OMG Credit Suisse just came out with a 3350 call for SP500 by end of 2019! Sounds like fun, but when this binch rolls over it will not be fun. Hussman is gonna have a stroke. Gartman, too.
Stock scream room
Moderator: Global Moderator
Re: Stock scream room
Re: Stock scream room
CNBC - Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio may be warning about the economy, but Wall Street bull Jeff Saut isn't changing his thesis.
March 2019 will mark the 10th year of this bull market, and "We ought to have another seven to eight years left," he said.
March 2019 will mark the 10th year of this bull market, and "We ought to have another seven to eight years left," he said.
Re: Stock scream room
We ought to have peace and prosperity in perpetuity.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14235
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
Market crash or another 7 years of prosperity? It’s all too stressful to think about. I need to calm down with some chamomile tea and Serena Williams news items.
RIP Daniel Kahneman | Happy Good Friday
Re: Stock scream room
Charles Nenner has stopped screaming about Dow 5,000. Listening to "Market Wrap" by Moe Ansari podcast. He does see dis-inflation / deflation coming back. Bond rally.
Oh wait... now he says "a huge bear market continuing into 2021". Moe is feigning genuine curiosity as he asks Nenner. He invites Nenner on for some extra color.
Oh, and gold $2500, but it could touch $1050 first.
He likes gold and bonds.
Oh wait... now he says "a huge bear market continuing into 2021". Moe is feigning genuine curiosity as he asks Nenner. He invites Nenner on for some extra color.
Oh, and gold $2500, but it could touch $1050 first.
He likes gold and bonds.
- buddtholomew
- Executive Member
- Posts: 2464
- Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm
Re: Stock scream room
Nenner’s notes should go back into the drawer...hahah; love Moe on the other hand...”Hopium”ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:33 pmCharles Nenner has stopped screaming about Dow 5,000. Listening to "Market Wrap" by Moe Ansari podcast. He does see dis-inflation / deflation coming back. Bond rally.
Oh wait... now he says "a huge bear market continuing into 2021". Moe is feigning genuine curiosity as he asks Nenner. He invites Nenner on for some extra color.
Oh, and gold $2500, but it could touch $1050 first.
He likes gold and bonds.
Re: Stock scream room
Professor Shiller predicting 2.6% annual forward return on US stocks for next decade.
Re: Stock scream room
Perfect indication to buy more stocks!!!!
Ochotona you seriously need to read Harry Browne's book, How the Best-Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong. He does a very thorough debunking of virtually all prediction strategies. By the time you're done with it, you'll just laugh at stuff like this.
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14235
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
What Sophie said.
Also, wasn’t Shiller far more positive a short while ago? Maybe a year ago, two at most.
He stressed that he wasn’t making a prediction, but he was quite optimistic.
Also, wasn’t Shiller far more positive a short while ago? Maybe a year ago, two at most.
He stressed that he wasn’t making a prediction, but he was quite optimistic.
RIP Daniel Kahneman | Happy Good Friday
Re: Stock scream room
Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
- buddtholomew
- Executive Member
- Posts: 2464
- Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm
Re: Stock scream room
I think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...Kbg wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pmFundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.
Re: Stock scream room
BuddT,buddtholomew wrote: ↑Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:08 pmI think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...Kbg wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pmFundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.
That’s not how these predictions work. In 2023, we check and see what the average annualized return was over the period from when the prediction was made.
Re: Stock scream room
These decadal market return predictions are like climate, shorter durations are like weather. The climate can be warming or cooling, but you can still have cold and hot days which does not disprove the long-term trends of climate warming or cooling.
- buddtholomew
- Executive Member
- Posts: 2464
- Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm
Re: Stock scream room
He wasn’t looking forward 10 years.Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:31 amBuddT,buddtholomew wrote: ↑Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:08 pmI think Bogle was quoted as saying “lower than average” stock returns going forward...only problem is that prediction was made circa 2013 and we all know how that’s turned out...Kbg wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pmFundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
There’s no reason to expect higher or lower stock returns over the next decade. The end. Close book and start a new one.
That’s not how these predictions work. In 2023, we check and see what the average annualized return was over the period from when the prediction was made.
The point is they don’t work!
Re: Stock scream room
Charles Schwab Client Cash Hits All Time Low As Retail Investors Flood The Market
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14235
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
I saw something similar but it was in the wsj and I didn’t want to annoy Pug.
![Afro O0](./images/smilies/afro.gif)
RIP Daniel Kahneman | Happy Good Friday
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14235
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
You’re the spokesperson for the silent majority.
RIP Daniel Kahneman | Happy Good Friday
Re: Stock scream room
Amazing no screaming here. I guess everyone was expecting some declines eventually.
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14235
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
- Cortopassi
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
- Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html
Re: Stock scream room
Here comes the snapback. Let's see if it goes until the close.
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14235
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
Lost and RegainedCortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:00 amHere comes the snapback. Let's see if it goes until the close.
RIP Daniel Kahneman | Happy Good Friday
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14235
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
#markettiming
What do you all think about trimming VP stocks after the midterm elections?
What do you all think about trimming VP stocks after the midterm elections?
RIP Daniel Kahneman | Happy Good Friday