Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

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Pointedstick
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Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:42 pm

I know we have some doubters here, so this may prove enlightening: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByfoG0 ... pGaDg/view

Part of it is specific to New Mexico, but there's a lot of data from nationwide and worldwide sources. Such as this:

Image

In most wholesale markets, solar is beating coal, and wind is beating natural gas--with natural gas at historically low prices. Forget the environment; fighting renewable energy is a now boneheaded financial move.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by dragoncar » Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:17 am

Who's fighting solar? I'm not a fan of rooftop solar (so ugly) but I'd love for my utility to build plenty of solar and give me a fat discount. If they need funding, they can offer a deal where I pay for the panels and they give me the output.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Mountaineer » Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:33 am

Is the solar line on the cost graph based on local (e.g. rooftop panels) or central (which would include transmission power losses and infrastructure investment)? Just curious.

For what it's worth, I applaud a goal of lower cost energy and a cleaner environment. I do not so much applaud the presuppositions in the linked article, e.g. CO2 is bad and solar/wind will make a (significant) contribution to reduce "climate change".
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by dualstow » Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:02 am

The only bad news I've read is that massive arrays can fry birds.
I'd love to have some cells on my roof, though. My brother already does.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by WiseOne » Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:49 am

Interesting that wind is even cheaper than gas. My understanding though is that you need a site that is consistently windy to make it economically feasible. NYC rooftops would otherwise be an optimal place for windmills, and you avoid the bird issue since there are few of them to be found at rooftop levels.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Maddy » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:07 am

When something claims to be cheaper, but it's not being done on any meaningful scale, you've either got to conclude that the market is inexplicably inefficient or that there are costs that are not being considered.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:22 am

Mountaineer wrote:Is the solar line on the cost graph based on local (e.g. rooftop panels) or central (which would include transmission power losses and infrastructure investment)? Just curious.
The latter. An all-inclusive price.

Mountaineer wrote:For what it's worth, I applaud a goal of lower cost energy and a cleaner environment. I do not so much applaud the presuppositions in the linked article, e.g. CO2 is bad and solar/wind will make a (significant) contribution to reduce "climate change".
Forget about climate change. It's irrelevant; this is a market-based phenomenon. But still, I can't help but be reminded of this cartoon I saw recently...

Image

Maddy wrote:When something claims to be cheaper, but it's not being done on any meaningful scale
Read the paper! These economic realities are extremely new which is why there isn't a huge installed base yet, but now it is being done on a meaningful scale. 63% of new capacity last year was renewable!

Image

All around the USA, coal-burners are being replaced with renewables as they age due to simple economics. Energy generation infrastructure doesn't turn on a dime; these things take a while. But the trajectory is clearly in favor of renewable electricity sources, especially if and when natural gas wholesale prices rise again. The market is historically good for gas right now, and that's the only reason why it's still competitive with wind.

And that's just in the USA. All around Europe, the energy market has been quietly transformed over the last few decades, unbeknownst to us:

http://www.investmentu.com/article/deta ... 0pziVe5hFI

Image

And that was as of 2012!
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:35 am

I think transmission is going to wind up the major solution to supply/demand matching issues. It's always sunny or windy somewhere, and the USA is a big place. Lots of transmission options also improves grid resiliency. Nuclear probably plays a role too for peaking loads and ramping up and down quickly. Same with geothermal in the western USA.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by dualstow » Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:27 am

That better world cartoon is hilarious!

Somewhat related: I recently broke out the Suntactics phone charger that MediumTex used to talk about. Works great in Florida, if not the cloudy Northeast US.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by stuper1 » Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:05 pm

What if it's a big hoax, and we create an even bigger national and global government for nothing?

Having said that, I have nothing against green energy, as long as it makes sense after considering all externalities.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:03 pm

stuper1 wrote:What if it's a big hoax, and we create an even bigger national and global government for nothing?

Having said that, I have nothing against green energy, as long as it makes sense after considering all externalities.
If we're going to consider the externalities (including bigger government), let's do the same for fossil fuels. These would include:

* Price volatility; government, commercial, and personal budget sensitivity to fluctuating fossil fuel costs
* Systemic fragility from energy sources originating far from their point of consumption and requiring large amounts of energy to produce, extract, and transport
* Geopolitical tension and instability caused by a great deal of fossil fuel production taking place in countries ruled by bad actors (Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, etc). For example Russia wields its fossil fuel production like a weapon over the Baltic states, making them wholly dependent on it even though they hate Russia.
* Mine/well pollution (heavy metal buildups, tailings ponds, aquifer contamination, earthquakes, etc)
* Mine/well eventual cleanup costs
* Bigger government caused by the above (wouldn't it be great if we could get rid of most of the EPA because our energy generation didn't pollute?)
* Public health effects (asthma, cancer, heavy metal contamination, etc)
* Effect on government budgets from providing medical care to the poor and indigent for the aforementioned issues (face it, this isn't going to stop)

And on and on...

Look, I'm not a blind zealot or a hippy-dippy tree-hugger. But I see a lot of frowny-face misanthropy from conservative-minded people these days regarding renewable energy sources that just doesn't make sense to me. I think it's the past history of having been pushed by lame hippies and big government types, but times have changed. Renewable energy sources are economically outcompeting nearly all fossil fuels on installed cost alone, not even taking into consideration a comparison of their externalities. These energy sources offer lifetime self-sufficiency and freedom from dependence on the fragile fuel infrastructure. Individuals, corporations, and municipalities can even choose to go off the larger grid completely eliminating all future electricity costs and encouraging local energy independence instead of being dependent on a huge national collective system. These things should be a conservative or libertarian's dream IMHO.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by stuper1 » Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:23 pm

Agreed, the externalities of fossil fuels should also be included. My own gut feel is that if that were the case, the price of gasoline at the pump would be maybe double or triple, which would cause some big changes in our society, which is fine with me.

I'm just tired of the media shoving something down our throats as if it were an inarguable fact, when in fact it is anything but. I'm talking about human-caused global warming. I'm sure the planet is warming. What is causing the warming is another question, which I don't think anyone knows the answer to. I work with computer models, so I know that they can be very unreliable and can be made to give any answer that you want.

Anything that all of the media agree upon is highly suspicious to me. Like when they were trying to shove down our throats that Trump is a loser. Well of course he is, but Clinton is a bigger loser, which they conveniently left out, or actually never realized living in their bubble.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:10 pm

stuper1 wrote:I'm just tired of the media shoving something down our throats as if it were an inarguable fact, when in fact it is anything but. I'm talking about human-caused global warming. I'm sure the planet is warming. What is causing the warming is another question, which I don't think anyone knows the answer to. I work with computer models, so I know that they can be very unreliable and can be made to give any answer that you want.

Anything that all of the media agree upon is highly suspicious to me. Like when they were trying to shove down our throats that Trump is a loser. Well of course he is, but Clinton is a bigger loser, which they conveniently left out, or actually never realized living in their bubble.
I get it, I really do. Sanctimonious liberals and their news media allies have been pushing dogmatic pro-government crap for ages. But this is what I'm talking about: you really need to separate the message from the messenger. Or the message from the truth itself! Again, forget about climate change. Pretend you never heard of it. Pretend nobody ever heard of it. In this alternate universe where nobody believes that human emissions of carbon dioxide are warming the planet, do renewable sources of energy still make practical and financial sense today? It seems to me that the answer is "yes."
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by stuper1 » Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:25 pm

Agreed also, and I know you get it, PS, it's just that the cartoon you posted seems to me to sort of lean in the opposite direction just a little, providing some cover for the smug do-gooders who really have no idea what they are talking about. I'm not disagreeing with anything you've said. If alternate energy makes sense, then it should be adopted and presumably will be adopted if all externalities for all options are properly accounted for. I for one hate fueling up my car, smelling petroleum fumes and knowing that my family and I are inhaling benzene and other known carcinogens.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Jan 18, 2017 6:44 pm

I sense that we are about to have a climate change thread. :)

Every several years there is some catastrophic prediction. Global cooling. Peak oil. Overpopulation. Drug resistant bacteria. Global warming. Based on past experience, I refuse to get worked up by the current ones. The problems get solved. Often, they never develop. Typically without the benefit of state action.

I'm not saying it's not happening or not coming. I'm saying I'm not getting worked up over the possibilities. I bet in another 10-20 years it turns out to be another peak oil.

(BTW I love solar technology. What's not to like? )
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Mountaineer » Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:07 pm

I Shrugged wrote: (BTW I love solar technology. What's not to like? )
Oh my gosh! What's not to like? I MAY have heard on (insert favorite [fake] news source) that the shade underneath the solar collectors MAY cause cumulative micro-local cooling with POSSIBLE devastating impact and the reflectivity of the solar collector MAY cause alien beings to notice our fair planet with all the subsequent POTENTIAL trauma related to gigantic robotic insects looking for solar panel components to munch while invading OUR planet and consuming the solar panels. Run, the end is near! Run! Hide. Revert to life in the first century; Nero the hero of a warmer Rome. ;)
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Mountaineer » Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:19 pm

Desert wrote:Agreed, this is a development that transcends politics. It's worth celebrating regardless of political persuasion. It was driven by technological advances. The only folks who can legitimately claim credit for this are the hard-working, under appreciated engineers and scientists.
Ditto. Engineers and scientists and welders and machinists and construction workers and plumbers and electricians and farmers and ranchers and ....... rule (I added those who do not depend on hand-outs to support themselves and their families and who actually produce something of value). The rest of you are nothing but a bunch of deplorables https://themusic.today/release/reed-bar ... le/8254547 . Full disclosure - I am an engineer. ;D
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:06 pm

I Shrugged wrote:I sense that we are about to have a climate change thread. :)
I am very deliberately trying not to! :) It's a bitter issue and nobody on either side will ever be convinced out of their view. So it's totally pointless to debate. I don't care anymore. That's why I'm trying to focus on the qualities of renewable energy that have nothing to do with climate change/"climate change"--like how it's cheaper, improves local self-sufficiency and air quality, disentangles us from geopolitically thorny petroleum politics, etc.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by WiseOne » Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:03 pm

Pointedstick wrote:
I Shrugged wrote:I sense that we are about to have a climate change thread. :)
I am very deliberately trying not to! :) It's a bitter issue and nobody on either side will ever be convinced out of their view. So it's totally pointless to debate. I don't care anymore. That's why I'm trying to focus on the qualities of renewable energy that have nothing to do with climate change/"climate change"--like how it's cheaper, improves local self-sufficiency and air quality, disentangles us from geopolitically thorny petroleum politics, etc.
Hear, hear.

Improved air quality and a layer of protection from widespread grid outages are reasons enough to pursue local wind and solar installations. Extra benefit if costs are lower.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by doodle » Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:36 am

stuper1 wrote:Agreed also, and I know you get it, PS, it's just that the cartoon you posted seems to me to sort of lean in the opposite direction just a little, providing some cover for the smug do-gooders who really have no idea what they are talking about. I'm not disagreeing with anything you've said. If alternate energy makes sense, then it should be adopted and presumably will be adopted if all externalities for all options are properly accounted for. I for one hate fueling up my car, smelling petroleum fumes and knowing that my family and I are inhaling benzene and other known carcinogens.
How does one decide as a society when something "makes sense"? Does the financial calculation on this change when your child has smog induced asthma or can't go outside and play because the air is so thick with poison that they can't breathe?

What gets my goat regarding this issue is that conservatives for decades have been ignoring all the costly negative externalities related to human and environmental health generated by fossil fuels when making their cost effectiveness calculations and doing everything they can to hamstring investment in future energy industries that have the potential to greatly improve life on this earth. I have more than a little resentment towards this political faction because of this.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:22 am

Simonjester wrote:i am curious how wind and solar are going to do all the heavy lifting that the economy moves on, or if that is even accounted for in the above graphs? just about every piece of big equipment from semi trucks, trains, planes, ships and the construction machinery that builds infrastructure are all diesel powered... how are those things going to be done with wind and solar?
This is just talking about electricity generation. Transportation is another project entirely, and a more challenging one due to he limitations in battery technology. Aviation in particular is probably going to remain fossil-fueled for for foreseeable future.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:26 am

doodle wrote:How does one decide as a society when something "makes sense"? Does the financial calculation on this change when your child has smog induced asthma or can't go outside and play because the air is so thick with poison that they can't breathe?

What gets my goat regarding this issue is that conservatives for decades have been ignoring all the costly negative externalities related to human and environmental health generated by fossil fuels when making their cost effectiveness calculations and doing everything they can to hamstring investment in future energy industries that have the potential to greatly improve life on this earth. I have more than a little resentment towards this political faction because of this.
I'm going to repeat myself: focus on the message, not the messenger. Couples therapists will tell you that bringing up past harms is a surefire way to derail a conversation and erase any agreement you've managed to achieve. In politics it's largely the same. Forget how in the past your political opponents have irritated you and worked against your conception of a better world. Focus on the points of agreement or that better world will never actually come to pass, and it'll be as much your fault as theirs.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by dragoncar » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:24 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Pointedstick wrote:
I Shrugged wrote:I sense that we are about to have a climate change thread. :)
Improved air quality and a layer of protection from widespread grid outages are reasons enough to pursue local wind and solar installations. Extra benefit if costs are lower.

Uh, air quality and grid outages are just an invention of the liberal media
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:29 pm

If you bemoan the poor state of political discourse nowadays but can't resist making bitter, snarky comments about your political opponents and their follies, foibles, and failures, understand that you are part of the problem. Be the change you want to see in the world.
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Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by PeteKoziar » Fri Jan 20, 2017 8:33 am

Simonjester wrote:i am curious how wind and solar are going to do all the heavy lifting that the economy moves on, or if that is even accounted for in the above graphs? just about every piece of big equipment from semi trucks, trains, planes, ships and the construction machinery that builds infrastructure are all diesel powered... how are those things going to be done with wind and solar?
Trains can already be powered by electricity, so they're not as big a problem.

Hydrogen isn't a fuel source as much as a storage medium, with a higher energy density than current batteries. One option is to use electricity to generate hydrogen, then use the hydrogen to power the big equipment.

- Pete
Simonjester wrote: passenger trains run on electric, is electric used anywhere for heavy transport trains? i am trying to recall if i have ever seen one and i cant think any..

edit to add (outside of short track lines in heavy industry like mining to get from one building/complex to the next)
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