The political re-alignment of our time

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Pointedstick
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Pointedstick » Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:36 pm

Checking in a year later... how did I do!?

The Democratic party is definitely doubling down on cosmopolitanism. But I don't see many of the changes to the Republican party that I predicted. Trump himself has turned out to be much more incompetent and immature than I thought, and has been unable kick out the neocons and Heritage Foundation types. He's delegated his legislative agenda to establishment figure Paul Ryan and moved to a more conventional directionless Wilsonian foreign policy.

However, the very public failure to repeal Obamacare definitely reveals the new popularity of big government welfare programs on the right, though: it turned out that there were only like 30 Real Conservatives in the house and the rest of them were totally fine with Obamacare, mostly objecting to the fact that it was passed by the other party.

I think Clacy got it right: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=8232&start=36#p144169 If anything the percentage of "true conservatives" is much much smaller than he guessed.

Looking back, MG was right: I really had drunk the kool-aid. I was still a not-so-secret Trump supporter, and in a somewhat dark place. I used a lot of false equivalence: "Trump might do this bad thing, but Obama/Hillary/Bush/everyone else already does it!" There's an element of truth to that, but trends can worsen, and they have.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Maddy » Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:43 pm

And now. . . [drumroll]. . . Bailouts!
https://www.thenewamerican.com/world-ne ... ek-bailout
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by tennpaga » Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:38 am

Pointedstick wrote:Checking in a year later... how did I do!?
...
I think Clacy got it right: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=8232&start=36#p144169 If anything the percentage of "true conservatives" is much much smaller than he guessed.
clacy wrote:The Republican Party is totally fracturing it appears. I think you have 3 very distinct segments that aren't always aligned on many issues:

1. Conservatives.... These folks are largely voting for Ted Cruz. The problem they find is that they are at best about 30-40% of the Republican base, and maybe 15-20% of the general population. I think it would take a truly great and articulate conservative politician win a general. Cruz has the articulate part, but for some reason he seems beyond slimy and very annoying to most. This segment compares to the Bernie Sanders/Socialist wing, IMO. They are the pure-ists that want it all, but don't have a very realistic chance of winning a general because they are too radical to the other side and middle of the road voters.

2. The Establishment wing (aka Corporatists).... This is the Wall Street Journal/K-Street/Wall Street crowd. They want to outsource ANY and ALL jobs to lower wage workers from 3rd world countries. They are quick to bomb or invade countries if their corporate sponsors want that. These folks are far closer to Hillary Clinton than they are Ted Cruz.

3. The newly emerging Trump-ites..... Hard to say if they can get enough crossover from blue collar Dems. Frankly the union workers should be flocking in droves to Trump if they are concerned with their future employment prospects.

I have no idea how this will all shakeout
Nice summary. And I agree with PS's assessment that constituency #1 was smaller than estimated.

In the end, I think Trump won the presidency due to constituency #3. However, I would also say that, not even 100 days in, he has completely sold out to #2*. Yes, I know, Trump could change course again. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see if and how he is held to account by #3 in the 2018 mid-terms.

* Unintentional grade-school humor.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:36 pm

I read a blog post today that made some sense regarding Trump's drastic change.
Namely, suggesting that "they" truly have something big on him, or have otherwise shown him what could they could make go wrong for him personally.
Of course it's just an idea, a conspiracy theory to boot, but it would explain it. I don't think any of us have ever seen a change from candidate to president to this degree. It's a matter of which wild explanation is the true one.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Desert » Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:34 pm

I Shrugged wrote:I read a blog post today that made some sense regarding Trump's drastic change.
Namely, suggesting that "they" truly have something big on him, or have otherwise shown him what could they could make go wrong for him personally.
Of course it's just an idea, a conspiracy theory to boot, but it would explain it. I don't think any of us have ever seen a change from candidate to president to this degree. It's a matter of which wild explanation is the true one.
From where I'm sitting, he hasn't changed a bit; he's exactly the same as candidate Trump. He's a far better salesman than I gave him credit for, I must admit. But he's the same unprincipled, chaotic, narcissistic, self-serving guy that some of us have observed for decades. It's mind boggling that a lot of folks couldn't see that during the campaign. This is who Donald Trump is ... and always has been.

Also, character is important, even in a politician. Good things do not flow from a rotten character, no matter what they promise. We elected him, and now we'll all pay the price together.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Jack Jones » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:22 am

Desert wrote:Also, character is important, even in a politician. Good things do not flow from a rotten character, no matter what they promise.
This is the thesis of Covey's 7 Habits book. It's an excellent book despite seeming cheesy.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by LC475 » Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:44 pm

Pointedstick wrote:Trump himself has turned out to be much more incompetent and immature than I thought, and has been unable kick out the neocons and Heritage Foundation types.
I think you are totally right (in a way), but do not know how right you are.

This is the fundamental truth at the root of things: The Congress, the President, all these people are figureheads.

Think about it.

Trump is a CEO. He knows when he's in charge. He knows when he's not. And he definitely, definitely is not. No question about that. So, what is he doing about it?

I choose to believe that he is working on gaining some actual power. He is a very smart individual, and is playing some very complicated games on many different levels. I know, I know, four-dimensional chess is a tired meme about Trump, but I think there's a lot of truth to it. He won the election. Could I have done that? No. He's really, really smart. The things he did during the election, those that I understood, were really, really smart. Hilariously smart in many cases.

A lot of what is looking like incompetence could be, well, intentional incompetence. See here, for instance: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/1588126544 ... healthcare

The Deep State runs things. They have for a long time. Who we elect has long been more or less irrelevant (and trending strongly to less and less as the decades roll on). Window dressing. Bread and circuses. The underground machine keeps on machinating, unaffected. Is Trump trying to stage a coup against the Deep State? Maybe.

I choose to believe that he is. We shall see.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Pointedstick » Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:14 pm

Trump is definitely cunning, and his intuition is incredible. These are both "shoot from the hip" type traits, and Trump is nothing if not spontaneous in taking advantage of currents and forces that are just under the surface that nobody else notices, talks about, or knows what to do with. It works because nobody else in D.C. does this, not even the people who pretend to. But it has its limits if that's the only style of gunslinging you know, and I think we're seeing them.

I don't follow the news much these days, but based on what I hear from the people who are important to me--both Trump lovers and Trump haters--I see a real lack of the kind of thoughtfulness and deliberation that come from significant intelligence. I see a guy who wants to keep on shooting from the hip when the game has changed from quick draw dueling to 1,000 yard marksmanship or a grueling 3-gun match.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by LC475 » Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:28 pm

Pointedstick wrote:Trump is definitely cunning, and his intuition is incredible. These are both "shoot from the hip" type traits, and Trump is nothing if not spontaneous in taking advantage of currents and forces that are just under the surface that nobody else notices, talks about, or knows what to do with. It works because nobody else in D.C. does this, not even the people who pretend to. But it has its limits if that's the only style of gunslinging you know, and I think we're seeing them.

I don't follow the news much these days, but based on what I hear from the people who are important to me--both Trump lovers and Trump haters--I see a real lack of the kind of thoughtfulness and deliberation that come from significant intelligence. I see a guy who wants to keep on shooting from the hip when the game has changed from quick draw dueling to 1,000 yard marksmanship or a grueling 3-gun match.
That is certainly another possible story. As I see it, we really don't know what the real story is, at least I don't, and won't until the eight years is done.

In the end all that matters is results, and on that front there has been very little so far. If at the end of eight years there's still so little -- if, say, the wall still isn't built! -- then sure, he was a failure and a flop. But if he's managed to wrest back some power for the elected officials and do some good things to bring back some sanity to a dysfunctional system, then, well, that's great!

I like Trump. I like Trump a lot. The fact that I think there is any chance whatsoever of him doing anything good is a big change from all the Presidents the whole rest of my life. I believe he really does care about America. He wants to save the country. It may be too late to save. I do not agree with all of his ideas to save it. He is not ideological, he's practical (which may be a good thing). But at least he (says that he) sees some of the same problems I do and (said that he) is going to try to solve them.

So, incompetent charlatan, or hero fighting astronomical odds? Results will in the end tell us which story was true.

I want to echo someone else in this thread too, PointedStick, in that I do love to read the workings of your mind.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by vnatale » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:07 pm

Desert wrote:
Thu Mar 03, 2016 5:48 pm
Pointedstick wrote:
Desert wrote: The thing that does bother me is that the "solution" that the angry horde has chosen will likely cause a lot of harm to this country.  It's not hard to break things, to tear things down.  Like the wise man Colin Powell said to W before he went into Iraq, "If you break it, you own it."  Unfortunately, that's not exactly true, because now W doesn't own it, the American and Iraqi people own it.  Similarly, after Trump augers in (sooner or later), it won't be him that has to foot the cost, it will be Americans, including those of us who have done our best to point out the painfully obvious problems with this candidate.
I'm curious… what specifically do you fear that Trump is going to do to harm the country? Specifics, please.
Here are a few:
1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring. 
This post by Desert contains the highest percentage (by far) of correct predictions from any of these posts I've been reading from years ago....

Vinny
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:12 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:07 pm
Desert wrote:
Thu Mar 03, 2016 5:48 pm
Pointedstick wrote:
Desert wrote: The thing that does bother me is that the "solution" that the angry horde has chosen will likely cause a lot of harm to this country.  It's not hard to break things, to tear things down.  Like the wise man Colin Powell said to W before he went into Iraq, "If you break it, you own it."  Unfortunately, that's not exactly true, because now W doesn't own it, the American and Iraqi people own it.  Similarly, after Trump augers in (sooner or later), it won't be him that has to foot the cost, it will be Americans, including those of us who have done our best to point out the painfully obvious problems with this candidate.
I'm curious… what specifically do you fear that Trump is going to do to harm the country? Specifics, please.
Here are a few:
1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring. 
This post by Desert contains the highest percentage (by far) of correct predictions from any of these posts I've been reading from years ago....

Vinny
Holy crap -- we've got an oracle in our midst! :o
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by vnatale » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:22 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:12 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:07 pm
Desert wrote:
Thu Mar 03, 2016 5:48 pm
Pointedstick wrote:
Desert wrote: The thing that does bother me is that the "solution" that the angry horde has chosen will likely cause a lot of harm to this country.  It's not hard to break things, to tear things down.  Like the wise man Colin Powell said to W before he went into Iraq, "If you break it, you own it."  Unfortunately, that's not exactly true, because now W doesn't own it, the American and Iraqi people own it.  Similarly, after Trump augers in (sooner or later), it won't be him that has to foot the cost, it will be Americans, including those of us who have done our best to point out the painfully obvious problems with this candidate.
I'm curious… what specifically do you fear that Trump is going to do to harm the country? Specifics, please.
Here are a few:
1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring. 
This post by Desert contains the highest percentage (by far) of correct predictions from any of these posts I've been reading from years ago....

Vinny
Holy crap -- we've got an oracle in our midst! :o
If you roll back to the prior page in this Topic you can read Pointedstick (who initiated this Topic) start off a post with this...

"Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post
by Pointedstick » Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:36 pm
Checking in a year later... how did I do!?

The Democratic party is definitely doubling down on cosmopolitanism. But I don't see many of the changes to the Republican party that I predicted. Trump himself has turned out to be much more incompetent and immature than I thought, and has been unable kick out the neocons and Heritage Foundation types. He's delegated his legislative agenda to establishment figure Paul Ryan and moved to a more conventional directionless Wilsonian foreign policy."

Seems like he was self-declaring himself to NOT be an oracle!

Vinny

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