All Treasury Portfolio
Moderator: Global Moderator
-
- Full Member
- Posts: 83
- Joined: Sat Sep 10, 2016 1:50 pm
All Treasury Portfolio
I would like to get the advice of people on this board as I respect your opinions and viewpoints immensely. I am turning 50 this year and have about 15 years until retirement (I hope). So what would be the drawbacks of an all-Treasury portfolio?
If the purpose of the PP is to protect against various economic cycles, couldn't I replicate that with a Treasury portfolio? I-Bonds and TIPS for inflation protection. EE bonds or 10 year Treasuries for deflation. Short Term Treasuries for cash. Really the only thing I would not be protected against would be a catastrophic government default or similar. Otherwise the "sleep at night factor" should be awesome with this portfolio, although obviously the return would be much lower than a standard PP. Ultimately though I feel like I would still be protected in most economic scenarios with very limited risk or downside. Opinions?
If the purpose of the PP is to protect against various economic cycles, couldn't I replicate that with a Treasury portfolio? I-Bonds and TIPS for inflation protection. EE bonds or 10 year Treasuries for deflation. Short Term Treasuries for cash. Really the only thing I would not be protected against would be a catastrophic government default or similar. Otherwise the "sleep at night factor" should be awesome with this portfolio, although obviously the return would be much lower than a standard PP. Ultimately though I feel like I would still be protected in most economic scenarios with very limited risk or downside. Opinions?
Re: All Treasury Portfolio
Pursuant to the default idea... I have decided not to buy Treasuries much further out than my retirement date. I retire in 8 years. I could accept buying a ladder from 8 - 12 years out, centered around 10. I'm not sure I trust the government beyond that, and there's no point. The 10-30 yield curve is flat as a pancake.
I need to fund a Social Security replacement, since I'm going to claim benefits at 70., that's why it makes sense to have those bonds turning into cash 8 - 12 years from now.
Re: All Treasury Portfolio
I intend to see how the position of the US government evolves over time and plan accordingly.
Re: All Treasury Portfolio
Don't underestimate the risk of an all bond portfolio. Rising rates or severe inflation will crush you. I wouldn't trust TIPs to save you from inflation.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
Re: All Treasury Portfolio
Agreed. I think I-Bonds are ok, there is no interest rate risk, if the interest rate for your set of bonds is no good, just redeem them.
Got to have a little gold a little bit of equities. If only 10-15% each.
Re: All Treasury Portfolio
Or as Bernstein says, not less than 25% in both stocks and bonds.
Re: All Treasury Portfolio
I think a 15/15/70 portfolio would be much safer.
15% stocks / 15% gold / 70% bond ladder.
15% stocks / 15% gold / 70% bond ladder.
Re: All Treasury Portfolio
Excellent findingDesert wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:02 am Historically, the efficient frontier (point of minimum volatility) has been around 20 percent stock.
https://primecapitalequities.com/philos ... t-frontier
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14304
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: All Treasury Portfolio
What happened to PRTBX, the all-treasury fund from the people who brought you PRPFX? It's all treasurys and all-short term for the low, low price of 0.7%
Looks like it hasn't paid anything for a while, which is weird for an income fund. Closed?
http://www.permanentportfoliofunds.com/ ... folio.html
Looks like it hasn't paid anything for a while, which is weird for an income fund. Closed?
http://www.permanentportfoliofunds.com/ ... folio.html
Re: All Treasury Portfolio
According to MStar it's still kicking and has the highly coveted 1 star rating.
Re: All Treasury Portfolio
Damn! With an expense ratio of .72% this one is a money loser for the actual investor. Here's the Morningstar link:dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:25 pm What happened to PRTBX, the all-treasury fund from the people who brought you PRPFX? It's all treasurys and all-short term for the low, low price of 0.7%
Looks like it hasn't paid anything for a while, which is weird for an income fund. Closed?
http://www.permanentportfoliofunds.com/ ... folio.html
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/PRTBX/quote.html
It sports a total loss of 3% over ten years and I'm pretty sure it's quite a bit worse in real terms.
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14304
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: All Treasury Portfolio
Maybe their selling point should be, “Look, you’re going to lose money on this, but it’ll be a steady, safe loss with minimal volatility.”