Question for original forum members

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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BearBones
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Question for original forum members

Post by BearBones » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:49 pm

I am wondering if some/many of the original high volume contributors have changed their perspective on the PP over the past few years.

So very specific question for those members (such as CraigR, MT, Gumby, Moda, Dualstow, Doodle, Stone, etc) that joined before 2013 AND have more than 1000 posts (i.e., the earliest active members):

1. About what % of your investments are still in the PP, if any?
2. Have you changed your portfolio over the past several years, given the favorable performance of the stock market and/or the recent change in interest rates?
3. If so, what do you favor?

Thanks!
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by l82start » Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:26 pm

early member, still in traditional 4x25 pp, it took me a couple years to transition fully from boglehead portfolio to pp and from TLT to holding long bonds, i picked up a small dab of EDV along the way but not really enough to effect performance, took a couple hundred buck bet on junior gold miners as a VP (no wins there yet) and just recently picked some small cap in a new 401k that has lousy options and not much accumulation power.. so basically buy and hold set it and forget it PP investor.. no change of perspective
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Pointedstick » Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:31 pm

Joined in 2012, so I guess I count.

1. Roughly 50% pure PP.
2. Yes, if I had to start all over I would probably go with the Golden Butterfly portfolio where possible. 25% stock exposure in the standard PP is and has always been too low for my tastes. 40-50% is just right for me. Nothing wrong with the regular PP; it just doesn't suit my risk tolerance as well as the GB does.
3. Tax-deferred accounts without easy access to commission-free gold are in 100% Vanguard Wellington. The remainder is GB.

The next time the stock market collapses, I plan to convert the remaining PP into GB during the rebalance.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by sophie » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 am

Also joined in 2012....wow, it's been that long?

1. 40% in the 25x4 PP. The other 60% is in employer retirement plans with no access to gold. These are divided between TIAA-CREF (about 40% stocks & real estate, the remainder in TIAA Guaranteed) and Vanguard, with a three-fund Boglehead portfolio set at 50% stocks.
2. No major changes, just tweaks. I stopped buying US savings bonds a few years back, and have been socking taxable cash in an online savings account getting 1% interest. I took advantage of 2013 to tax loss harvest GTU and buy physical gold. Recently I set up monthly equal contributions to all four assets.

EDIT: Like Tenn, I started out trying to make my retirement accounts part of the PP. With no access to gold, that became impossible to maintain and in 2013 I gave up. My PP is spread across multiple accounts (taxable, HSA, Roth etc) but all of them are completely under my control.
3. I favor not using the PP as an active/momentum investing vehicle. Thinking about the Golden Butterfly also, but I sort of effectively have one with the Vanguard 403b. When it comes time to move money out of that account I might switch to GB.
Last edited by sophie on Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:01 am

Hi Bear. You should reinstall your avatar when you get a chance. I miss it.

I do wonder about some of the early members like Wonk, gizmo-rat, 6 iron, WildAboutHarry, et al who seldom post now, or not at all. I want to know if they moved to a different strategy or just got tired of the forum, as the portfolio mostly runs itself.

1. Still 35% pp.
2 & 3: Since vp+pp is still 50% in stocks, I have been able not to do anything too crazy.
Gold remains the one creature I grapple with. Even if I don't tinker too much, I have changed my outlook many times about whether or not I should go 100% pp. I can keep telling myself that the gold will be a fine thing to pass on to relatives if it doesn't surge in value in my lifetime (I'm in my forties). But, if that's the way I feel about this asset, am I ready to put 25% into it? Maybe not.

A recent Vanguard blog entry says
Our asset class forecasts, anchored on a future of 2% growth, assign the highest probabilities to:

Global bond market returns of 2.5%–3% over the next decade.
Global equity returns of 6%–8% over the next decade.
The U.S. stock market is giddier, suggesting a different economic future.
- I have no regrets about moving toward a pp so far, even though my stock-heavy portfolio would have made me richer at this point. Who knows if I would have stuck with it? Well, I didn't stick with it. O0 I'm comfortable where I am.
- A surge in gold is still a possibility, and maintaining this % in the pp is good enough. I won't look back and question why I didn't go all in. More than one road to doublin'.
- It's natural to be attracted to whatever asset is doing great right now. When the market crashes, and it will, the pp will attract and re-attract new adherents. I was sad when iwealth, a very intelligent member, departed, saying that he didn't understand gold and that he "just get(s) stocks." I have a sneaking suspicion that when gold is up and stocks are down people will "get" gold just fine. ;)
- This would be a fine time for all-equities investors to diversify into the permanent portfolio!
- So, I'm still torn between the idea that all these bogleheads are growing rich and doing fine pretending that gold doesn't even exist (hence my vp) and the idea that a certain set of conditions could make most-to-all bogleheads very sorry, while pp'ers will be doing just fine.
- VP has indy stocks, muni bonds, corporate bonds (VCIT), & midterm treasuries.

How'bout you?
BearBones wrote: 1. About what % of your investments are still in the PP, if any?
2. Have you changed your portfolio over the past several years, given the favorable performance of the stock market and/or the recent change in interest rates?
3. If so, what do you favor?
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Tyler » Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:09 am

I still count discovering the HBPP and learning about how it works as being the single most important step in my personal investing education. It has served me extremely well, and while I've started tinkering around the edges I really don't see myself ever replacing the foundation barring a major change in how the financial system works.

FWIW, my portfolio modeling exploits were largely inspired by this forum and my desire to accurately model the PP and compare it to more traditional options. The thing I didn't really expect is just how well the PP holds up not just to a typical stock/bond blend but also against other fancy alternatives. Especially in the retirement portfolio space, the PP is extremely difficult to beat.

I did eventually give in last year and start my own VP, putting 20% of my money in small caps to create my own Golden Butterfly. But it's not because of recent stock performance, interest rate fear, or anything like that. It's simply because I found that it increased the historical returns a bit while preserving the other features that make the PP so appealing. It's cool to see that several people have also found the idea helpful, but Harry still deserves 80% of the credit. ;D
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:12 pm

I don't have 1000 posts, but,

I started my PP in the depths of the 08-09 crash. I needed to capture some big capital losses at the time, so it was a great time to make the move.
I am still there, within 15/35 bands. Stocks are low-30-something percent now. I would not mind if stocks climbed to 40%, but I am not going to sell anything that results in realized capital gains to get there. Well, if stocks were to crash to 15%, I would find a way to rebalance into them.

So for me, there really is not much to discuss. Not until the next big move in the stock market, or bond crash, or gold spike, or some combo of those.

I think the Other folder is a double edged sword here. On the one hand it keeps some members active. On the other hand, it has driven some away either by their or the moderators' choice.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Pointedstick » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:25 pm

I Shrugged wrote: I think the Other folder is a double edged sword here. On the one hand it keeps some members active. On the other hand, it has driven some away either by their or the moderators' choice.
Let's face it, the PP is a boring-ass portfolio. After a while there just isn't a lot to say about it--or its cousins.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:11 pm

I Shrugged wrote:I think the Other folder is a double edged sword here. On the one hand it keeps some members active. On the other hand, it has driven some away either by their or the moderators' choice.
This has got to be one of the most laid back forums ever. It's always the member's own choice, even if they happen to choose suicide by moderator.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Alanw » Tue Mar 14, 2017 4:39 pm

Pointedstick wrote:
I Shrugged wrote: I think the Other folder is a double edged sword here. On the one hand it keeps some members active. On the other hand, it has driven some away either by their or the moderators' choice.
Let's face it, the PP is a boring-ass portfolio. After a while there just isn't a lot to say about it--or its cousins.
Have been a member since 2010, although I don't post much. After discovering the HBPP in 2010, I switched my portfolio to the 4x25 and Wellesley in early 2011. Currently I am approximately 60% PP, 30 - 35% Wellesley and 5 - 10% leftover funds with some additional cash. Right now my fear is holding LTT's but I guess we are always fearful of at least 1 asset class at any given time. As an aside, my most dreaded purchase in the PP were LTT's at approx. 4.25%. Since then, I have had to rebalance out of them twice because of profits. Just goes to show we cannot predict the future. I am retired and withdraw 4 - 5% annually out of investments and we both draw SS. My returns have not been spectacular but the accounts are about the same balance as 6 years ago. All in all, I am happy with the PP and Wellesley mix with no plans to change anything in the future.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Tortoise » Wed Mar 15, 2017 3:42 am

Joined in 2010, don't post very often.

Other than a 12-month emergency cash fund, I'm still 100% HBPP.

The relatively low volatility and agnostic, defensive "firewall" strategy are what initially attracted me to the PP, and they are what continue to keep me invested in it.

I plan to stick with the HBPP for many years to come.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:55 am

Tortoise wrote:Joined in 2010, don't post very often.

Other than a 12-month emergency cash fund, I'm still 100% HBPP.

The relatively low volatility and agnostic, defensive "firewall" strategy are what initially attracted me to the PP, and they are what continue to keep me invested in it.

I plan to stick with the HBPP for many years to come.
Tortoise, curious why you maintain a 12-month EF separate from the HBPP portfolio. I always have as well, but am now considering investing the EF cash evenly across the 4 assets. I appreciate the reduced volatility the cash provides but concerned losing substantially to inflation is a larger issue.

I have been invested in the PP since 2011 and continue to hold the 4 assets in a taxable account. Have been invested in a 70/30 BH portfolio since 2008 so can compare/contrast the portfolios quite well.

In a raging bull market the 70/30 allocation dwarfs the PP in returns. LTT'S and Cash are similar to IT fixed income duration so the true difference between the portfolios is the allocation to yes, you guessed it, gold.

I hate gold, but when looking at my entire portfolio as a whole, the 25% allocation in the PP ends up only being 7.5% of total.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Khisanth » Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:56 pm

Still around since September 2011, but pretty much just lurking:

Currently 50% PP / 50% VP

PP consists of:
30.20% Cash
27.36% VTI
20.40% IAU / PHYS / GLD
22.05% TLT

VP Consists of individual stock in:
AAPL
TSLA
FB
NVDA

I did dabble in the 3X ETFs for a short period of time in 2012/2013? but didn't like the decay, so back to plain vanilla 4x25
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by KevinW » Wed Mar 15, 2017 4:14 pm

Member since 2010, just shy of 1000 posts.
BearBones wrote: 1. About what % of your investments are still in the PP, if any?
Nearly 100%. DW and I each have a 401k and IRA, and each of the 4 accounts is a separate, conventional 4x25 PP. There is a small legacy retirement account in PRPFX. The only ex-PP assets are operating cash in a checking account, and a small sentimental VP of DIS stock.
BearBones wrote: 2. Have you changed your portfolio over the past several years, given the favorable performance of the stock market and/or the recent change in interest rates?
Nope. I've made some minor changes regarding the cash vehicles, and the PRPFX account, but everything has been a pure PP this whole time.
BearBones wrote: 3. If so, what do you favor?
Sometimes I ruminate about switching to a dividend fund like VYM. Part of me likes the idea of treating dividends as a sustainable cash flow while stoically ignoring NAV prices. This looks great in backtests, but I don't think I'd like it so much in practice.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Mar 15, 2017 4:16 pm

BearBones wrote:I am wondering if some/many of the original high volume contributors have changed their perspective on the PP over the past few years.

So very specific question for those members (such as CraigR, MT, Gumby, Moda, Dualstow, Doodle, Stone, etc) that joined before 2013 AND have more than 1000 posts (i.e., the earliest active members):

1. About what % of your investments are still in the PP, if any?
2. Have you changed your portfolio over the past several years, given the favorable performance of the stock market and/or the recent change in interest rates?
3. If so, what do you favor?

Thanks!
I've got around 47% of my total NW in the PP right now. I have moved to a simpler, more pure PP as time went on. Only TSM as my stocks, only gold bullion as my gold, and individually purchased treasuries (plus I and EE bonds) for cash and bonds.

All of my fuckery involves the VP.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Tortoise » Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:59 am

buddtholomew wrote: Tortoise, curious why you maintain a 12-month EF separate from the HBPP portfolio. I always have as well, but am now considering investing the EF cash evenly across the 4 assets. I appreciate the reduced volatility the cash provides but concerned losing substantially to inflation is a larger issue.
I maintain my 12-month EF separately from my PP because I maintain separate PPs in each type of account--taxable, 401k, and IRAs--and simply don't have enough taxable assets yet (aside from a home down payment that I will use soon) such that 25% of it would be enough for the 12-month EF.

Until I've accumulated 4+ years of living expenses in taxable investments, my taxable PP will be cash-heavy to ensure the cash portion is a 12-month EF. Over time, as my taxable assets grow, that 12-month EF will gradually become the 25% cash portion of a taxable PP.

Inflation sucks, but I view it as the "price" of holding cash for emergencies, ready to spend at a moment's notice.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Thomas Hoog » Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:19 am

I have learned about the Permant Portfolio in 2002. I dont know when I discovered this forum
In 2002 I had about 70 % equities allocations so I moved to a modified PP [40% stocks, 20% gold, 30% LTT, 10% cash $/€ mixed].
With an average yield over 15 years of 6,1 % I have no reason to change the strategy so I still have the same allocation.
This vanilla PP portefeuille is about 95 % of my assets.
5 % is in a dividend focus equity portfolio because that is more fun to work on. The only flaw on the PP portfeuille is that it is very very boring.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by steve » Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:37 am

I'm still 100% invested in PP, I re-balance when necessary. I do not post much anymore because there really is not much to say that hasn't been said.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by smurff » Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:36 pm

I have about 50% of financial assets in a 4 by 25 Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio. It had been about 75%, but as I played around with individual stocks, that part of my Variable Portfolio took off. That said, I feel blessed that I started a PP. It gives a real sense of peace when it comes to what to do with one's assets.

I started my PP during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and I joined this list shortly after that. It was a godsend when I first started, because most of the financial advice out there focuses on stocks, mutual funds, and (for older people), bonds. I wanted to hear from experts with other perspectives, and there were (are) lots of them here.

I haven't posted since 2013, but I've been lurking and reading posts from New and old voices.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by EdwardjK » Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:59 pm

Regrettably you missed "Clive" and all his posts. I seem to recall he concluded the PP was not sufficiently diversified and moved on, after requesting all his posts be deleted.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by smurff » Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:46 pm

I remember Clive. He used to post colorful charts and tables, and argue about all kinds of stuff--especially his nonPP portfolio. He's probably still lurking, too.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Xan » Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:27 pm

Clive was banned after repeatedly claiming that the founders of this forum were effectively stealing from Harry Browne's widow by publishing their book.

The deletion of posts was all his idea. In fact he'd regularly delete his old posts long before the ban. I think he didn't want any of his words to be used against him.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by gizmo_rat » Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:50 am

dualstow wrote: I do wonder about some of the early members like Wonk, gizmo-rat, 6 iron, WildAboutHarry, et al who seldom post now, or not at all. I want to know if they moved to a different strategy or just got tired of the forum, as the portfolio mostly runs itself.
I'm still around and stuck with the PP. I'm about 85% PP and the remainder in 50/50 TSM/TBM. I was fairly anxious about taking on management of my investments as its not really my thing, but the PP does what it says on the box and I dont give it much thought.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:39 am

I wouldn't have known about the pp if it weren't for craigr's and medium-tex's posts on
the other forum. That led to my buying Harry's books, too. So, if that's stealing... ???
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:58 am

i found harry back in the 1980's and read all his books back then . i still have my original copy of why the best laid investment plans usually go wrong .
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