The political re-alignment of our time

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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MachineGhost » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:08 pm

Pointedstick wrote: I predict that the new populist Republican party enthusiastically embraces the welfare state and public benefits, but adds conditions to them, such as means testing, drug testing, no benefits if you're not married or not a citizen, etc. Populists like government benefits, but as Tenn mentioned, only if for people (often themselves included) whom they can be convinced have "earned" them. Expect the new Republican party to advocate generous government benefits for people who are citizens, employed, net taxpayers, married, drug-free, etc, and few to none for people not meeting those conditions.
So they'd be against the Citizen's Dividend?  Well, I'll be over on the Democrat side then!  They will care about me.

It's a nice fantasy but that's all it is.  No one knows what is going to happen.  And you forgot about dealing with the extremist religious conservatives.  Where the hell are they going to go?
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MachineGhost » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:14 pm

Desert wrote: We'll look back at this period one day and wonder at the madness of crowds, and our kids will mock us for being so blind.  But we aren't really blind; we just want to win.  We want to get on the winning bus and fight back against the "great other" that is oppressing us.  The Mexicans, the Muslims, the Chinese ... they are responsible for our ills, and only Trump can save us now.  So I'm putting on my red hat (red?  really?), and I'm goin' out to get me some justice.
What are you, some kind of transnational elitist?  You're hyper-obliviating about what is just political anger at crony capitalism.  So why are you on the losing side?
 
Seriously, you think the USA is going to end just because we actually start enforcing our immigration laws and clean up the expensive mess they've been causing us and reinforce our shared values via cultural assimilation?  Bizarro world.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MachineGhost » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:22 pm

Pointedstick wrote: Yes. Because he is a canny, calculating man who--as we see in the presidential race--uses exactly as much force as is needed to get his way, and no more, but he also knows how to fold, withdraw, and redirect while saving face. Tonight in the debate he was caught in some blatant flip-flopping and he basically turned it around and said, "Okay, so I'm a flip-flopper. I can change my mind when things change or I get new information. Can't you?"
That's his economics degree at work via Keynes.  What inquiry was this in response to?
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MachineGhost » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:26 pm

moda0306 wrote: I struggle with this. I simultaneously love the guy and am disappointed in the expansion of the executive that he made commonplace.
That's the disease of socialist/communist/progressive ideals.  It's enticing like a naked, beautiful woman rated 10 (if you're into that kind of thing).
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MachineGhost » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:28 pm

moda0306 wrote: But if any one president illustrates all the great or scary things that can result from monarchy, it's Teddy, IMO.
No, its FDR.  He so effectively neutered the Judicial branch against government overreach and intervention that the modern nation state we've come to love and abhor is traced back directly to him.  So lets compromise and say the Roosevelt brothers were the worst monarchies in our history.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MachineGhost » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:41 pm

Pointedstick wrote: What Kool-aid? What did I say that you disagree with?
I don't technically disagree with anything, although I view this topic as pure speculation on your part as no one can know the future.  I'm a little more circumspect because overthrowing the "powers that be" is never as simple in practice as it feels.

Nonetheless, I looked up populism and I believe you are correct in identifying that aspect.  I would even call myself an anti-elitist populist who mistrusts experts with a strong anti-authoritarian American identity!  But that is based on wisdom, knowledge and experience which isn't really the image I get when thinking of populism kowtowing to the lowest common (emotional) denominator.  Maybe I've underestimated the value of the sense of injustice people feel.  One doesn't have to be super-smart to recognize when things are unfair or wrong.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MachineGhost » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:46 pm

Desert wrote: I'm more of a globalist financier, trying to usher in the new world order.
Well, you sure sound like one.  Funny how YOUR fucking selfish interests are far more important the public's.  No vote from me!
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Pointedstick » Sat Mar 26, 2016 6:34 pm

Desert wrote:
MachineGhost wrote:
Desert wrote: I'm more of a globalist financier, trying to usher in the new world order.
Well, you sure sound like one.  Funny how YOUR fucking selfish interests are far more important the public's.  No vote from me!
What are you even talking about?  Seriously, I have no idea what topic you're even trying to discuss.  Are you saying you are voting for Trump and I'm selfish for not voting for him?
Yes, clearly! We know how you sneer down at us proles through your monocle, wearing your tophat and fingering that gold-handled cane. You evil destroyer of the global commons, you!
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Greg » Sat Mar 26, 2016 7:14 pm

Desert wrote:
Pointedstick wrote:
Desert wrote: What are you even talking about?  Seriously, I have no idea what topic you're even trying to discuss.  Are you saying you are voting for Trump and I'm selfish for not voting for him?
Yes, clearly! We know how you sneer down at us proles through your monocle, wearing your tophat and fingering that gold-handled cane. You evil destroyer of the global commons, you!
That's beautiful!  ;D

I especially like the monocle image ... maybe one day I can be that guy.  I'll keep working at it, tirelessly.
Be careful about wanting to be that guy, otherwise you're apt to go a little nutty (I love a good pun)
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MachineGhost » Sat Mar 26, 2016 10:35 pm

Greg wrote: Be careful about wanting to be that guy, otherwise you're apt to go a little nutty (I love a good pun)
Image
Very curious.  Now I want to know the backstory of why a peanut looks like a Baron Robber.  Were peanuts expensive and only avalable to the super-rich at one time?  Details, please.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:10 pm

MangoMan wrote:
MachineGhost wrote:
moda0306 wrote: But if any one president illustrates all the great or scary things that can result from monarchy, it's Teddy, IMO.
No, its FDR.  He so effectively neutered the Judicial branch against government overreach and intervention that the modern nation state we've come to love and abhor is traced back directly to him.  So lets compromise and say the Roosevelt brothers were the worst monarchies in our history.
The Roosevelt presidents were not brothers,  they were like fifth cousins. Where are you getting your facts these days?
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by rickb » Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:22 pm

MachineGhost wrote: Very curious.  Now I want to know the backstory of why a peanut looks like a Baron Robber.  Were peanuts expensive and only avalable to the super-rich at one time?  Details, please.
There is (of course) a Wikipedia article:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Peanut
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MachineGhost » Sun Mar 27, 2016 12:12 am

MangoMan wrote: The Roosevelt presidents were not brothers,  they were like fifth cousins. Where are you getting your facts these days?
Whoops!  Didn't think too hard about that, but honestly I had no idea they were cousins either.  It's just irrelevant to me (I'm not a woman).

Boy, talk about anti-climatic with Mr. Peanut...
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Pointedstick » Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:36 pm

Checking in a year later... how did I do!?

The Democratic party is definitely doubling down on cosmopolitanism. But I don't see many of the changes to the Republican party that I predicted. Trump himself has turned out to be much more incompetent and immature than I thought, and has been unable kick out the neocons and Heritage Foundation types. He's delegated his legislative agenda to establishment figure Paul Ryan and moved to a more conventional directionless Wilsonian foreign policy.

However, the very public failure to repeal Obamacare definitely reveals the new popularity of big government welfare programs on the right, though: it turned out that there were only like 30 Real Conservatives in the house and the rest of them were totally fine with Obamacare, mostly objecting to the fact that it was passed by the other party.

I think Clacy got it right: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=8232&start=36#p144169 If anything the percentage of "true conservatives" is much much smaller than he guessed.

Looking back, MG was right: I really had drunk the kool-aid. I was still a not-so-secret Trump supporter, and in a somewhat dark place. I used a lot of false equivalence: "Trump might do this bad thing, but Obama/Hillary/Bush/everyone else already does it!" There's an element of truth to that, but trends can worsen, and they have.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Maddy » Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:43 pm

And now. . . [drumroll]. . . Bailouts!
https://www.thenewamerican.com/world-ne ... ek-bailout
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:36 pm

I read a blog post today that made some sense regarding Trump's drastic change.
Namely, suggesting that "they" truly have something big on him, or have otherwise shown him what could they could make go wrong for him personally.
Of course it's just an idea, a conspiracy theory to boot, but it would explain it. I don't think any of us have ever seen a change from candidate to president to this degree. It's a matter of which wild explanation is the true one.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Jack Jones » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:22 am

Desert wrote:Also, character is important, even in a politician. Good things do not flow from a rotten character, no matter what they promise.
This is the thesis of Covey's 7 Habits book. It's an excellent book despite seeming cheesy.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by LC475 » Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:44 pm

Pointedstick wrote:Trump himself has turned out to be much more incompetent and immature than I thought, and has been unable kick out the neocons and Heritage Foundation types.
I think you are totally right (in a way), but do not know how right you are.

This is the fundamental truth at the root of things: The Congress, the President, all these people are figureheads.

Think about it.

Trump is a CEO. He knows when he's in charge. He knows when he's not. And he definitely, definitely is not. No question about that. So, what is he doing about it?

I choose to believe that he is working on gaining some actual power. He is a very smart individual, and is playing some very complicated games on many different levels. I know, I know, four-dimensional chess is a tired meme about Trump, but I think there's a lot of truth to it. He won the election. Could I have done that? No. He's really, really smart. The things he did during the election, those that I understood, were really, really smart. Hilariously smart in many cases.

A lot of what is looking like incompetence could be, well, intentional incompetence. See here, for instance: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/1588126544 ... healthcare

The Deep State runs things. They have for a long time. Who we elect has long been more or less irrelevant (and trending strongly to less and less as the decades roll on). Window dressing. Bread and circuses. The underground machine keeps on machinating, unaffected. Is Trump trying to stage a coup against the Deep State? Maybe.

I choose to believe that he is. We shall see.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Pointedstick » Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:14 pm

Trump is definitely cunning, and his intuition is incredible. These are both "shoot from the hip" type traits, and Trump is nothing if not spontaneous in taking advantage of currents and forces that are just under the surface that nobody else notices, talks about, or knows what to do with. It works because nobody else in D.C. does this, not even the people who pretend to. But it has its limits if that's the only style of gunslinging you know, and I think we're seeing them.

I don't follow the news much these days, but based on what I hear from the people who are important to me--both Trump lovers and Trump haters--I see a real lack of the kind of thoughtfulness and deliberation that come from significant intelligence. I see a guy who wants to keep on shooting from the hip when the game has changed from quick draw dueling to 1,000 yard marksmanship or a grueling 3-gun match.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by LC475 » Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:28 pm

Pointedstick wrote:Trump is definitely cunning, and his intuition is incredible. These are both "shoot from the hip" type traits, and Trump is nothing if not spontaneous in taking advantage of currents and forces that are just under the surface that nobody else notices, talks about, or knows what to do with. It works because nobody else in D.C. does this, not even the people who pretend to. But it has its limits if that's the only style of gunslinging you know, and I think we're seeing them.

I don't follow the news much these days, but based on what I hear from the people who are important to me--both Trump lovers and Trump haters--I see a real lack of the kind of thoughtfulness and deliberation that come from significant intelligence. I see a guy who wants to keep on shooting from the hip when the game has changed from quick draw dueling to 1,000 yard marksmanship or a grueling 3-gun match.
That is certainly another possible story. As I see it, we really don't know what the real story is, at least I don't, and won't until the eight years is done.

In the end all that matters is results, and on that front there has been very little so far. If at the end of eight years there's still so little -- if, say, the wall still isn't built! -- then sure, he was a failure and a flop. But if he's managed to wrest back some power for the elected officials and do some good things to bring back some sanity to a dysfunctional system, then, well, that's great!

I like Trump. I like Trump a lot. The fact that I think there is any chance whatsoever of him doing anything good is a big change from all the Presidents the whole rest of my life. I believe he really does care about America. He wants to save the country. It may be too late to save. I do not agree with all of his ideas to save it. He is not ideological, he's practical (which may be a good thing). But at least he (says that he) sees some of the same problems I do and (said that he) is going to try to solve them.

So, incompetent charlatan, or hero fighting astronomical odds? Results will in the end tell us which story was true.

I want to echo someone else in this thread too, PointedStick, in that I do love to read the workings of your mind.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by vnatale » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:07 pm

Desert wrote:
Thu Mar 03, 2016 5:48 pm
Pointedstick wrote:
Desert wrote: The thing that does bother me is that the "solution" that the angry horde has chosen will likely cause a lot of harm to this country.  It's not hard to break things, to tear things down.  Like the wise man Colin Powell said to W before he went into Iraq, "If you break it, you own it."  Unfortunately, that's not exactly true, because now W doesn't own it, the American and Iraqi people own it.  Similarly, after Trump augers in (sooner or later), it won't be him that has to foot the cost, it will be Americans, including those of us who have done our best to point out the painfully obvious problems with this candidate.
I'm curious… what specifically do you fear that Trump is going to do to harm the country? Specifics, please.
Here are a few:
1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring. 
This post by Desert contains the highest percentage (by far) of correct predictions from any of these posts I've been reading from years ago....

Vinny
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:12 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:07 pm
Desert wrote:
Thu Mar 03, 2016 5:48 pm
Pointedstick wrote:
Desert wrote: The thing that does bother me is that the "solution" that the angry horde has chosen will likely cause a lot of harm to this country.  It's not hard to break things, to tear things down.  Like the wise man Colin Powell said to W before he went into Iraq, "If you break it, you own it."  Unfortunately, that's not exactly true, because now W doesn't own it, the American and Iraqi people own it.  Similarly, after Trump augers in (sooner or later), it won't be him that has to foot the cost, it will be Americans, including those of us who have done our best to point out the painfully obvious problems with this candidate.
I'm curious… what specifically do you fear that Trump is going to do to harm the country? Specifics, please.
Here are a few:
1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring. 
This post by Desert contains the highest percentage (by far) of correct predictions from any of these posts I've been reading from years ago....

Vinny
Holy crap -- we've got an oracle in our midst! :o
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by vnatale » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:22 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:12 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:07 pm
Desert wrote:
Thu Mar 03, 2016 5:48 pm
Pointedstick wrote:
Desert wrote: The thing that does bother me is that the "solution" that the angry horde has chosen will likely cause a lot of harm to this country.  It's not hard to break things, to tear things down.  Like the wise man Colin Powell said to W before he went into Iraq, "If you break it, you own it."  Unfortunately, that's not exactly true, because now W doesn't own it, the American and Iraqi people own it.  Similarly, after Trump augers in (sooner or later), it won't be him that has to foot the cost, it will be Americans, including those of us who have done our best to point out the painfully obvious problems with this candidate.
I'm curious… what specifically do you fear that Trump is going to do to harm the country? Specifics, please.
Here are a few:
1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring. 
This post by Desert contains the highest percentage (by far) of correct predictions from any of these posts I've been reading from years ago....

Vinny
Holy crap -- we've got an oracle in our midst! :o
If you roll back to the prior page in this Topic you can read Pointedstick (who initiated this Topic) start off a post with this...

"Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post
by Pointedstick » Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:36 pm
Checking in a year later... how did I do!?

The Democratic party is definitely doubling down on cosmopolitanism. But I don't see many of the changes to the Republican party that I predicted. Trump himself has turned out to be much more incompetent and immature than I thought, and has been unable kick out the neocons and Heritage Foundation types. He's delegated his legislative agenda to establishment figure Paul Ryan and moved to a more conventional directionless Wilsonian foreign policy."

Seems like he was self-declaring himself to NOT be an oracle!

Vinny

Vinny
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:40 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:07 pm
1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring. 
This post by Desert contains the highest percentage (by far) of correct predictions from any of these posts I've been reading from years ago....

Vinny
Which of those are you counting as correct?
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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vnatale
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by vnatale » Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:05 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:40 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:07 pm
1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring. 
This post by Desert contains the highest percentage (by far) of correct predictions from any of these posts I've been reading from years ago....

Vinny
Which of those are you counting as correct?
Going in order...

First list

1. Partly right -
3. Almost completely correct
6. Fairly correct
7. Correct

Second list

1. 100% correct
2. Mostly correct
3. 100% correct


Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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