Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick »

That product is a joke. The cost is (ahem) through the roof! It would barely be competitive even if they cut the per-square-foot cost in half. They have a lot of work to do if they want to sell outside of super-rich enclaves. The estimated cost for my house (without batteries) is $47,000, for example. The cost to replace the roof with nice last-forever metal panels and get a gold-standard solar array is closer to $20,000 with already-existing products.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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I could see a role for this in cooperative apartment buildings in NYC. The city code makes it nearly impossible to put solar panels on rooftops, not to mention the usual issues with 100 year old buildings. The tiles are a relatively small part of the cost of doing roof replacements, and electricity here is priced over 3x the national average.

Definitely I'll mention this at the next coop committee meeting. It's worth at least looking into.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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WiseOne wrote:I could see a role for this in cooperative apartment buildings in NYC. The city code makes it nearly impossible to put solar panels on rooftops
You should consider moving to a blue state, where they actually care about the environment and sustainability and don't try to regulate solar out of existence... oh wait >:D

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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Kriegsspiel »

I haven't looked at the cost at all. So what, when Elon says they're gonna be cheaper than a regular roof, he's really only able to say that if you use numbers from California or something?
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Pointedstick wrote:
WiseOne wrote:I could see a role for this in cooperative apartment buildings in NYC. The city code makes it nearly impossible to put solar panels on rooftops
You should consider moving to a blue state, where they actually care about the environment and sustainability and don't try to regulate solar out of existence... oh wait >:D

Dang, the Evil smiley isn't working!
I know, deliciously ironic isn't it?

These tiles are in no way cheaper than standard roofing materials. I guess the claim comes from the projected savings in electricity costs, though there are a lot of assumptions buried in there that need to be checked. Flyers for very expensive things tend to be that way :-)
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Kriegsspiel »

Kriegsspiel wrote: Fri Aug 04, 2017 1:46 pm https://www.ecowatch.com/tesla-solar-ro ... picks=true

Look at how good these look.
Pointedstick wrote: Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:01 pm That product is a joke. The cost is (ahem) through the roof! It would barely be competitive even if they cut the per-square-foot cost in half. They have a lot of work to do if they want to sell outside of super-rich enclaves. The estimated cost for my house (without batteries) is $47,000, for example. The cost to replace the roof with nice last-forever metal panels and get a gold-standard solar array is closer to $20,000 with already-existing products.
TechCrunch has a new article fanboying the Solar Roof. It looks like they've gotten the costs down only a hair from when PS looked at them years ago. I went to the Solar Roof website to get an estimate for my house, and like PS, it would be $30,000 without batteries. But unlike PS, I don't live in the sunny, hot desert. It would take about half a century before I'd break even at my current electricity usage and rates. Kind of irrelevant to my current house anyways, since I have a pretty new roof on it.

That aside, I still need to look at whether it makes sense to stick a solar panel or two on my property just to aid in summer electricity usage (air conditioning).
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Kriegsspiel wrote: Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:38 am TechCrunch has a new article fanboying the Solar Roof. It looks like they've gotten the costs down only a hair from when PS looked at them years ago. I went to the Solar Roof website to get an estimate for my house, and like PS, it would be $30,000 without batteries. But unlike PS, I don't live in the sunny, hot desert. It would take about half a century before I'd break even at my current electricity usage and rates. Kind of irrelevant to my current house anyways, since I have a pretty new roof on it.
Very interesting. For comparison, last year I had a metal roof and a 7 kW solar array installed for about $29,000 (the solar was only about $17k and the roof had to be replaced anyway). The Tesla estimator says that going with them would be about $40,000 for a 10 kW array roof. That's a lot of dough, but 10 kW is more than 7, and it's getting into the realm of reasonability. Pretty impressive.

BTW my solar panels (in conjunction with electric heat pumps and other all-electric appliances) have driven my electricity, heating, and cooling bills to zero. yes, ZERO. Well okay, I do pay $8 a month for the electricity bill's base charge. Getting rid of that would require going off-grid with batteries, which is not yet economically feasible, but probably will be in 5 or 10 years. However in the meantime I have no gas bill and expect to receive a check from the electric company for all the extra electricity I produced this year, which I could alternatively use to charge an electric car FOR FREE. That's right, once I get an electric car, it will replace my $65/mo gas bill with... nothing.

The total cost for all of this has been much, much less than the amount I would have needed to save in my investment portfolio to produce income equaling the monthly expenditures that I no longer have. And as for the extra monthly cashflow... I just put it back into savings and investments. This stuff's real, folks. It ain't just something made up by the loony muddle-brained libtards you love to hate. It's real dollars and cents here. Renewables and energy efficiency and gas-to-electric conversion and battery storage and electric cars are the future because they're simply cheaper and better.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Pointedstick wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:11 pm Very interesting. For comparison, last year I had a metal roof and a 7 kW solar array installed for about $29,000 (the solar was only about $17k and the roof had to be replaced anyway). The Tesla estimator says that going with them would be about $40,000 for a 10 kW array roof. That's a lot of dough, but 10 kW is more than 7, and it's getting into the realm of reasonability. Pretty impressive.

BTW my solar panels (in conjunction with electric heat pumps and other all-electric appliances) have driven my electricity, heating, and cooling bills to zero. yes, ZERO. Well okay, I do pay $8 a month for the electricity bill's base charge. Getting rid of that would require going off-grid with batteries, which is not yet economically feasible, but probably will be in 5 or 10 years. However in the meantime I have no gas bill and expect to receive a check from the electric company for all the extra electricity I produced this year, which I could alternatively use to charge an electric car FOR FREE. That's right, once I get an electric car, it will replace my $65/mo gas bill with... nothing.

The total cost for all of this has been much, much less than the amount I would have needed to save in my investment portfolio to produce income equaling the monthly expenditures that I no longer have. And as for the extra monthly cashflow... I just put it back into savings and investments. This stuff's real, folks. It ain't just something made up by the loony muddle-brained libtards you love to hate. It's real dollars and cents here. Renewables and energy efficiency and gas-to-electric conversion and battery storage and electric cars are the future because they're simply cheaper and better.
Good stuff my little brony. I still don't think a full solar system makes sense here. but one thing I'm looking more into is installing a smaller system just to peak shave air conditioning use in the summer (and whatever else I can get from it outside of that). I figure a smaller system (maybe 3 kW) would be fine. A smaller system would let less of the federal tax credit go to waste as well. If a 3 kW system costs about $7,500 (internet estimate), that could be an interesting proposition.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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You can roll over unused parts of the tax credit across multiple years BTW.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Pointedstick wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:55 pm You can roll over unused parts of the tax credit across multiple years BTW.
Right, I just likely will have a low federal tax liability.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Resurrecting this topic in hopes that I can entice Pointedstick to get back into the discussion. I know he has done solar and continues to have a keen interest in it.

I am now seriously investigating solar for my house and looking for any assistance I can get from Pointedstick and anyone else reading this.

I investigate solars in 2016 thinking then I was definitely going to get it then but for about five reasons I decided not to do so.

This is now part of all kinds of work I have had done and will be having done to my house this year.

When I was looking to buy my house in the 1982 winter a friend of mine who owned a woodworking company looked at it and told me that it would be a low maintenance house. That it has proved to be true as the last substantial money I spent on it was nearly 17 years ago - in December 2005 -for a new roof - $7,000.

I will be soon getting a new driveway - $8,000. For that to happen I had to first deal with some tree issues. The tree person to cut them all down and other trim work - $1,800. I've had an almost yearly problem with the annual snow melt putting water in my basement (almost never from any kind of rain). I hired someone to regrade all around my house, to put a water impermeable material with stones on top of that material in the back of my house, removed all the tree stumps left by the tree person, and also remove the stumps from about 12 shrubs. Cost - $3,500. Just had the end of my garage floor repaired - $500. Getting a new large garage door - $2,500. Getting a new side garage door and the large garage door entryway enlarged a foot - $?????.

I am about to review the three quotes I have received for solar. I think that they might be in the area of $25,000 for a 6,000 kwH system.

An issue that has arisen which I do not like is that each has said that my roof is too old to have a solar system put in it. My roof has 30 year shingles and everyone who has looked at it says that it is in excellent condition. Could go about 8 years with no issues. Maybe even the full 13 years to get to 30 years.

Therefore doing a premature roof replacement would be an additional cost of going solar. Additionally no tax credits would apply to this additional cost.

I've had three roofers come to my property this past week. The lowest quotes I received were $10,500 for the entire house and about $5,000 for the east side roof of the house where the solar would be located.

I had two friends come by on Friday to discuss this issue plus look at other work at my house. Both of them stated that they'd only do that east side of the house.

Spending $5,000 extends the current life of that part of the roof but I'm losing 1/3 of the value of the current roof by using at least 8 years of good roof life. Therefore I'm going to need to add about $1,700 to the cost of going solar, which will extend the number of years before the whole investment pays back.

In getting all the above work done I enlisted a "house committee" of more than 15 friends who came to my house or talked to me on the phone or communicated via email regarding all the issues regarding that work. Discussed was what specific work I should get done and who I should hire. Their advice was quite good and highly influential in me making decisions.

I have read various solar discussions here and hoping to add any of you to my "house committee" regarding going solar. I've read several of you discussing it both here and elsewhere and know Pointedstick, at least, has direct experience with a solar system.

One of this forum's attractions to me has been the high level of intelligence and knowledge that is brought to a wide variety of topics -- not just those related to the Permanent Portfolio.

Years ago I was somewhat involved in the Bogleheads. However, none for the last three year I've been here becasue I'm always going to be favoring a smaller forum such as this wherein I get far more familiar with its participants and their various expertise's (witnessed by me recently focusing certain questions toward kbg).

Now that I've completed this post I am going to also resurrect my own Excel worksheet analysis I created in 2016 which I believe it necessary and superior to the payback analysis that is provided to you by the solar companies. I use some of my own modified assumptions plus some things they leave out. Most importantly I bring it all back to a present value basis.

Thanks for any input any of you are willing to give regarding me going solar!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Pointedstick wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:55 pm
You can roll over unused parts of the tax credit across multiple years BTW.


The tax credit is a key issue for me going solar. My concerns:

As of 2021 my income reduced drastically and will stay at that level. I was shocked how little taxes I paid in 2021, what tax credits I was eligible to get, and how little my Social Security was taxed. Seeing this resulted in me accelerating some income that could have been in 2022 to 2021, so as to take advantage of how little my income was being taxed in 2021.

That leads to my concern of my ability to take advantage of the tax credits.

I could live with Pointedstick's assertion that the tax credit could be used over multiple years. I'd read "multiple" as being great than one year past the current year that the system is installed which generates the tax credit.

However, I have got from a few solar companies that the tax credit can only be used in two years. The year of installation and the next.

I've done my own research on this and have not been able to come up with a satisfactory answer. I've gone down to the level of the IRS tax code regarding this and it all seems rather nebulous. Not clear if it just two years or similar to other credits where unused ones get to be rolled forward for a number of years.

If it is only for two years I could drive up my taxes by converting some traditional IRA's to Roth IRA's. Not ideal. Plus, even worse it'd result in my Social Security being more heavily taxed than if I'd not be doing this. All this would have to be viewed as lessening the value of those tax credits.

I believe that all the solar companies completely fall down on the job when they do not provide all the current tax laws regarding these solar credits. They evade what I see to be their responsibility by telling you to consult your tax advisor.

This is something that they should have their accountants provide to them for them to then pass on to prospective customers. Yes, each person's tax situation is different but generic information regarding rollovers of these solar tax credits is basic information.

If you go to the web site of any business selling vehicles that can be used in business they provide ALL the relevant tax information regarding the beneficial tax write-offs you get upon purchasing the vehicles. Why are not all these solar companies doing the same?

Anyone else have a recent solar installation and end up rolling forward the subsequent tax credits?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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I can't help with specifics, but as an architect, I am extremely skeptical of any salesmen when it comes to the construction industry.

For whatever odd reason, I take the paranoia that our Libertarian friends have towards the Government and apply that to these folks.

In other words, I suspect the solar companies avoid giving tax guidance for good reason.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Vinny:

$25k for a 6 kWh PV array seems high to me. I'd shop around. That's what I paid three years ago for my 7 kWh system in a part of the country with lower labor costs. I bet you can find someone to do the job for $22k before the federal tax credit is applied.

And the solar companies are wrong about the solar tax credit being only rollable over a year. I rolled mine over three tax years with no issues.

On the other hand, the solar companies who don't like your shingles aren't bullshitting you about that. The service life of old shingles is not predictable because they're made out of materials that deteriorate over time. "30 year" shingles rarely last 30 years because past year 20 or so, they've become brittle so a significant weather event like a hailstorm, heatwave, or violent rainstorm will put enough stress on them that they'll fail. They really only last 30 years if you experience no weather events like those in their last 10 years, which is a gamble.

Thus your roof is very likely to need replacement quite early in the PV array's service life (50+ years at a high percentage of the initial rated capacity, and indefinitely at lower capacity). If you install the PV array now, expect about $2-4k to remove and replace it when you do a re-roof, and major delays because the work will have to be done by the solar company and coordinated with the electrical company. All of this will also need to be coordinated with the roofers by you, making you the GC of the project.

I strongly recommend doing a re-roof job right before you install the PV array, and furthermore, use a material with a similar service life to the PV array itself: metal, slate, concrete tile, or stone-coated metal. Forget shingles. In the end, I'd recommend paying more upfront and getting a better roof, rather than paying probably the same amount in the end anyway and winding up with a worse roof and the hassle of coordinating its removal and reinstallation (not to mention a period of zero production).If those other materials are out of budget or there are aesthetic concerns, do a re-roof with new shingles now, before the PV installation begins.

An alternative is to roll both projects into one and get Tesla solar shingles. Since this thread was started five years ago, they've matured as a product. I've read that they really work quite well, and are cost-competitive with a re-roof+PV installation. I have no direct experience though.

Good luck!
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Pointedstick wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:39 pm
Vinny:

$25k for a 6 kWh PV array seems high to me. I'd shop around. That's what I paid three years ago for my 7 kWh system in a part of the country with lower labor costs. I bet you can find someone to do the job for $22k before the federal tax credit is applied.

And the solar companies are wrong about the solar tax credit being only rollable over a year. I rolled mine over three tax years with no issues.

On the other hand, the solar companies who don't like your shingles aren't bullshitting you about that. The service life of old shingles is not predictable because they're made out of materials that deteriorate over time. "30 year" shingles rarely last 30 years because past year 20 or so, they've become brittle so a significant weather event like a hailstorm, heatwave, or violent rainstorm will put enough stress on them that they'll fail. They really only last 30 years if you experience no weather events like those in their last 10 years, which is a gamble.

Thus your roof is very likely to need replacement quite early in the PV array's service life (50+ years at a high percentage of the initial rated capacity, and indefinitely at lower capacity). If you install the PV array now, expect about $2-4k to remove and replace it when you do a re-roof, and major delays because the work will have to be done by the solar company and coordinated with the electrical company. All of this will also need to be coordinated with the roofers by you, making you the GC of the project.

I strongly recommend doing a re-roof job right before you install the PV array, and furthermore, use a material with a similar service life to the PV array itself: metal, slate, concrete tile, or stone-coated metal. Forget shingles. In the end, I'd recommend paying more upfront and getting a better roof, rather than paying probably the same amount in the end anyway and winding up with a worse roof and the hassle of coordinating its removal and reinstallation (not to mention a period of zero production).If those other materials are out of budget or there are aesthetic concerns, do a re-roof with new shingles now, before the PV installation begins.

An alternative is to roll both projects into one and get Tesla solar shingles. Since this thread was started five years ago, they've matured as a product. I've read that they really work quite well, and are cost-competitive with a re-roof+PV installation. I have no direct experience though.

Good luck!


Thanks for the quick response. Will have more later. Now myself going outside to directly experience some of those solar rays on my skin!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Oh and one more personal update:
Pointedstick wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:11 pm However in the meantime I have no gas bill and expect to receive a check from the electric company for all the extra electricity I produced this year, which I could alternatively use to charge an electric car FOR FREE. That's right, once I get an electric car, it will replace my $65/mo gas bill with... nothing.
I did this too, and got a Chevy Bolt a few months after posting that. And indeed, I've been driving for free since then, simply using some of the overproduction I built into the initial PV array sizing. The Bolt cost me $30k, far less than the average price of a new vehicle in the USA today ($47k). A Bolt costs even less today, too. It's a great car.

I feel even more confident today in my belief that total electrification is an affordable option that regular middle-class homeowners can choose, today, to drive various ongoing monthly costs down to zero. If you roll these costs into the existing costs of things you have to do anyway (replacing a car, roof, furnace, water heater, etc), the upcharge is relatively small, with the only major additional purchase being the PV array. But the end result is much lower monthly costs, immunity to energy price fluctuations, higher quality appliances with greater durability and longer service life, better indoor air quality, new functionality (I gained air conditioning when I got heat pumps), and so on. And it's good for the planet too, for those who care about that. It's not a pie in the sky fantasy. It's a thing you can start moving towards today. It just requires a bit of knowledge, planning, and patience.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Good to see you Pointedstick. I've always enjoyed your insights and perspectives. Wow, you, Maddy and Sophie back posting in less than a week - I'm excited!

... Mountaineer
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by I Shrugged »

Look into a new roof with the shingle-panels. Should be better than hoping they hit your rafters with the lag screws. And the shingle panels won’t leak.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Mountaineer wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 1:39 pm Good to see you Pointedstick. I've always enjoyed your insights and perspectives. Wow, you, Maddy and Sophie back posting in less than a week - I'm excited!

... Mountaineer
Thanks, you too!
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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+1
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Pointedstick wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:39 pm
Vinny:

$25k for a 6 kWh PV array seems high to me. I'd shop around. That's what I paid three years ago for my 7 kWh system in a part of the country with lower labor costs. I bet you can find someone to do the job for $22k before the federal tax credit is applied.

And the solar companies are wrong about the solar tax credit being only rollable over a year. I rolled mine over three tax years with no issues.

On the other hand, the solar companies who don't like your shingles aren't bullshitting you about that. The service life of old shingles is not predictable because they're made out of materials that deteriorate over time. "30 year" shingles rarely last 30 years because past year 20 or so, they've become brittle so a significant weather event like a hailstorm, heatwave, or violent rainstorm will put enough stress on them that they'll fail. They really only last 30 years if you experience no weather events like those in their last 10 years, which is a gamble.

Thus your roof is very likely to need replacement quite early in the PV array's service life (50+ years at a high percentage of the initial rated capacity, and indefinitely at lower capacity). If you install the PV array now, expect about $2-4k to remove and replace it when you do a re-roof, and major delays because the work will have to be done by the solar company and coordinated with the electrical company. All of this will also need to be coordinated with the roofers by you, making you the GC of the project.

I strongly recommend doing a re-roof job right before you install the PV array, and furthermore, use a material with a similar service life to the PV array itself: metal, slate, concrete tile, or stone-coated metal. Forget shingles. In the end, I'd recommend paying more upfront and getting a better roof, rather than paying probably the same amount in the end anyway and winding up with a worse roof and the hassle of coordinating its removal and reinstallation (not to mention a period of zero production).If those other materials are out of budget or there are aesthetic concerns, do a re-roof with new shingles now, before the PV installation begins.

An alternative is to roll both projects into one and get Tesla solar shingles. Since this thread was started five years ago, they've matured as a product. I've read that they really work quite well, and are cost-competitive with a re-roof+PV installation. I have no direct experience though.

Good luck!


My update!

Massachusetts is a part of the country with higher labor costs. This shows Massachusetts the #1 state with an "annual mean wage" of $72,940.

https://www.patriotsoftware.com/blog/ac ... -by-state/

Presently I have quotes from the three companies in the area that were the top three companies rated by the readers of an alternative newspaper.

Here is each of their prices for a given sized system:

$23,400 - 6.89 kWh
$25,500 - 6.57 kWh
$23,500 - 5.84 kWh

Regarding rolling over the tax credit. When I do anything on my tax returns I always document using authoritative sources -- usually something put out by the IRS and usually from their publications.

I spent hours and hours and hours yesterday trying to find an authoritative source for rolling over Solar federal tax credits with ZERO success.

I had some assertions that it could be rolled over for a period of five years. On the other end I got that if the issuing of the federal tax credit does end in 2023 as they will unless Congress changes that then any carry forwards will not be possible after that year.

Today someone responded to me with this which I think may (sadly) be the case: "The real issue is whether you can take the credit or roll it over for future years after the ITC has expired. Good question, but I'd bet the IRS doesn't even know."

I've had four roofers plus friends look at my roof. All agree that absent this need for going solar I'd not even be thinking of replacing my shingles. I am now convinced that if I am going solar then I should start with a new roof. That led to the question of replacing the entire roof or just the side (east) where the solar would be installed. I decided upon replacing just that section of the roof.

I am in year 17 with my 30 year shingles. One roofing person said I have anywhere from 8 to 13 years left with the shingles. If I go with the conservative 8 that means I've giving up 1/3 of the total life of the shingles. Therefore, I'm going to assign 1/3 of the $5,400 cost ($1,800) as part of the initial purchase of solar. The federal tax credit would not apply to this amount.

As part of a long discussion with the person who I will choose to do the roofing job I read to him your entire paragraph regarding what material should be used on the roof.

He said that metal would triple the cost.

Given that I am 71 years old and that I'd be buying 35 (to 40) year shingles it seems like they'd be a sufficient match to the life of the solar installation? The main question there is if I'm going to live long enough to match those lives! I have no plans of moving elsewhere.

Now you may say that the roofing person may have a bias with the following but .... I also brought up to him the possibility of Tesla solar shingles. He stated that while they are out of the beta phase they are not much beyond that. I'd be a test for them. It's not a finished product. He's never seen them work properly and that they'd be far more expensive.

Any day now I'm supposed to be getting a new driveway. I knew that I'd need to keep cars off it for two weeks. But a few friends told me that trucks should not go on it for a year. That means I'd want to get their roofing work done PRIOR to the new driveway. Which then means I need to decide before then if I am going to be going solar.

My ideal had been to get a new driveway by last (2021) Memorial Day. I'm willing to delay it for up to a month but I don't want to not have it for yet another year. I would be willing to put off solar for an entire year.

I'm willing to make the solar decision now if two things happen:

1) The solar companies tell me that based upon their observations of my property / house ...that they do not anticipate any additional costs arising as part of the process. I'm not asking for guarantees from them ... just an indication that I am asking for a simple installation, and they did not see anything that would raise any red flags with anyone outside of them who needs to give approvals and give permits, which then ends up requiring addition work to be done that would then raise my overall costs.

2) Something authoritative that states I can carry forward the unused credit for five years EVEN if there are no new federal tax credits created after 2023.

If I cannot get assurances on #1 then I might defer it all (including the reroofing) for an entire year. If I cannot get assurance on #2 I need to look at what it is going to cost me to do Roth Conversions to generate a tax to absorb the credit which will have the side effect of increasing how much of my Social Security gets taxed -- which will then decrease the value of those credits.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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vnatale
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by vnatale »

In my nearly 50 years of doing accounting work the concepts of "net present value" and "internal rate of return" have rarely arisen. Accounting is generally only concerned with using amounts that are historical cost based. The one time when I was negotiating a rental contract with the finance person of a medical group and was using "net present value" in all my proposals ... I could see that he really was not following it. Too complicated for him. So it turned out for me to be something I'd many times studied in various courses but it seemed like it was not used that much in real life.

These solar companies do their nice year-by-year analyses which then purport to show a payback period. The problem is that their analyses are a mish mash.

They annually inflate the electricity rates but then they do not discount them by an assumed inflation rate. They assume a savings 15 years from now is equal to the current $$$$ being spend today.

I start with their analyses and replicate it to make sure I have all their assumptions correct. I call all of this nominal amounts. Then right next to each of their columns I have a corresponding one on a net present value basis. That results in extending the payback period by a year or two compared to what the solar companies assert.

I had the long introduction above to state that I've done few "net present value" and "internal rate of return" analyses. Therefore I'm asking for a review of what I have done in case any of you find a flaw in what I do. Here is the far right side of my analysis for one solar scenario:

Capture.JPG
Capture.JPG (77.17 KiB) Viewed 4728 times


First two columns are the year # and actual year.

Net Nominal Value is the amount (going out) or coming in that year. In this case using Excel's IRR function I get an after tax IRR of 10.9% (12.8% before tax).

IRR is the IRR after each year.

Cum Net Nominal Value is the Cumulative Net Nominal Net Value after each year.

Net Present Value is my year-by-year amounts adjusted on a present value basis. You can see that the total for this column - $23,634 - is much less than the total on the Nominal basis - $44,378.

Cum Net Present Value is the Cumulative Net Present Net Value after each year. You can see this one pays back in year 11 in contrast to the solar company's year 9.

My last two bond columns are my attempt to say if instead of investing the $25,499 into a solar installation I invested that same amount in a bond. What would I have to get for an interest rate to get the same cumulative net present value as I am from the solar installation.

When I first set this up back in 2016 I did not have the principal amount of the bond investment returning in year 25. But it seems that I certainly need to have that?

These calculations resulted in an after tax return of 8.3% (before 9.8%). By the way, in all my calculations I'm assuming an even 3% inflation rate for all years.

With those rates of return (and getting my two issues above resolved) it seems wise to take some of the money I have invested in a short-term Treasury bill fund and buying a solar installation?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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As a paranoid architect...I'm inclined to agree with the roofer. The last thing you want to beta test is the weatherproofing system on your building. Maybe in the desert, but I think MA gets reasonable amounts of weather...

I see no harm in waiting two years. What would be the missed savings? I suspect it would be minimal. And you may be getting better tech in the meantime.

Of course the US can go to war with China and all hell breaks loose...but then again your roof won't help you on that front...
1/n weirdo. US-TSM, US-SCV, Intl-SCV, LTT, STT, GLD (+ a little in MF)
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Mountaineer »

Vinny, how long do your genetics and ancestry lifespans (with your appropriate lifestyle modifications) predict you will live? Might be worth cranking that into your your thoughts and rigorous financial study before making a decision.
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Mountaineer wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:32 pm
Vinny, how long do your genetics and ancestry lifespans (with your appropriate lifestyle modifications) predict you will live? Might be worth cranking that into your your thoughts and rigorous financial study before making a decision.


All I know is that my father died of pancreatic cancer at age 85. He'd prior had throat cancer presumably from having been a cigar / pipe smoker. My mother died at age 71. That is about all I know as I never met any of my grandparents and don't know their life spans.

As I said ... I've hit 71 years old. To date have not had to take any drugs. I'm Mr. No in all the things that I don't do / consume, e.g, meat, sugar, alcohol, drugs, processed foods, smoking. Exercise regularly. At 5' 8" and 142 pounds I think I am fairly low body fat.

My main recent achievement was three weeks ago in our coed softball game going 3-3 (including a double) and 4 RBI. Plus pitching the entire game for three games in a row.

I'm doing the best I can to keep the life span going. I've never adopted the attitude that I'm going to have to stop doing certain things by a certain age. I just keep doing all the same things I've always been doing.

But, as I always tell people I could end up being one of those people who someone like you might say, "I was just interacting with him on the forum a few days ago, he was in excellent health, he was doing all the right things, but now he is dead."

For now, though, I'm just going to assume that I am one of those who can make it to100!

I've been a super saver / super frugal all my life that making this solar investment is not going to affect my lifestyle in any way. But I'm going to first want to make sure that it is a value purchase.
Last edited by vnatale on Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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