Coronavirus General Discussion

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Tortoise
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Thu May 07, 2020 3:39 pm

upside wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 3:24 pm
The Supreme Court of Texas just ordered her release and Governor Abbot had this to say, "Throwing Texans in jail who have had their businesses shut down through no fault of their own is nonsensical, and I will not allow it to happen. That is why I am modifying my executive orders to ensure confinement is not a punishment for violating an order."
But presumably Governor Abbot is still okay with fines as a punishment? ::)

Just let these people operate their businesses to avoid losing what they’ve worked for years (sometimes their whole life) to build. For Christ’s sake.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by upside » Thu May 07, 2020 3:44 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 3:39 pm
Just let these people operate their businesses to avoid losing what they’ve worked for years (sometimes their whole life) to build. For Christ’s sake.
Couldn't agree more.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat May 09, 2020 12:18 am

"US coronavirus deaths:

10 wks ago: 0 deaths
9 wks ago: 17 deaths
8 wks ago: 49 deaths
7 wks ago: 249 deaths
6 wks ago: 1,588 deaths
5 wks ago: 7,152 deaths
4 wks ago: 18,758 deaths
3 wks ago: 37,054 deaths
2 wks ago: 51,017 deaths
1 wk ago: 64,943 deaths
Right now: 77,179 deaths"
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Sat May 09, 2020 3:43 pm

Another one bites the dust.

Sweet Tomatoes not re-opening.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/entertainm ... story.html
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Sun May 10, 2020 8:26 am

And this was a restaurant chain which should be more resilient than independent, non-chain businesses...

I'm really worried that we're going to see a lot of this here in NYC. Nearly all the retail stores in my neighborhood are single site owner-run businesses. Some of them closed temporarily then reopened, and the more popular restaurants stayed open and put out signs advertising takeout services, but the ones that are shut...who knows.

I'm pretty sure the city will make this much worse by continuing or even doubling down with their massive property tax increases of 10% or more every year. There were already a lot of empty storefronts before the lockdown, and if de Blasio makes the expected idiot move of increasing taxes even more next year I don't even want to know what's going to happen. My mother's suburban town has done this already (40% tax increase on my mother's commercial property), and the town is traditionally Republican-run and generally not anywhere near as destructive as de Blasio's government.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Libertarian666 » Sun May 10, 2020 10:13 am

WiseOne wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 8:26 am
And this was a restaurant chain which should be more resilient than independent, non-chain businesses...

I'm really worried that we're going to see a lot of this here in NYC. Nearly all the retail stores in my neighborhood are single site owner-run businesses. Some of them closed temporarily then reopened, and the more popular restaurants stayed open and put out signs advertising takeout services, but the ones that are shut...who knows.

I'm pretty sure the city will make this much worse by continuing or even doubling down with their massive property tax increases of 10% or more every year. There were already a lot of empty storefronts before the lockdown, and if de Blasio makes the expected idiot move of increasing taxes even more next year I don't even want to know what's going to happen. My mother's suburban town has done this already (40% tax increase on my mother's commercial property), and the town is traditionally Republican-run and generally not anywhere near as destructive as de Blasio's government.
Sounds like this would be a good time to leave.
Just sayin'...
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Sun May 10, 2020 1:50 pm

Not to derail further, but I fear property taxes will continue to increase where I live as well, and there are already murmurs about it. Why spend efficiently when you can just raise the rates?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Mon May 11, 2020 2:23 am

Those generous public employee pensions aren't going to pay themselves!
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by ochotona » Mon May 11, 2020 10:59 am

(Paul Tudor) Jones, the founder and chief executive officer at Tudor Investment Corp, said the U.S. may have trouble following contact tracing and other methods used by other nations to contain the virus quickly because of how Americans feel about individual freedoms,

“Americans are too different. I don’t think we would be able to come together and do that,” Jones said. “I think America’s biggest strength is individualism, its love of freedom. In the case of the pandemic, it’s also our biggest weakness. If you look at the Asian countries that are succeeding and beating this, they are doing it because they place a much greater emphasis on society values than they do on individual rights.”
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Mon May 11, 2020 12:29 pm

^ Totally.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Mon May 11, 2020 2:04 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 10:59 am
[Jones said] "If you look at the Asian countries that are succeeding and beating this..."
How do we define "succeeding and beating this"?

Initially the goal was to "flatten the curve," meaning prevent the hospitals from being filled beyond capacity with Covid-19 patients. We achieved that goal already.

But now the goalposts have been moved to a more ambiguous spot. If the new goal is defined as something like "a very low number of Covid-19 deaths per capita," then multiple countries and regions around the world are "succeeding and beating this" despite doing little to nothing in the way of social distancing, lockdowns, track-and-trace, etc. Bali is one example.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Mon May 11, 2020 4:21 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 2:04 pm
ochotona wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 10:59 am
[Jones said] "If you look at the Asian countries that are succeeding and beating this..."
How do we define "succeeding and beating this"?

Initially the goal was to "flatten the curve," meaning prevent the hospitals from being filled beyond capacity with Covid-19 patients. We achieved that goal already.

But now the goalposts have been moved to a more ambiguous spot. If the new goal is defined as something like "a very low number of Covid-19 deaths per capita," then multiple countries and regions around the world are "succeeding and beating this" despite doing little to nothing in the way of social distancing, lockdowns, track-and-trace, etc. Bali is one example.
Hasn't Cuomo pretty much moved the goalpost to "if one person dies of this virus it is one too many and unacceptable"? I think that was the gist of his statements last week about not being able to put a price on a human life.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by ochotona » Mon May 11, 2020 4:38 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 2:04 pm
ochotona wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 10:59 am
[Jones said] "If you look at the Asian countries that are succeeding and beating this..."
How do we define "succeeding and beating this"?
How about snuffing the virus through being proactive, smart, and using tech, and not having to wreck your country? I'm thinking Korea and Taiwan. How about that effing definition?

I'm bracing for the "OHHH but Korea... OHHH but Taiwan"...

I don't give a rat's ass about a small enclave in Indonesia (Bali). We're an industrial nation.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Mon May 11, 2020 5:26 pm

Actually, Cuomo's marker for "when to reopen" was hospitals having 30% available beds including elective procedures.

Which btw never happens under normal conditions. When it does, hospitals start squawking about how lazy physicians aren't inventing enough reasons to admit people to the hospital to keep the beds full. But at least it's a number somewhat grounded in reality.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by ochotona » Mon May 11, 2020 6:08 pm

Houston City Council member tests positive; she's a dentist. Dentists just went back to work days ago... the virus got past her PPE, if she got it at work. This thing is relentless!
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon May 11, 2020 6:27 pm

LA County inmates intentionally contract COVID-19 in order to be set free

Releasing inmates from jails remains one of the more baffling episodes of this whole thing.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Mon May 11, 2020 6:48 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 4:38 pm
How about snuffing the virus through being proactive, smart, and using tech, and not having to wreck your country? I'm thinking Korea and Taiwan. How about that effing definition?
I agree that wrecking the effing economy by keeping it effing locked down is definitely not the right effing solution. :)

But I don't think that widespread track-and-trace using tech (which involves privacy concerns) is necessarily the best alternative given U.S. history and culture. What about the option of identifying the U.S. citizens who have the highest risk factors (age, obesity, etc.) and protecting them until a treatment, vaccine, or herd immunity is obtained -- and let everyone else resume their normal lives? Is that not a viable option, and if not, why?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon May 11, 2020 6:51 pm

You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Dieter » Mon May 11, 2020 8:31 pm

Even the Whitehouse now. Seems a bit like shutting the gate after the fox is in the henhouse.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white- ... irus-cases
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by boglerdude » Mon May 11, 2020 10:48 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 5:26 pm
hospitals start squawking about how lazy physicians aren't inventing enough reasons to admit people to the hospital to keep the beds full.
Hyperbole?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Tue May 12, 2020 7:42 am

Interesting epidemiology data from New York: it turns out that those getting seriously ill from the virus are a highly select group that has little or nothing to do with economic activity. Excerpt from https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-covid ... _lead_pos2:
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has directed hospitals to begin asking new coronavirus patients for their occupation, usual transportation mode and neighborhood. Although New York has been shut down for seven weeks, several thousand people are still testing positive and hundreds are being hospitalized each day.

Last week Mr. Cuomo disclosed some preliminary findings: Twenty-two percent of those who entered the hospital came from a nursing home or assisted living facility. Ninety-six percent had an underlying health condition. Yet only 17% were employed, and only 4% in New York City had been taking public transportation.

“We were thinking that maybe we were going to find a higher percentage of essential employees who were getting sick because they were going to work—that these may be nurses, doctors, transit workers. That’s not the case,” he said. “They’re not working, they’re not traveling, they’re predominantly downstate, predominantly minority, predominantly older.”
...
Surprisingly, millennials who are known to crowd bars and clubs were about as likely to carry antibodies as baby boomers. Even more curious, 12% of health-care workers tested positive for antibodies compared to 20% of the general population.
This is excellent data (due credit to Cuomo for deciding to collect it) that needs to be replicated elsewhere. It sure looks like the case for economic lockdowns is now almost nonexistent. Cases in NY are probably dropping not because working-age people are staying home, but because the virus has mostly run its course in the small slice of the population that is most at risk. Sort like a forest fire that has used up most of the dry tinder and is now burning around the fringes.

Also, it is reassuring to know that only 4% of serious cases occur in people without an "underlying health condition" which I assume means something like diabetes, asthma, or morbid obesity. Old age is certainly associated with these conditions, but not everyone in that age group will have them. If you're older and don't have any health problems and aren't morbidly obese (BMI > 40), then according to these data you're in the safe group!
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue May 12, 2020 8:02 am

WiseOne wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 7:42 am
Interesting epidemiology data from New York: it turns out that those getting seriously ill from the virus are a highly select group that has little or nothing to do with economic activity. Excerpt from https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-covid ... _lead_pos2:
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has directed hospitals to begin asking new coronavirus patients for their occupation, usual transportation mode and neighborhood. Although New York has been shut down for seven weeks, several thousand people are still testing positive and hundreds are being hospitalized each day.

Last week Mr. Cuomo disclosed some preliminary findings: Twenty-two percent of those who entered the hospital came from a nursing home or assisted living facility. Ninety-six percent had an underlying health condition. Yet only 17% were employed, and only 4% in New York City had been taking public transportation.

“We were thinking that maybe we were going to find a higher percentage of essential employees who were getting sick because they were going to work—that these may be nurses, doctors, transit workers. That’s not the case,” he said. “They’re not working, they’re not traveling, they’re predominantly downstate, predominantly minority, predominantly older.”
...
Surprisingly, millennials who are known to crowd bars and clubs were about as likely to carry antibodies as baby boomers. Even more curious, 12% of health-care workers tested positive for antibodies compared to 20% of the general population.
This is excellent data (due credit to Cuomo for deciding to collect it) that needs to be replicated elsewhere. It sure looks like the case for economic lockdowns is now almost nonexistent. Cases in NY are probably dropping not because working-age people are staying home, but because the virus has mostly run its course in the small slice of the population that is most at risk. Sort like a forest fire that has used up most of the dry tinder and is now burning around the fringes.

Also, it is reassuring to know that only 4% of serious cases occur in people without an "underlying health condition" which I assume means something like diabetes, asthma, or morbid obesity. Old age is certainly associated with these conditions, but not everyone in that age group will have them. If you're older and don't have any health problems and aren't morbidly obese (BMI > 40), then according to these data you're in the safe group!
So has Cuomo ended the lockdowns?
If not, he needs to be impeached and removed from office.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue May 12, 2020 10:41 am

MangoMan wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 9:49 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:02 am
WiseOne wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 7:42 am
Interesting epidemiology data from New York: it turns out that those getting seriously ill from the virus are a highly select group that has little or nothing to do with economic activity. Excerpt from https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-covid ... _lead_pos2:
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has directed hospitals to begin asking new coronavirus patients for their occupation, usual transportation mode and neighborhood. Although New York has been shut down for seven weeks, several thousand people are still testing positive and hundreds are being hospitalized each day.

Last week Mr. Cuomo disclosed some preliminary findings: Twenty-two percent of those who entered the hospital came from a nursing home or assisted living facility. Ninety-six percent had an underlying health condition. Yet only 17% were employed, and only 4% in New York City had been taking public transportation.

“We were thinking that maybe we were going to find a higher percentage of essential employees who were getting sick because they were going to work—that these may be nurses, doctors, transit workers. That’s not the case,” he said. “They’re not working, they’re not traveling, they’re predominantly downstate, predominantly minority, predominantly older.”
...
Surprisingly, millennials who are known to crowd bars and clubs were about as likely to carry antibodies as baby boomers. Even more curious, 12% of health-care workers tested positive for antibodies compared to 20% of the general population.
This is excellent data (due credit to Cuomo for deciding to collect it) that needs to be replicated elsewhere. It sure looks like the case for economic lockdowns is now almost nonexistent. Cases in NY are probably dropping not because working-age people are staying home, but because the virus has mostly run its course in the small slice of the population that is most at risk. Sort like a forest fire that has used up most of the dry tinder and is now burning around the fringes.

Also, it is reassuring to know that only 4% of serious cases occur in people without an "underlying health condition" which I assume means something like diabetes, asthma, or morbid obesity. Old age is certainly associated with these conditions, but not everyone in that age group will have them. If you're older and don't have any health problems and aren't morbidly obese (BMI > 40), then according to these data you're in the safe group!
So has Cuomo ended the lockdowns?
If not, he needs to be impeached and removed from office.
Why is Fauci still saying not to allow re-opening?
Maybe he doesn't want to be blamed for any subsequent deaths from the plague.
He probably won't be blamed by most people for all of the suicides, etc., caused by the lockdowns. That doesn't make them go away though.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Tue May 12, 2020 10:42 am

Good questions! Not sure the implications of these findings have sunk in. It would also be useful to do the same the study elsewhere to show that the results are reproducible.

And politically, how do you admit you made a mistake, even if you could be readily forgiven that mistake on scientific grounds, and reverse course on your policy as a result? It'll never happen.

Plus, it was kind of interesting that Cuomo is a better epidemiologist than most epidemiologists. None of them had the sense to go after this info. That of course will be yet another reason why there will be no recognition of this by the medical establishment. It's the "Not Invented Here" syndrome.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pmward » Tue May 12, 2020 8:06 pm

Well AZ is officially going to be the guinea pigs... The last 2 weeks have been our highest in both cases and deaths yet (matter of fact just last Friday was our largest day for both to date)... and our governor just officially announced that in spite of that we are doing full open up this Friday. He already opened restaurants yesterday. Gyms are slated to open tomorrow and he plans to have full open by the end of the week. I'm guessing this is not going to end well. WTF was the point in even locking down to begin with if he was just going to open us back up when cases and deaths are still increasing???
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