parts of the tri-state area"


sorry , the words are not to your liking .
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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Libertarian666 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2013 3:27 pm My plan is to save 33 times my yearly expenses that aren't covered by Social Security, and assume a 0% real return.
Six and one-half years later how did that plan turn out?

Vinny
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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Pointedstick wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2013 2:59 pm This is going to be pretty heavily in the "devil's advocacy" department, and somewhat stream-of-consciousness, so take it with a grain of salt.

I've been wondering lately if the entire field of retail investing by small net worth individuals working hard at their jobs and saving in their 401(k)s and Roth IRAs is just a big scam.

Let's look at the common case of retirement. You need 25x your annual expenses for a 4% withdrawal rate, or 33x for 3% and so on. If you need $40k/yr to live, at 4% SWR, you need $1m in a portfolio that reliably produces at least 4% after inflation with as little yearly volatility as possible, for example...
But getting back to Pointedstick's original question, I tend to agree with him. I think people earning the average American salary $50k-ish per year and hoping for 10% per annum in their portfolios but in reality much less than that are hosed. That is why retirement failure is so common.

I've done well with as a salaried retail investor, but I've had high salaries, low cost of living location, thrifty, good investing habits, compounded in the 1980s 1990s... not everyone's experience for sure.
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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ochotona wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:38 am
Pointedstick wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2013 2:59 pm This is going to be pretty heavily in the "devil's advocacy" department, and somewhat stream-of-consciousness, so take it with a grain of salt.

I've been wondering lately if the entire field of retail investing by small net worth individuals working hard at their jobs and saving in their 401(k)s and Roth IRAs is just a big scam.

Let's look at the common case of retirement. You need 25x your annual expenses for a 4% withdrawal rate, or 33x for 3% and so on. If you need $40k/yr to live, at 4% SWR, you need $1m in a portfolio that reliably produces at least 4% after inflation with as little yearly volatility as possible, for example...
But getting back to Pointedstick's original question, I tend to agree with him. I think people earning the average American salary $50k-ish per year and hoping for 10% per annum in their portfolios but in reality much less than that are hosed. That is why retirement failure is so common.

I've done well with as a salaried retail investor, but I've had high salaries, low cost of living location, thrifty, good investing habits, compounded in the 1980s 1990s... not everyone's experience for sure.
I have not yet finished reading through all the posts in this Topic. But in the first two pages that I did, I did not see anyone reference the income to be received from Social Security. That Social Security represents a lifetime annuity with cost of living increases makes it equivalent to a fairly large portfolio. This is strictly in the sense of providing income while you are alive as I acknowledge that unlike a portfolio there iares no possibilities of leaving any form of inheritance. But leaving an inheritance does not seem to be the concern in this topic.

Vinny
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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Tyler wrote: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:47 pm Alright.  Now this is getting interesting.  I managed to automate the PP rebalancing in Excel, which allowed me to start doing some more significant number crunching. 

Since retirement portfolio success is highly dependent on the year you retire (if the market crashes 50% in year 1, your WR just doubled), I wanted to determine the maximum withdrawal rate that the Permanent Portfolio can support in retirement regardless of what year you retire.  My definition of success is different than retirement calculators like Firecalc -- I want the value of the portfolio not simply to remain positive, but to also remain constant in inflation-adjusted dollars to your initial investment.  I also used the actual PP rebalancing methodology, with 15/35 bands and taking expenses every year out of the cash component.  Finally, the withdrawal rates shown are adjusted to the CPI every year so your spending power is constant. 

To find the optimal WR, I ran theoretical 10-year retirement scenarios in every rolling decade from 1972-2012 using Craig's data pulled from WiseOne's spreadsheet.  I used 10-year intervals rather than typical 30-year retirement intervals not only to get more data points, but also because my goal was to preserve my initial investment.  I figured that if I could identify the max WR that could survive the worst decade 100% intact, it would most likely last forever.

I assumed in year zero for each scenario the PP was perfectly balanced at 25%ea.  Rebalancing events were calculated automatically, and I then adjusted the initial withdrawal rate until the final PP value after ten years (including drawdowns for expenses) matched the inflation adjusted value of the initial portfolio.  The results are as follows:

Image

The average "Tyler" SWR for the PP historically is a pretty amazing 5.3%.  The best year to retire was 1978, where one could have supported a ridiculous 7.7%WR for ten years without depleting capital at all.  The worst year to retire was 1987 where the max WR was still a healthy 3.8%.  I haven't run a full analysis of a 50/50 BH portfolio yet, but I can tell you that using the same methodology the max SWR is -2.5% if you retired in 1972.  That's not a typo -- if you didn't add at least 2.5% to your portfolio every year, you would have lost value ten years later.  That's why long-term SWR discussions for stock/bond mixes usually center around very conservative numbers.

Frankly (assuming I haven't screwed up somewhere, of course) I find this astonishing and very reassuring.  Basically, from what I can tell the conservative SWR for the Permanent Portfolio to last indefinitely is right around 4%.  And an older retiree with less worry about maintaining principal could easily push to 5% without much argument from me.  Compare this to most SWR calculations for "traditional" portfolios (where 4% may only sustain you for 30 years before you're broke), and the PP is one great retirement portfolio.
Tyler,

Has all the above been superseded and updated on your web site?

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

Post by vnatale »

WiseOne wrote: Sun Jan 12, 2014 8:00 am I re-read this thread with great enjoyment, and suggest others do the same.  It will help a lot of us deal with the angst of a losing year for the PP compared to traditional stock/bond portfolios.

The data and conclusions really need to be written up into an article and posted somewhere.  Perhaps on Craig's blog, or melvyr's?  It's an extremely important but rarely seen message for investors following any strategy that doesn't involve gambling.  If it's ok with all of you I don't at all mind coming up with a first draft (much easier to edit than write in my experience...)
Finally finished reading all the posts in this Topic.

Was the article WiseOne proposed ever written by anyone?

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

Post by Libertarian666 »

vnatale wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:23 am
Libertarian666 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2013 3:27 pm My plan is to save 33 times my yearly expenses that aren't covered by Social Security, and assume a 0% real return.
Six and one-half years later how did that plan turn out?

Vinny
Looks good so far. Going back to July 2015 (4.5 years ago :D), my assets are higher than they were then despite having not had any significant wage income. Of course gold is up $400/oz., which is pretty important given my portfolio.
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

Post by vnatale »

Libertarian666 wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:06 pm
vnatale wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:23 am
Libertarian666 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2013 3:27 pm My plan is to save 33 times my yearly expenses that aren't covered by Social Security, and assume a 0% real return.
Six and one-half years later how did that plan turn out?

Vinny
Looks good so far. Going back to July 2015 (4.5 years ago :D), my assets are higher than they were then despite having not had any significant wage income. Of course gold is up $400/oz., which is pretty important given my portfolio.
I had not realized you had have not yet retired. When is the time frame for that? And, will it be a completely retirement or one with some wage income (although you state above your wage income has not been significant for a fair amount of time).
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

Post by Libertarian666 »

vnatale wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:35 pm
Libertarian666 wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:06 pm
vnatale wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:23 am
Libertarian666 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2013 3:27 pm My plan is to save 33 times my yearly expenses that aren't covered by Social Security, and assume a 0% real return.
Six and one-half years later how did that plan turn out?

Vinny
Looks good so far. Going back to July 2015 (4.5 years ago :D), my assets are higher than they were then despite having not had any significant wage income. Of course gold is up $400/oz., which is pretty important given my portfolio.
I had not realized you had have not yet retired. When is the time frame for that? And, will it be a completely retirement or one with some wage income (although you state above your wage income has not been significant for a fair amount of time).
I have indeed retired, for the most part. My last "real job" was in 2014, although I've had about a year of contract work since then.

I may still get more work, especially if my current project bears fruit. I'll know more next week when I attend a conference relevant to my project.
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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vnatale wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:03 pm Tyler,

Has all the above been superseded and updated on your web site?

Vinny
Yep. That initial research eventually evolved into a tool that can calculate the safe and perpetual withdrawal rates for any portfolio: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/withdrawal-rates/

Here's the page for the Permanent Portfolio. Just scroll down for the WR data.
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

Post by vnatale »

Tyler wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:32 pm
vnatale wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:03 pm Tyler,

Has all the above been superseded and updated on your web site?

Vinny
Yep. That initial research eventually evolved into a tool that can calculate the safe and perpetual withdrawal rates for any portfolio: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/withdrawal-rates/

Here's the page for the Permanent Portfolio. Just scroll down for the WR data.
Thanks. By now I should have expected no less and been shocked if you had NOT responded as you have.

Vinny
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

Post by WiseOne »

Vinny, thanks for resurrecting this thread. It's one of my favorites.

Tyler, I'm curious...didn't you invent your pink/blue checkerboard presentations and launch portfoliocharts.com after this discussion? The charts and info on that are still a priceless resource. Hope you keep it up.
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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Agreed, good find Vinny.

Going back to what ocho said, I guess I'd agree with him, the way he phrased it. But If those same people saved a bigger percentage of their incomes, they would have a much better success rate with their retirements.

It's a good feeling knowing you don't have to do anything you don't want to do, because you have your spending and desires under control. And you can choose to do work without really considering how much it pays. Or just not do anything and read books and workout a lot. It's all good. Personally, I've come around to the philosophy MediumTex was talking about. I think PointedStick said the same thing more recently. Sometimes having a job to work at is more enjoyable than unlimited free time.

Jacob (ERE) mentioned that some jobs are worth sacrificing your freedom for because they let you do things that aren't really possible outside of them. For him, it was quant trading, but the same idea can be applied broadly.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

Post by Tyler »

WiseOne wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:42 pm Tyler, I'm curious...didn't you invent your pink/blue checkerboard presentations and launch portfoliocharts.com after this discussion? The charts and info on that are still a priceless resource. Hope you keep it up.
From this thread about withdrawal rates to other discussions about how to replicate interesting stock/bond charts for the PP, I would say this forum as a whole was a big inspiration. I have no plans to slow down any time soon. :)
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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Kriegsspiel wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:04 pm It's a good feeling knowing you don't have to do anything you don't want to do, because you have your spending and desires under control. And you can choose to do work without really considering how much it pays. Or just not do anything and read books and workout a lot. It's all good. Personally, I've come around to the philosophy MediumTex was talking about. I think PointedStick said the same thing more recently. Sometimes having a job to work at is more enjoyable than unlimited free time.

Jacob (ERE) mentioned that some jobs are worth sacrificing your freedom for because they let you do things that aren't really possible outside of them. For him, it was quant trading, but the same idea can be applied broadly.
Bingo.

I was just looking up my institution's policy on sabbatical leave after hearing that someone in our dept was permitted to take one (I didn't think that would be the case). Turns out I can take a full year at about 1/3 my current pay. Because I'm within a year or two of being FI and don't live extravagantly, this is very doable financially. It sure wouldn't be if I lived like most people, paycheck to paycheck with walls of credit card debt.
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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WiseOne wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:30 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:04 pm It's a good feeling knowing you don't have to do anything you don't want to do, because you have your spending and desires under control. And you can choose to do work without really considering how much it pays. Or just not do anything and read books and workout a lot. It's all good. Personally, I've come around to the philosophy MediumTex was talking about. I think PointedStick said the same thing more recently. Sometimes having a job to work at is more enjoyable than unlimited free time.

Jacob (ERE) mentioned that some jobs are worth sacrificing your freedom for because they let you do things that aren't really possible outside of them. For him, it was quant trading, but the same idea can be applied broadly.
Bingo.

I was just looking up my institution's policy on sabbatical leave after hearing that someone in our dept was permitted to take one (I didn't think that would be the case). Turns out I can take a full year at about 1/3 my current pay. Because I'm within a year or two of being FI and don't live extravagantly, this is very doable financially. It sure wouldn't be if I lived like most people, paycheck to paycheck with walls of credit card debt.
The only drawback to doing that might be that you wouldn't want to go back to work afterwards. ;)
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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Kriegsspiel wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:04 pm Agreed, good find Vinny.

Going back to what ocho said, I guess I'd agree with him, the way he phrased it. But If those same people saved a bigger percentage of their incomes, they would have a much better success rate with their retirements.

It's a good feeling knowing you don't have to do anything you don't want to do, because you have your spending and desires under control. And you can choose to do work without really considering how much it pays. Or just not do anything and read books and workout a lot. It's all good. Personally, I've come around to the philosophy MediumTex was talking about. I think PointedStick said the same thing more recently. Sometimes having a job to work at is more enjoyable than unlimited free time.

Jacob (ERE) mentioned that some jobs are worth sacrificing your freedom for because they let you do things that aren't really possible outside of them. For him, it was quant trading, but the same idea can be applied broadly.
Love ERE stuff. I think everyone should dive into Jacob's philosophy, even if they leave out some of the more "extreme" elements. The "financial independence" math around lowering costs (and therefore simultaneously increasing savings rate AND requiring less in assets to be FI) is too strong to ignore. I've also found that taxes come in to play "bigly" when you have to fund a higher lifestyle expense. If you can keep your lifestyle expenses below the 22% federal bracket, only a small fraction of your post-FI income needs will go to taxes. To the degree your lifestyle creeps above that threshold, you might as well factor in about $1 of taxes for every $2 of lifestyle expenses.

And while currently not "FI" yet, the ability to "work a job from a position of strength" is far-more satisfying than feeling like you're on the edge of a financial cliff. I'm amazed that so much of the language & thought process around being "financially successful" has to do with a high-paying job, sprawling business, and/or "nice stuff," while people can barely grasp the concept of being financially independent at a young-ish age with a low cost lifestyle.
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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moda0306 wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:56 am Love ERE stuff. I think everyone should dive into Jacob's philosophy, even if they leave out some of the more "extreme" elements.
I believe you are referring to Mustachianism :D But I am with you, almost everyone would find something useful if they read a bit of the blogs in question. Another one that I re-read often is Lacking Ambition, although he hasn't updated it in years. It went down briefly and I was very sad, so once he got it back up and running I scraped the posts and made myself a little pdf.
The "financial independence" math around lowering costs (and therefore simultaneously increasing savings rate AND requiring less in assets to be FI) is too strong to ignore. I've also found that taxes come in to play "bigly" when you have to fund a higher lifestyle expense. If you can keep your lifestyle expenses below the 22% federal bracket, only a small fraction of your post-FI income needs will go to taxes. To the degree your lifestyle creeps above that threshold, you might as well factor in about $1 of taxes for every $2 of lifestyle expenses.
In addition, it lines up well with what legal tax protesters are doing, if one is so inclined. The states all have their different methods of taxing so that requires individualization, but in general keeping your expenses low lets you tax-shield more of your income (or earn less, obviously). On that last point, when I was transcribing some of my notes today, I came across this bit that reminded me of this thread:
Cottage industry, after all, had great advantages for the merchant-manufacturer, in particular, low cost of entry and low overhead. In this mode, it was the worker who supplied plant and equipment, and if business slowed, the putter-out could simply turn off the orders. Large shops or plants, on the other hand, called for a substantial capital investment: land and buildings to start with, plus machines.
Putting out, moreover, was popular with everybody. The workers liked the freedom from discipline, the privilege of stopping and going as they pleased. Work rhythms reflected this independence. Weavers typically rested and played long, well into the week, then worked hard toward the end in order to make delivery and collect pay on Saturday. On Fridays they might work through the night. Saturday night was for drinking, and Sunday brought more beer and ale. Monday (Saint Monday) was typically holy, and Tuesday was needed to recover from so much holiness.
. . .
... the dispersion of activity across hill and dale was driving up costs of distribution and collection. Meanwhile, trying to meet demand, employers raised wages, that is, they increased the price they paid for finished work. To their dismay, however, the higher income simply permitted workers more time for leisure, and the supply of work actually diminished. Merchant-manufacturers found themselves on a treadmill. In defiance of all their natural instincts, they came to wish for higher food prices. Perhaps a rise in the cost of living would compel spinners and weavers to their task.
And while currently not "FI" yet, the ability to "work a job from a position of strength" is far-more satisfying than feeling like you're on the edge of a financial cliff. I'm amazed that so much of the language & thought process around being "financially successful" has to do with a high-paying job, sprawling business, and/or "nice stuff," while people can barely grasp the concept of being financially independent at a young-ish age with a low cost lifestyle.
100%, and again, even a cursory exposure to ERE/MMM would be eye-opening for tons of people. I know it was for me... I'm sure I mentioned it before, but I had zero knowledge interest/stocks/bonds were, how taxes worked, savings accounts like Roths, IRA, 401k, TSP. None of that even entered my mind until years after I got out of college. I thought you just worked at jobs until you were 65, and thus "allowed" to retire ;D
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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moda0306 wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:56 am I've also found that taxes come in to play "bigly" when you have to fund a higher lifestyle expense. If you can keep your lifestyle expenses below the 22% federal bracket, only a small fraction of your post-FI income needs will go to taxes. To the degree your lifestyle creeps above that threshold, you might as well factor in about $1 of taxes for every $2 of lifestyle expenses.
Interesting concept. In other words, the cost of lifestyle inflation isn't linear, you end up paying more money for less returns because of the added taxes.

I'm seeing more and more articles to the effect that most Americans can't afford to retire, and will have to work literally until they drop dead. Obviously this is a entirely unrealistic expectation (hello, have you ever heard of Alzheimer's?) but I'm sensing a growing drumbeat and I bet I know where this is headed. Hilarious that there's a solution readily available that these articles studiously avoid mentioning.
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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WiseOne wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:30 pm Hilarious that there's a solution readily available that these articles studiously avoid mentioning.
Why would anyone live below their own means, when not doing so means (hah!) that you can also live on someone else's!?
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Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

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Kriegsspiel wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2020 1:22 pm
The "financial independence" math around lowering costs (and therefore simultaneously increasing savings rate AND requiring less in assets to be FI) is too strong to ignore. I've also found that taxes come in to play "bigly" when you have to fund a higher lifestyle expense. If you can keep your lifestyle expenses below the 22% federal bracket, only a small fraction of your post-FI income needs will go to taxes. To the degree your lifestyle creeps above that threshold, you might as well factor in about $1 of taxes for every $2 of lifestyle expenses.
In addition, it lines up well with what legal tax protesters are doing, if one is so inclined. The states all have their different methods of taxing so that requires individualization, but in general keeping your expenses low lets you tax-shield more of your income (or earn less, obviously).
I've been in the 0% tax bracket for the last three years and expect to be there again this year if nothing significant happens with my current project.

I'm keeping entirely within the tax code, as I don't want to get into a battle with the IRS no matter how irrational or even unconstitutional the IRS code is.

I have modest tastes and we lack for nothing.
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