2017 PP Return Poll

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

Moderator: Global Moderator

How did your PP do for 2017? (poll)

1) Negative return
1
3%
2) 0-3%
3
9%
3) 3-6%
3
9%
4) 6-9%
2
6%
5) 9-12%
14
42%
6) 12%+
10
30%
 
Total votes: 33
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:59 pm

Yes, it's a little early, but close enough unless the next two days are nuts.

I include dividends in my results.
User avatar
blue_ruin17
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 153
Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2016 11:16 pm
Location: New Brunswick, Canada

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by blue_ruin17 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:17 am

3.7% YTD up here in Canada. Not thrilling, hair-on-fire returns, but I never worried once about my portfolio this year... just happily averaged in at the end of each month. Protection of principle and peace of mind is the name of the game, for me.
STAT PERPETUS PORTFOLIO DUM VOLVITUR ORBIS

Amazon: Investing Equanimity: The Logic & Wisdom of the Permanent Portfolio
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:05 pm

9-12% for me, 22% PP + VP with 50% in INT. VWILX (VG actively managed fund accountable for 44% gain YTD). Seems its top holdings are Tencent and Alibaba...

Couldn’t ask for anything more out of the PP as Gold and Treasuries performed well too. PP performance on-par with a 60/40 or 50/50 Boglehead portfolio.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:12 pm

A touch under 12% for me; I started the year at about 17% cash which probably juiced my returns a bit. Were all you 12%+ people at 15% cash, or in some other country or something?
Euro-PP
Junior Member
Junior Member
Posts: 2
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:18 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Euro-PP » Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:58 pm

My results for the Dutch/European PP (in Euro currency):

Stocks: +12.5% (MSCI Europe Ex-UK)
Cash: 0.8%
Gold: -1.7%
Bonds: -4.1% (2.75% NL 2047)

Normal 25% average weight: 1.9%

My results are slightly better because I had different allocations this year: 25% stocks, 20% gold, 15% bonds, 40% cash, resulted in 2.5%.

After inflation just a minimal real return of about 1% this year unfortunately...
User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 4392
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Xan » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:13 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:A touch under 12% for me; I started the year at about 17% cash which probably juiced my returns a bit. Were all you 12%+ people at 15% cash, or in some other country or something?
In addition to varying by country, people's individual starting points (15/35/25/25 vs 25/25/35/15, for example) could make a difference in their annual performance. As could the timing and amount of contributions.
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:27 pm

4x25 HBPP @ peaktotrough returned 8.57 (dividends not reinvested).

Individual component returns

SPY - 16.60
Gold - 9.99
LTT - 7.27
STT - 0.43
barrett
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1982
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:54 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by barrett » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:50 pm

buddtholomew wrote:4x25 HBPP @ peaktotrough returned 8.57 (dividends not reinvested).

Individual component returns

SPY - 16.60
Gold - 9.99
LTT - 7.27
STT - 0.43
The gold and stock data hasn't been updating on peaktotrough.com for the last two months. portfoliovisualizer.com shows a total return of 9.35% and a real return of 7.03%. Of course that wouldn't yet include today's data.
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:52 pm

You’re right I should have noticed.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:02 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:A touch under 12% for me; I started the year at about 17% cash which probably juiced my returns a bit. Were all you 12%+ people at 15% cash, or in some other country or something?
I will end the year at:

35.56% Stocks (5% VBR, 25% VTI/related, 5% Emerging mkt VINEX)
24.55% LT Bonds (TLT)
29.37% Gold+Silver (25% gold, 5% silver)
10.53% Cash (target 10%)
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:13 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Kriegsspiel wrote:A touch under 12% for me; I started the year at about 17% cash which probably juiced my returns a bit. Were all you 12%+ people at 15% cash, or in some other country or something?
I will end the year at:

35.56% Stocks (5% VBR, 25% VTI/related, 5% Emerging mkt VINEX)
24.55% LT Bonds (TLT)
29.37% Gold+Silver (25% gold, 5% silver)
10.53% Cash (target 10%)
Ahh, I see, I was confused by the thread title and just voted for my PP numbers. ;D
farjean2
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 284
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:51 am

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by farjean2 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:32 pm

This is my second year using the Golden Butterfly variant. I would give you the exact figure but since they discontinued Google Finance I would actually have to do some work to figure it out. Last I checked it was doing quite well and as far as I recall Gold was still the surprising winner of the asset classes. With the stock run-up of late that might not be true at the end of the year but I still think it did well.
User avatar
Ugly_Bird
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 230
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:06 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Ugly_Bird » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:46 pm

Cortopassi wrote:Yes, it's a little early.
Assuming it will not change drastically on 29th, my classical 4x25 HBPP is 10.4% YTD.
User avatar
drumminj
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 319
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:16 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by drumminj » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:01 pm

10.4% here, but I continued averaging into the PP this year. Increased my allocation to PP by about 15%, mostly by buying the lagging investment.

Ending the year at:

Gold: 22%
Stock: 27.5%
Cash/STT: 25.4%
LTT: 25%

Have to say I'm happy with the overall performance :)
User avatar
eufo
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 243
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:17 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by eufo » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:08 pm

Before I answer this, it becomes a bit confusing for me to break down my gains since I'm constantly throwing money into my accounts.

My finance software offers up ROI and IRR for possible metrics. For this year, ROI is around 7% while IRR is around 13%. Even after reading up on these, I'm not following which is actually a better measurement of performance.

Any opinions out there?
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:14 pm

eufo wrote:Before I answer this, it becomes a bit confusing for me to break down my gains since I'm constantly throwing money into my accounts.

My finance software offers up ROI and IRR for possible metrics. For this year, ROI is around 7% while IRR is around 13%. Even after reading up on these, I'm not following which is actually a better measurement of performance.

Any opinions out there?
Why the latter off course ;)
User avatar
eufo
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 243
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:17 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by eufo » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:26 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
eufo wrote:Before I answer this, it becomes a bit confusing for me to break down my gains since I'm constantly throwing money into my accounts.

My finance software offers up ROI and IRR for possible metrics. For this year, ROI is around 7% while IRR is around 13%. Even after reading up on these, I'm not following which is actually a better measurement of performance.

Any opinions out there?
Why the latter off course ;)
Obviously that's what I WANT to hear! Lol!
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:16 am

Approximate composition of my portfolio:

53% gold
35% Swiss francs
10% cash

2017 return: just about 10%.
Kbg
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2815
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 4:18 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Kbg » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:32 am

My returns YTD are posted in the Variable Portfolio 20% returns thread.
User avatar
MWKXJ
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 126
Joined: Fri Jun 15, 2012 4:33 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by MWKXJ » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:15 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:Approximate composition of my portfolio:

53% gold
35% Swiss francs
10% cash

2017 return: just about 10%.
I'm curious about the portfolio, Tech: How are you buying your Swiss francs? ETF? How long have you kept this portfolio? Is this a recent thing?

Sorry, haven't been keeping up here much in 2017. I can say I've paid off the mortgage early courtesy of bitcoin. Great feeling.
Don
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 286
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:21 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Don » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:14 pm

Gold: 22%
Stock: 27.5%
Cash/STT: 25.4%
LTT: 25%

That's an excellent return!
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:55 pm

MWKXJ wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:Approximate composition of my portfolio:

53% gold
35% Swiss francs
10% cash

2017 return: just about 10%.
I'm curious about the portfolio, Tech: How are you buying your Swiss francs? ETF? How long have you kept this portfolio? Is this a recent thing?

Sorry, haven't been keeping up here much in 2017. I can say I've paid off the mortgage early courtesy of bitcoin. Great feeling.
I'm also a member of the 2017 mortgage-free club, and yes, it is a great feeling!

The Swiss francs are in Swiss annuities, which unfortunately are no longer available to non-Swiss persons, especially US persons, thanks to the never-to-be-sufficiently-damned FATCA. >:(

One is a gift from my mother and the other I bought in 2007.

They are paying somewhere around 2%, which is pretty good for Swiss francs. However I'm going to surrender them, due to the aforementioned FATCA monstrosity, which has made it impossible for me to make the changes I was planning to make to suit my situation.
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by sophie » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:59 pm

12.6% return YTD, with my PP currently at:

28.5% cash
25.5% stocks
23.6% gold
22.4% bonds

Not at all shabby! I think my extra little bit of return came from a higher stock allocation with some help from I Bonds and autorolled T bills. I was close to 30% stocks, but then I "donated" some fund shares earlier in the month to a Fidelity DAF. When I get my tax refund I'll put it right back into the PP.
User avatar
drumminj
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 319
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:16 pm

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by drumminj » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:09 pm

Don wrote:Gold: 22%
Stock: 27.5%
Cash/STT: 25.4%
LTT: 25%

That's an excellent return!
Those #s are my ending allocation, not return ;)
Mr Vacuum
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 164
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:51 am

Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Mr Vacuum » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:02 am

Surprisingly my Google Finance paper portfolio is still working, despite the shutdown announced for mid November. Here is the pure 4x25 starting January 1, 2016, dividends not reinvested, showing a 10.3% return. The stocks portion is IYY. Ignore the overall return column, as I believe it is price gains only and does not include dividends.

Image

Image
Post Reply