Coronavirus General Discussion

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mountaineer » Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:34 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:31 am
dualstow wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:18 am
Well, three out of the three times I tried to switch on NPR today and yesterday, they were focusing on how in the U.S., African-Americans represent a disproportionately large % of the deaths from coronavirus. Not a surprise, because of diabetes stats, etc. But the way they talk about it, I feel like they want me to believe I'm racist and responsible for these deaths.
Now you're getting it ;D
I used to be a racist but I gave it up after almost crashing the car. ;D
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by stuper1 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:48 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:29 am
dualstow wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:18 am
Well, three out of the three times I tried to switch on NPR today and yesterday, they were focusing on how in the U.S., African-Americans represent a disproportionately large % of the deaths from coronavirus. Not a surprise, because of diabetes stats, etc. But the way they talk about it, I feel like they want me to believe I'm racist and responsible for these deaths.
I think it's safe to say that you are way further to the right than am I. I never listen to NPR. Does not appeal to me. What is its appeal to you? The only time I ever put on the NPR radio station is when they are broadcasting a live hearing.

Vinny
NPR used to have some good non-political cultural stuff, but in say the last 10 years it's become pretty much intolerable with its literal preaching of propaganda. I find it funny that many people who would never set foot in a church because they don't want to be preached to will not just tolerate, but gorge themselves on, the preaching that they are getting from NPR and other media these days. No longer can we go the media just to learn the news of the day. Now if we go to them, we are told how we are supposed to think.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:58 am

stuper1 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:48 am
vnatale wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:29 am
dualstow wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:18 am
Well, three out of the three times I tried to switch on NPR today and yesterday, they were focusing on how in the U.S., African-Americans represent a disproportionately large % of the deaths from coronavirus. Not a surprise, because of diabetes stats, etc. But the way they talk about it, I feel like they want me to believe I'm racist and responsible for these deaths.
I think it's safe to say that you are way further to the right than am I. I never listen to NPR. Does not appeal to me. What is its appeal to you? The only time I ever put on the NPR radio station is when they are broadcasting a live hearing.

Vinny
NPR used to have some good non-political cultural stuff, but in say the last 10 years it's become pretty much intolerable with its literal preaching of propaganda. I find it funny that many people who would never set foot in a church because they don't want to be preached to will not just tolerate, but gorge themselves on, the preaching that they are getting from NPR and other media these days. No longer can we go the media just to learn the news of the day. Now if we go to them, we are told how we are supposed to think.
Another reason why it has never appealed to me is because it is them who decides what news I get to hear and only what they broadcast.

Unlike getting the news from a newspaper from which you read the articles of interest and don't the ones that hold no interest. It'd be like the newspaper forcing you to read only the articles they present and in the order in which they present them.

Of course with the advent of the internet we have so many other avenues of news that listening to NPR seems quite anachronistic.

Vinny
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by shekels » Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:01 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:14 am
Maddy wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:09 am
I don't mean to belabor the point, but I'm really not understanding this position. If you take the entire CoVid critical care population and subtract out the people who are going to die regardless of whether they receive the best hospital care money can buy--then subtract out the very elderly and the comorbid population who were already train wrecks waiting to happen (an overwhelming percentage of whom are vulnerable because of longstanding lifestyle choices), you end up with a very tiny slice of the population. And we're shutting down the world economy for this, causing large swaths of the population to lose their jobs (many of them permanently) and destroying the small businesses people have built over a lifetime of hard work?
This is pretty much how I see it too. IMO people are thinking about this as a problem to solve, and not as a predicament (a problem without a solution). Tyler Cowen has said that America is a country that prioritizes its old people over the young, which seems like a valid heuristic to understanding why we're doing what we're doing.
Or maybe just a Buying Opportunity for Some Banking System.
Debt Peonage anyone.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:35 pm

Happier news: Tyler Perry paid for the groceries during senior hours at 44 Kroger grocery stores in and around Atlanta.

https://twitter.com/andrewrsorkin/statu ... 50914?s=20
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:01 pm

Maddy wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:09 am
WiseOne wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:10 am
Maddy wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:40 am
Epidemiologist: Flattening the curve makes no sense; CV-19 could be "exterminated" if lockdowns were lifted, the vulnerable protected, and the virus allowed to create herd immunity.

https://www.wnd.com/2020/04/epidemiolog ... ns-lifted/
That theory breaks down when you realize that hospitals would quickly get overwhelmed if you did that. Eventually that is what will have to happen, but the rate at which it happens has to be kept under control.

Unless you want to do something like ration ventilators/ICU beds based on age or other universally applied measure, which will surely create a lot of civil unrest and anger.
I don't mean to belabor the point, but I'm really not understanding this position. If you take the entire CoVid critical care population and subtract out the people who are going to die regardless of whether they receive the best hospital care money can buy--then subtract out the very elderly and the comorbid population who were already train wrecks waiting to happen (an overwhelming percentage of whom are vulnerable because of longstanding lifestyle choices), you end up with a very tiny slice of the population. And we're shutting down the world economy for this, causing large swaths of the population to lose their jobs (and the health insurance that goes along with them), destroying small business, decimating retirement accounts, devaluing peoples' life savings, risking collapse of the currency, and destroying what's left of the tax base that's needed to support all this heroicism?

Counterargument, please.
The only logical counterargument I can think of is that if even 1% of the population ends up in the hospital system it will be overrun so that people will die who would have otherwise survived.

Other than that, the arguments are emotional, not logical. That is a problem mostly because politics is largely emotional, and that in turn is because most people aren't very good at being logical in emotionally-laden situations.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:48 pm

Herd immunity: I’ll be curious to see how Sweden’s attempt plays out.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:19 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:01 pm
The only logical counterargument I can think of is that if even 1% of the population ends up in the hospital system it will be overrun so that people will die who would have otherwise survived.
Are the lives of a very small minority worth more than the livelihoods of the majority?

Are we properly accounting for the lives that may be destroyed or lost as a result of an economic recession or depression caused by an extended lockdown?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:07 pm

Here is a thoughtful podcast on the subject of the shutdown. The host is very libertarian, but regardless I think they had a fair discussion.

https://tomwoods.com/ep-1627-lockdowns- ... -approach/
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:04 pm

Keep pet cats indoors to limit spread of coronavirus, vets urge

https://nypost.com/2020/04/08/vets-say- ... SocialFlow
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:10 pm

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:26 pm

Outdoor activities require stricter social distancing, Belgian study suggests

https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/1 ... echnology/
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:27 pm

Those figures presuppose China has been on the level with their numbers. Nothing about that country or the history of its ruling party causes me to believe that.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:10 pm

Zoom is facing heat over privacy — here are 4 more secure alternatives


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zoom-pri ... 02965.html
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Maddy » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:35 am

Pre-print of journal article assessing the likely effect of CoVid-19-related job losses on health insurance coverage:
We estimated the likely effects of current job losses on the number of uninsured persons by using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's March 2019 Current Population Survey on health insurance coverage rates among persons who lost or left a job. The uninsurance rate among unemployed persons who had lost or left a job was 26.3% versus 10.7% among those with jobs. Applying the 15.6–percentage point difference to the 9.955 million who filed new unemployment claims last week, we estimate that 1.553 million newly unemployed persons will lose health coverage. This figure excludes family members who will become uninsured because a breadwinner lost coverage and self-employed persons who may lose coverage because their businesses were shuttered, but are ineligible for unemployment benefits. If, as the Federal Reserve economist projects, an additional 47.05 million people become unemployed, 7.3 million workers (along with several million family members) are likely to join the ranks of the U.S. uninsured population.
https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764 ... -insurance

A Shocking 17 Million Americans Have Filed For Unemployment In Past 3 Weeks
* * *
The three-week tally implies an unemployment rate of around 13% or 14%, surpassing the 10% peak reached in the wake of the last recession.
* * *
Put another way, we have lost 1132 jobs for every confirmed US death from COVID-19 (14,817).
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... st-3-weeks
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Dieter » Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:08 pm

Interesting chart, recently updated.

Wait for the animation to start.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualis ... HzJRf7f8Nk

[Edit: fixed typo of 'chat' to 'chart'. Added note about animation.]
Last edited by Dieter on Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:24 pm

Japan ::)
https://japantoday.com/category/picture ... -to-school
Dieter wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:08 pm
Interesting chat, recently updated.
https://public.flourish.studio/visualis ... HzJRf7f8Nk
EDIT:
Whoa! I almost left the page before it started animating. That is really something!
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:57 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:14 am
Maddy wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:09 am
I don't mean to belabor the point, but I'm really not understanding this position. If you take the entire CoVid critical care population and subtract out the people who are going to die regardless of whether they receive the best hospital care money can buy--then subtract out the very elderly and the comorbid population who were already train wrecks waiting to happen (an overwhelming percentage of whom are vulnerable because of longstanding lifestyle choices), you end up with a very tiny slice of the population. And we're shutting down the world economy for this, causing large swaths of the population to lose their jobs (many of them permanently) and destroying the small businesses people have built over a lifetime of hard work?
This is pretty much how I see it too. IMO people are thinking about this as a problem to solve, and not as a predicament (a problem without a solution). Tyler Cowen has said that America is a country that prioritizes its old people over the young, which seems like a valid heuristic to understanding why we're doing what we're doing.
I can see where you guys are coming from, but part of me says that such a sacrifice wouldn't do our humanity any favors. I do wish that along with modeling the spread of coronavirus, the health and quality of life effects of mass unemployment could also be modeled so that governors would have a more complete picture of the facts to weigh in making their decisions. I think they're betting on a rapid restart when the brakes come off, along with federal dollars providing a bridge. Not sure on what exactly that bet is based on though.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:13 pm

Just read this today in my today's local newspaper:

https://www.recorder.com/my-turn-witty- ... s-33704790

Seeking more reliable information about pandemic

Tip of a Pen Mike Watson Images
Previous
Next
By RICHARD WITTY
Published: 4/9/2020 8:44:50 AM
Modified: 4/9/2020 8:44:38 AM
Good decisions start with good information, good data. Personal decisions. Business decisions. Governmental decisions.

One of the most upsetting aspects of the coronavirus pandemic is how unreliable the information about the pandemic has been. That includes national, state and local; from case management databases, from government, from press.

At the source, the data that is available is reported tested cases. But a minority of those with symptoms are requested to get tested. A quarter of negative results are false negatives. And, in most cases, symptoms don’t appear for a week.

Public health analysts apply a rule of thumb that the actual number of infected are at least five times the number reported.




TOP ARTICLES
1/5
READ MORE
Franklin County residents attest to
struggles of remote work without broadband

Further, active cases is the relevant number to asses, not reported cases. Active cases are the total reported cases minus deaths and minus recoveries (which are unavailable publicly).

We don’t know.

Since Friday, April 3, the reported number of cases went from 25 in the morning, to 46 on Friday afternoon, to 61 Tuesday morning. That is a 25% daily growth rate.

If 25% is not the actual growth rate, what is? And what can the town government do with that information?

One in 383 Greenfield residents are currently reported to be infected at some stage (18,000/47 or 61 total reported cases less 14 deaths). One in 77 Greenfield residents are actually likely to be infected (18,000/235).

The average daily growth rate for reported cases in Massachusetts is 10.7% as of Tuesday. That is doubling every 6.8 days. If Greenfield was experiencing that rate, then in two weeks, there will be 127 reported cases, 189 in three weeks, 280 in four, including projected recoveries. If the actual number of infections is five times what is reported, then in four weeks 1/13th of the population of Greenfield would be infected.

Is the growth rate in Greenfield more or less than the state average?

What levels of restriction reduce the growth rate? That’s unknown precisely. We can’t confidently predict, so we must respond to what occurs, with delayed information, driving via the rear-view mirror. It is what it is.

There are six levels of possible restriction:

No limits.

Shopping with no limits per store, but sufficient to voluntarily maintain a 6-foot distance.

Shopping with mandatory limits to maximum per store at any one time based on square footage (1 per 200 square feet including employees).

No stores open, only delivery or curbside pickup.

No leaving the house.

No leaving one’s room.

Neither the federal nor state governments have provided sufficient guidance as to best practices of criteria for the levels of restriction.

South Korea is a model of a country successfully reducing infections to the point that they can return to normal activity. They have 4.000 active cases of 51 million residents. That is 1 for every 13.000 residents.

In Greenfield, we might use than 1 in 5.000 residents as a target to have no limitations. (That would be < 4 reported active cases in Greenfield.)

Less than 1 in 1,800 to allow option 2 (< 10 active cases).

Less than 1 in 600 to allow option 3 (< 30 active cases).

Less than 1 in 200 to allow option 4 (< 90 active cases).

Otherwise option 5.

Currently, Greenfield essential retailers operate on the basis of assumption 2, a voluntary 6-foot distance between customers in the store.

By my math, at 47 active cases, Greenfield should be at option 4, no stores open to the public, and served only by delivery or curbside pickup. If that is politically impossible, then the city should adopt the mandatory limit of one person per 200 square feet as a precaution, even if it is a compromise towards realizing reduction in active cases.

These restrictions, including some enforcement mechanism, should be enacted immediately.

When the number reported of active non-hospitalized cases is less than four cases (theoretically possible in seven weeks), then Greenfield commercial life could return to prior normal.

The metaphor for contagion is a snowball rolling downhill, constantly increasing its speed, until the slope changes, flattens.

Richard Witty is a longtime Greenfield resident, retired CPA and not-for-profit finance executive.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:17 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:57 pm
I can see where you guys are coming from, but part of me says that such a sacrifice wouldn't do our humanity any favors. I do wish that along with modeling the spread of coronavirus, the health and quality of life effects of mass unemployment could also be modeled so that governors would have a more complete picture of the facts to weigh in making their decisions. I think they're betting on a rapid restart when the brakes come off, along with federal dollars providing a bridge. Not sure on what exactly that bet is based on though.
I share a similar sentiment.

Throughout this pandemic, my mind has frequently gone to that scene in The Big Short where Ben Rickert says
If we're right, people lose homes. People lose jobs. People lose retirement savings, people lose pensions. You know what I hate about f***ing banking? It reduces people to numbers. Here's a number - every 1% unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die, did you know that?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:24 pm

And Ackman will profit off of it?

(The Hammer and the Dance essay, 20 days ago, and touted by Ackman
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56 )
Last edited by dualstow on Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:24 pm

The stock market's current valuation look's extremely rosy relative to what seems to be the consensus outlook for the economy.


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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:27 pm

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:29 pm

AG Barr says ‘draconian’ coronavirus restrictions should be re-evaluated

https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/ag-barr-d ... evaluated/
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by I Shrugged » Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:58 pm

It's time to cut people loose, and those who wear masks, social distance, wash their hands and such will do fine.
The unhealthy should be more cautious still. Stay home as much as possible, etc.
If we the public haven't figured it out by now, then waiting longer is not going to make us any smarter. At some point we have to open back up, and I don't see any further gains from waiting.
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