What's going on with silver?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:06 pm

Physical silver is a costly trade. My 100 oz bar is a fetish object. I'm only buying one. Agree on SLV.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:18 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:04 pm
ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am
gold silver ratio getting close to 90 again
It's been asked before- does the ratio mean anything?

I don't suppose there's a place out there where one can trade silver for gold and vice versa, with less friction?
Harry Brown didn't think the ratio meant anything.
I agree with him.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by pmward » Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:50 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:18 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:04 pm
ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am
gold silver ratio getting close to 90 again
It's been asked before- does the ratio mean anything?

I don't suppose there's a place out there where one can trade silver for gold and vice versa, with less friction?
Harry Brown didn't think the ratio meant anything.
I agree with him.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the more industrialized of a commodity it becomes, the more divorced it becomes from gold, and the more record gold to silver ratio spreads we hit. I think that silver is apt to correlate more with the likes of platinum, palladium, and the other industrial metals vs gold these days. It's actually easier for me to assume that the record spread is because of the fundamental shift in the silver markets over the last couple decades vs thinking this arbitrary indication means that it's cheap and going to perform well. Gold has taken off and silver is still languishing. I see no fundamental reason why this has to change, or even why it should change. Should silver start to break out it might be worth making a short term tactical momentum play in the VP. But I think that allocating the gold portion of the PP itself away from gold to silver, especially the entire lot, just seems silly and completely breaks the point. Browne specifically chose gold because it is a monetary metal and not an industrial metal.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Aug 03, 2019 6:03 pm

pmward wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:50 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:18 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:04 pm


It's been asked before- does the ratio mean anything?

I don't suppose there's a place out there where one can trade silver for gold and vice versa, with less friction?
Harry Brown didn't think the ratio meant anything.
I agree with him.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the more industrialized of a commodity it becomes, the more divorced it becomes from gold, and the more record gold to silver ratio spreads we hit. I think that silver is apt to correlate more with the likes of platinum, palladium, and the other industrial metals vs gold these days. It's actually easier for me to assume that the record spread is because of the fundamental shift in the silver markets over the last couple decades vs thinking this arbitrary indication means that it's cheap and going to perform well. Gold has taken off and silver is still languishing. I see no fundamental reason why this has to change, or even why it should change. Should silver start to break out it might be worth making a short term tactical momentum play in the VP. But I think that allocating the gold portion of the PP itself away from gold to silver, especially the entire lot, just seems silly and completely breaks the point. Browne specifically chose gold because it is a monetary metal and not an industrial metal.
Yep.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:04 pm

Image
User avatar
Mike59
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 87
Joined: Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:07 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Mike59 » Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:28 am

In my experience precious metals trading is best done by relative valuation compared to a long term mean. I use a 50 month SMA. As it stands silver is on my watch list and I would say it's neutral (close to it's 50 month SMA), I've been loading up on Platinum in the last year in my VP and I see much more upside there.

Having said that, my PP gold allocation has outperformed the other VP holdings big time and I'm thankful that of my total investments VP is only about 10%, it is gambling at the end of the day. These other metals will have their day in the sun, likely further along in gold's bull market when enthusiasm spills over into all the other metals.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:32 am

Silver has breached $18.00 oz.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14228
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:47 pm

Two detectorists in England found enough Norman silver coins to give Ad O a treasure bath -

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-49487078
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:40 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:47 pm
Two detectorists in England found enough Norman silver coins to give Ad O a treasure bath -

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-49487078
That's cool as shit, coins with William the Conqueror and King Harold.

This part is a big downer though:
Under the Treasure Act 1996, finders of potential treasure in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are legally obliged to notify their local coroner
An inquest then determines whether the finds constitute treasure
The act contains a number of definitions of "treasure", including prehistoric objects, coins that contain gold or silver and are at least 300 years old, or more recent valuable objects that have been deliberately hidden
If the find is declared treasure, the finder must offer it for sale to a museum at a price set by the British Museum's Treasure Valuation Committee
Hmm, I wonder what they think a fair price is?
If the hoard is officially declared as treasure, the Roman Baths in Bath hopes to acquire the coins.

Stephen Clews, from the Roman Baths, said: "If you look at the true value of this, it's about 500 sheep - that's what you would have been to able to buy with them about 1,000 years ago.

"So what we need to do is translate that into some sort of modern value."
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14228
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:12 pm

btw, as you can guess, coroner does not mean over there what it means in the U.S. I learned that watching the hilarious and charming British show, ‘Detectorists.’
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:26 pm

Wow. Silver blew right past $19 oz. And fwiw, silver is decoupling from gold. It won't last of course. But recently silver has been going up pretty much regardless of what gold has been doing. It took a while but I think some of the big boys have figured out that silver is still somewhat cheap relative to gold. That said, the silver gold price ratio has dropped below 80:1 for the first time since I started buying a little over a year ago. While I still think there could be more upside, I am not buying anymore. Below 80:1 silver is a hold in my book.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:47 pm

I sold my small SIVR position today, it was up 25% in a very short period of time. It was in my HSA, when it moves over to Fidelity, I will be buying IAU...or maybe rebuying SIVR if it is below where I sold it. But I'm keeping the 100 oz bar.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:29 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:47 pm
I sold my small SIVR position today, it was up 25% in a very short period of time. It was in my HSA, when it moves over to Fidelity, I will be buying IAU...or maybe rebuying SIVR if it is below where I sold it. But I'm keeping the 100 oz bar.
Wow. You timed that well.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:31 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:29 am
ochotona wrote:
Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:47 pm
I sold my small SIVR position today, it was up 25% in a very short period of time. It was in my HSA, when it moves over to Fidelity, I will be buying IAU...or maybe rebuying SIVR if it is below where I sold it. But I'm keeping the 100 oz bar.
Wow. You timed that well.
I think this belongs in the "what have we learned over the past ten years thread" - Nothing goes up in a straight line. You simply have to sell or partially sell geometric moves up.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:58 pm

The last 48 hrs... Looks like someone beat the snot out of silver with the ugly stick.

I need to turn off the TV and computer, and go find a good book to read.
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3503
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:58 pm

Excellent. I was hoping for an opportunity to add to my physical collection today. ;)
🛞 The All-Terrain Portfolio 🛞
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14228
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:00 pm

I have a Queen's Beasts silver coin from a year ago that's already starting to tarnish on the edges. I use cotton gloves now, but I think I'm done buying silver, except that which I'll give away.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3503
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:08 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:00 pm
I have a Queen's Beasts silver coin from a year ago that's already starting to tarnish on the edges. I use cotton gloves now, but I think I'm done buying silver, except that which I'll give away.
The tarnishing is an absolute pain.

The bullion dealer I favour gives out these free little plastic sleeves that fit quite tight around the surfaces of the coins... that has seemed to help some.

I've got to say though: I'm sure you'll agree that seeing literal stacks of silver on the desk is mighty satisfying.
🛞 The All-Terrain Portfolio 🛞
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14228
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:40 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:08 pm
...
I've got to say though: I'm sure you'll agree that seeing literal stacks of silver on the desk is mighty satisfying.
I don’t know, because I’ve never stacked them on my desk. O0 I don’t have any silver larger than a coin, and I only have about 30 coins.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:21 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:08 pm

I've got to say though: I'm sure you'll agree that seeing literal stacks of silver on the desk is mighty satisfying.

Image

Damn. Now I want to buy more.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:25 am

Nothing beats the 100 oz bar. It has amazing fondle characteristics. If we get a good price dip, think about getting one. The premium over spot is lower.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:27 am

You guys made me go look at some silver. Like ocho implied, the premium is definitely higher than gold, about double. They look cool though.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by Ad Orientem » Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:23 pm

ochotona wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:25 am
Nothing beats the 100 oz bar. It has amazing fondle characteristics. If we get a good price dip, think about getting one. The premium over spot is lower.

I have a friend who let me hold one of his and I suddenly understood the look in his eyes suggestive of animal lust.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by ochotona » Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:50 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:23 pm
ochotona wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:25 am
Nothing beats the 100 oz bar. It has amazing fondle characteristics. If we get a good price dip, think about getting one. The premium over spot is lower.

I have a friend who let me hold one of his and I suddenly understood the look in his eyes suggestive of animal lust.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14228
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: What's going on with silver?

Post by dualstow » Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:42 pm

We're still talking about silver here, right guys? ???


O0
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
Post Reply