Why do you use the PP?

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Dieter
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by Dieter » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:03 am

there are many portfolios that are BH (no one allocation as per PP.)

Way I see BH:

25% - 100% Stocks (50 - 70% for majority?)
      0% to 55% Intl (20% - 40% avg?)
      0 - 100% tilted (Small, Value, REIT, emerging mkt,...)
      Fixed allocation vs glide path
Bonds
      Mostly total market
      0 - 50% corp vs treasury
      Munis in taxable
      Duration 0 - ~6 years
      0 - ? International
Some concede 5% to maybe even 10% Gold / commodities ok
Emergency fund outside of portfolio

Although I consider the baseline to be the three fund portfolio:
  Total U.S.
  Total Intl.
  Total bond (US)

42/18/40 as a baseline?

Biggest differences:
  Gold, Intl stocks, bond duration, typical stock allocation
  Bond type lesser diff, as baseline BH is 50-60%+ Treasuries
  Plus no Stock tilting in PP (unless consider gold a tilt....)
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by goodasgold » Sat Jul 25, 2015 6:21 am

Dieter wrote:

Biggest differences:
  Gold, Intl stocks, bond duration, typical stock allocation
  Bond type lesser diff, as baseline BH is 50-60%+ Treasuries
  Plus no Stock tilting in PP (unless consider gold a tilt....)
Bogleheads (of which I was one, very profitably) need to get used to riding the roller coaster. I grew tired of it, especially as retirement approached, when I would no longer have a salary coming in to pay for my tickets on the roller coaster. As the years went by, I felt the chills more than the thrills.

I like the fact that the PP is much less volatile, although the prominence given to gold by the PP terrifies and annoys almost all BHers; holding large amounts of cash is also puzzling to them.

A big difference between the two philosophies is the steady asset allocation recommended by the PP, in contrast to the "age in bonds" philosophy of Bogleheads.

Also, a lot of Bogleheads recommend holding TIPs or TIP funds as part of the bond component, to blunt the impact of inflation. I was enlightened, after reading Craig R and MT's book, to learn how ineffectual TIPs really are in protecting us from the ravages of inflation. Gold is the way to go in this department, although I concede that the yellow stuff is not always reliable in countering inflation. But it is still the least problematic solution to this ravenous menace, I think.

Besides, I like the splendid independence of those often-despised gold coins, lazing around in their insured safety deposit box, just waiting to dust themselves off and rush to our rescue in times of need.

And I am somewhat troubled by Craig and MT's vague recommendations as to the percentage of our $ to be held in a VP. Bogleheads are much more strict in this respect, often recommending that no more that 5-10% be invested outside the bonds of BH holy matrimony.

But that said, as a "sheet anchor to windward" after conversion to the PP, I still hold roughly 1/3 of my portfolio the Boglehead way. Both philosophies are fine, in my opinion.
Last edited by goodasgold on Sat Jul 25, 2015 6:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by LC475 » Sat Jul 25, 2015 8:44 am

buddtholomew wrote: That aside, the only other difference between the portfolios is the amount allocated to equities. It is 100% in the BH portfolio and split 25% equities, 25% gold in the PP.
What do you mean?  Are you counting gold as a kind of equity?

I see gold as more of an alternative type of cash.  US dollars are cash for the short term, gold is cash for the long term.  Thus you have a portfolio that's 50% cash and 50% income-generating, and the income-generating is further split 50-50 between the two main ways to structure income-generating assets: debt and ownership.  At least, that's one way to look at it.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by iwealth » Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:54 am

buddtholomew wrote: Perhaps I would feel more comfortable if the losses were more evenly distributed across accounts. A loss in taxable (money I cannot afford to lose) is a lot more painful as the goal of early retirement remains illusive.
If one thing the last few years has proven it's that investing in the PP is not immune to poor start date timing. All of those recently posted fancy charts help visualize the somewhat dark reality that was buried under the rug until someone actually dug into the monthly start date data.

Depending on the month you started, historically it took up to 17 years before the PP returned 3% real CAGR. Too bad for those people that started in the first half of 1987! Those that started 5 years earlier saw > 6.5% real CAGR over their first 17 years. That's a seriously wide spread.

If you know exactly how many years are left before you want to retire, all of the necessary data is available to determine the historical success rate you'd have with the PP.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:14 pm

LC475 wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: That aside, the only other difference between the portfolios is the amount allocated to equities. It is 100% in the BH portfolio and split 25% equities, 25% gold in the PP.
What do you mean?  Are you counting gold as a kind of equity?

I see gold as more of an alternative type of cash.  US dollars are cash for the short term, gold is cash for the long term.  Thus you have a portfolio that's 50% cash and 50% income-generating, and the income-generating is further split 50-50 between the two main ways to structure income-generating assets: debt and ownership.  At least, that's one way to look at it.
Total Bond Market Index has a duration of 5.6 years. The fund holds a variety of bonds including corporates and treasuries. LT treasuries in combination with cash can replicate 5.6 years in duration and eliminate default risk. To me, these are similar enough approaches to consider the two options a wash over time (barbell vs. bullet strategy).

Now each portfolio has 50% remaining to allocate. BH will allocate the entire amount to equities and the PP splits 25% in Gold and 25% in equities. That is the major distinction between the two portfolios. BH investors may choose to hold REITs, INT or SC, but it is still considered equities.

Hope this clarifies.
Last edited by buddtholomew on Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by internationalcanuck » Sun Jul 26, 2015 6:07 am

I want to use the PP because I am living as an expat overseas.  My plan is to buy a house/relocate to Australia.  I have my retirement money in mostly equities since it is being invested for 30+ years, and can ride out the volatility. 
Because when I decide to move to Australia, I don't know what the economy will be like either here or in Australia, I want an investment plan that gives me a fair amount of certainty. I like the 25% cash as an emergency reserve if all hell breaks loose and I lost my job.  I at least would not be touching the other investments that are likely appreciate at some point in the future.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Jul 26, 2015 6:14 am

buddtholomew wrote:
LC475 wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: That aside, the only other difference between the portfolios is the amount allocated to equities. It is 100% in the BH portfolio and split 25% equities, 25% gold in the PP.
What do you mean?  Are you counting gold as a kind of equity?

I see gold as more of an alternative type of cash.  US dollars are cash for the short term, gold is cash for the long term.  Thus you have a portfolio that's 50% cash and 50% income-generating, and the income-generating is further split 50-50 between the two main ways to structure income-generating assets: debt and ownership.  At least, that's one way to look at it.
Total Bond Market Index has a duration of 5.6 years. The fund holds a variety of bonds including corporates and treasuries. LT treasuries in combination with cash can replicate 5.6 years in duration and eliminate default risk. To me, these are similar enough approaches to consider the two options a wash over time (barbell vs. bullet strategy).

Now each portfolio has 50% remaining to allocate. BH will allocate the entire amount to equities and the PP splits 25% in Gold and 25% in equities. That is the major distinction between the two portfolios. BH investors may choose to hold REITs, INT or SC, but it is still considered equities.

Hope this clarifies.
the intent of cash in the pp is to be neutral . it isn't there to pretend it is part of the bond fund to make it appear less volatile or to be part of stocks to make their beta appear lower or any other asset.

each asset is what it is without being combined with anything else to disguise it.

if stocks fell then the cash works with the portfolio as a whole .  if it is stocks and bonds then it mitigates both . but trying to pretend if you combine cash and long term bonds  like they exclusively are one and the same asset class  and  you really have an equal to an intermediate bond fund is not correct .

all that counts at the end of the day is that balance you have from the pp and not how you try to disguise the assets from what they are .

for all purposes long term treasury's are exactly what they are , stocks and gold are what they are and cash stands ready to do its part for the portfolio as a whole .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by Pointedstick » Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:22 am

mathjak107 wrote: you really can' look at cash in that manner  in my opinion .  your treasury position in long term treasury's will fully act as such the way it functions in the pp.  the cash is acting at the same time with other asset classes  taking part of its weight away from acting on the long term bonds  exclusively .

if bonds fell 15% and gold fell 15% with stocks flat the cash has not cut the duration in bonds to 5.6 years . the cash gets spread out over the effects of all assets .
That sounds like mental masturbation to me; your money doesn't care about such distinctions. ;D History shows that overall effect to your bottom line is indeed more or less the same for barbell and bullet strategies with the same duration.

Blue portfolio 100% 5-9 year treasuries; red portfolio 50% 30-year treasuries + 50% 2-year treasuries:

[img width=600]http://i.imgur.com/WsQSqxR.png[/img]
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:32 am

re-read what i wrote , i didn't word it exactly  they way i wanted it to mean.

correct as you said everything works together , cash is not part of the bond allocation and works with all parts equally .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by LC475 » Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:46 am

buddtholomew wrote: Hope this clarifies.
Yes, that does clarify.

You are lumping the cash with the bonds and saying all together it's a bunch of 5 or 6 year duration bonds, and that's 50%.

It's a perfectly valid and correct way of looking at it.

However, I do not think it is the ideal way to be looking at it and thinking about it, for you, most of the time.  Thinking about it my way is going to help you feel better about holding the HBPP, if holding it and feeling better about it is your goal.

You have split the pie in half vertically: left half bonds, right half gold and stocks.  I would say split the pie in half horizontally instead: bottom half cash, top half income production.  The cash is your foundation, your bedrock of safety.  There's two kinds of cash in the bottom half: US Dollars and gold.  They are both great for different reasons.  They provide you with safety, stability, and peace of mind.  You might say "Aack! No!  Gold provides me anything but stability!"  But actually, it really does.  It's an old goldbug saw, but it's true: The cost of a good man's suit in 1800 was about an ounce of gold, the cost today is about an ounce of gold, the cost in 1600 was about an ounce of gold, and even back in Roman times the cost of a good toga and sash was, again, about an ounce.  Gold has been a reliable way to store wealth for over 2000 years.  That's a good track record, I don't care how much you hate the stuff.  You just can't argue with that track record.  Gold is the best long-term cash available.  Gold is not going anywhere.  Gold will ride out the storms.  Gold is money, and the US dollar is money (both in very different ways!) and, as Harry Browne once wrote: that's what you need right now. (Money, that is).

You are a conservative investor.  Cash is a conservative investment.  And gold is an uber-conservative cash.
Last edited by LC475 on Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by Pointedstick » Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:54 am

Mandatory devil's advocacy: the USD price of a good men's suit was $250 in 2000 and $1800 in 2011?
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by Mark Leavy » Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:08 am

Pointedstick wrote: Mandatory devil's advocacy: the USD price of a good men's suit was $250 in 2000 and $1800 in 2011?
Maybe not an exact correlation, but...

Here's the 15 year chart for Merino wool :

[img width=800]http://i62.tinypic.com/2lncrxl.png[/img]
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by Pointedstick » Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:09 am

Whoa, that is spooky.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by lordmetroid » Tue Jul 28, 2015 3:14 am

Not spooky but an effect of the end of the 15 year commodity super cycle of which Jim Rogers usually speaks of.
Capital has been invested in order to secure commodities. Now this has been achieved and the next phas in the economic cycle can begin.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by portart » Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:58 am

I have used PP for ten years. This is the first time I some level of fear with the potential bottom dropping out of gold. I like Pointedstick's idea of a second more aggressive portfolio (same as a pp if you rolled into one with less gold and treasuries changing the percentages so it's how you want to look at it.) Of course trying to time when to sell some gold and move it around is tricky with it close to losing support and having another waterfall drop begin.  It's hard to change your philosphy...
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:04 am

If there was ever a good time to underweight gold, it was 2 or 3 years ago, not right now. As icky as this drop is, I'm not selling because that would be buying high and selling low. Same reason I'm not loading up on more stocks. I'm just letting the PP do its thing. If the stock market flames out and gold surges, that will be the time to transition into a portfolio with more stocks and less gold if that's what you want.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:17 am

Pointedstick wrote: If there was ever a good time to underweight gold, it was 2 or 3 years ago, not right now. As icky as this drop is, I'm not selling because that would be buying high and selling low. Same reason I'm not loading up on more stocks. I'm just letting the PP do its thing. If the stock market flames out and gold surges, that will be the time to transition into a portfolio with more stocks and less gold if that's what you want.
Trapped in the PP...it's funny how ridiculed I was when I saw this playing out. Stuck in gold until it eventually restores my losses which are now approaching 25%
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:21 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Pointedstick wrote: If there was ever a good time to underweight gold, it was 2 or 3 years ago, not right now. As icky as this drop is, I'm not selling because that would be buying high and selling low. Same reason I'm not loading up on more stocks. I'm just letting the PP do its thing. If the stock market flames out and gold surges, that will be the time to transition into a portfolio with more stocks and less gold if that's what you want.
Trapped in the PP...it's funny how ridiculed I was when I saw this playing out. Stuck in gold until it eventually restores my losses which are now approaching 25%
The thing is… this is just how the PP is. Something is always gonna be a stinker. It stinks the worst when the stinker is the thing you hate most, and when it starts to stink when you're just starting out.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:30 am

Pointedstick wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:
Pointedstick wrote: If there was ever a good time to underweight gold, it was 2 or 3 years ago, not right now. As icky as this drop is, I'm not selling because that would be buying high and selling low. Same reason I'm not loading up on more stocks. I'm just letting the PP do its thing. If the stock market flames out and gold surges, that will be the time to transition into a portfolio with more stocks and less gold if that's what you want.
Trapped in the PP...it's funny how ridiculed I was when I saw this playing out. Stuck in gold until it eventually restores my losses which are now approaching 25%
The thing is… this is just how the PP is. Something is always gonna be a stinker. It stinks the worst when the stinker is the thing you hate most, and when it starts to stink when you're just starting out.
So true...
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 19, 2015 3:15 pm

Why do I use the PP...  1 month chart below.  Gold is not $650 yet, bonds are still kicking and stocks have dropped.  And I don't care!

Boy, it's been nice to be diversified for the past year and a half.

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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by blackomen » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:54 am

IMO, the PP is the closest allocation I've seen to casting a completely neutral view on the economy. 

It sounds counter-intuitive but even going 100%, which seems like the default state for many people, is NOT a neutral view.  In that case, you're betting that your cash will outperform all assets and inflation.  Next time you panic sell a stock or index, ask yourself if you honestly believe cash will outperform what you just sold at the bottom.

Whether or not you choose to consciously invest, you're participating in the financial markets by virtue of earning money, depositing it in a bank, and using it to put a roof over your head and food on the table.

No matter how great you are at economic forecasting, there will always be times when your forecasts will be off.  And with the way the markets work, you're very likely to lose a ton of money if you made the wrong bet (i.e. stocks in 2008, gold in 2013, etc.)  It's hard to explain why in a short post but assets tend to exacerbate its losses when tons of investors end up fleeing it in a short period of time like in those two years.  And it only takes a bad year or two to effectively erase all of the gains you've worked so hard for and spent so many sleepless nights hoping for in the past.  So why not do it the easy way and take a neutral position instead of speculating?
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by vnatale » Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:08 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2015 7:04 pm
barrett wrote: I have mathjak on the ropes! Almost ten minutes have passed since my last post. I can smell victory! :)
you already know my feeling . the pp will not be a pleasant place to be if rates continue to rise  as that leveraged bond position will always be behind the curve by a lot no matter how much you rebalance for years after rates stop rising.    that can easily over power the rest unless a strong trend develops and even then it can be painful.

you are playing with fire but time will tell.  personally I think the bond position carry's to much weight at these levels along with to much dead money in gold .

can we make this prediction a sticky ?
4 1/2 years later.....the VERDICT on this prediction?

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by vnatale » Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:14 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:45 am
Having a PP and a VP is like being a devout Christian with a mistress on the side!!!  ;D

FYI, the fall in long term bonds and risk of further declines, and the astounding deadness of gold, has stopped me out of the HBPP totally. When gold was non-responsive to Grexit, I knew all of the goldbuggery was false and a lie. I'm in the same camp as mathjak107.  I'm now in a 60% / 20% intermediate bonds / 20% cash portfolio with 11 years left to go to retirement. I am waiting until this old bull runs out of steam and falls over, then I will redeploy the piles of cash, like I did in the 2009 slump. Also will put aside some funds to buy gold when it's 20-50% off from where it is now.

I put a reminder event to remind myself to look on 1/1/2020 to see how the past five years have been for the HBPP. I'll be that much closer to retiring, I will re-consider it as a distribution-stage allocation.

mathjak107 wrote: your best bet is to do exactly what pointed stick did if you run a variable.

no matter how you try to disguise your re-weighting things with a vp and calling it a separate portfolio your money has no memory as to  which gang it belongs too.

it is like buying a target fund then buying all kinds of other investments  un-doing what the target fund is trying to do .

if you have a vp look at it all together or you are fooling yourself but not your money .

as a true pp'er you have to live with the thought any moment can be the moment you have been waiting for , ( otherwise why hold so much gold  when conditions are so far off for it ?) and to be weighted the wrong way can undo years of waiting for this moment .

so you should look at your total portfolio as just that instead of a part time pp'er with a side bet . . .
And??????????????????

Vinny
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by ochotona » Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:58 pm

And... I'm glad not to have been in the PP over the last five years. On the other hand, I have missed out on the pure US market buy-and-hold gains because I've been doing momentum investing, first GEM then Investingforaliving.us, but I'm glad I did what I did. I managed my downside risk, and captured a large part of the upside. What more could you want?

Having said that, the PP looms large in my future as a retirement allocation. I've said that many times, and I still believe it. I expect to inherit some money within the next decade, and it will go as a lump into the PP. I for sure don't want to be trading in a taxable account.

I am quite glad the discussions motivated me to put 10% of the portfolio into gold when it was priced low, it's now 13%.
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Re: Why do you use the PP?

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:49 am

taxes are taxes and one way or another we get taxed unless we die with equities in a taxable account . so i never let the tax tail wag the tax dog .

i do what is best financially and never not because i may be taxed.
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