options expiry dates

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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stone
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options expiry dates

Post by stone »

I got the impression that it is important to only ever buy gold at the options expiry dates because those drive the short term cycling of the gold price. Are there particular months that have especially significant option expiry dates (due to more options being in circulation for those months or whatever)? 
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MediumTex
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Re: options expiry dates

Post by MediumTex »

With the PP, given that you are only buying gold every few years (at the most) after you have done your initial setup of the portfolio, I'm pretty sure that options expiration is not something you need to keep up with.

If you think about it, if there was some method of purchasing that was that simple, it seems like the market would arbitrage it away very quickly.
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stone
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Re: options expiry dates

Post by stone »

Medium Tex, I'm in the position of having monthly savings that get paid in whenever there is enough for the transaction costs to be minimal. I guess quite a few people will be either adding to or drawing down a PP rather than purely conveying it along. I totally agree that option expiry date driven price irregularities ought to be arbitraged away just as you describe but it really is shocking to look at a plot of the gold price and mark on the dates of the dips and the option expiry dates. I guess it must do with  the options providing such a non-linear return with respect to the gold price. Perhaps also the tradition of dips at options expiry is a self perpetuating bandwagon amongst short term gold traders- shorting in the lead up to it, then buying at the expiry date? What ought to happen and what happens don't normally coincide do they. Unemployment, poverty etc also ought to be arbitraged away :).
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MediumTex
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Re: options expiry dates

Post by MediumTex »

If you are more comfortable buying gold on a certain day, by all means buy it on that day.

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Re: options expiry dates

Post by stone »

Gold option expiry tomorow and the classic sell off seems to be taking place again.
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgment." - Mulla Nasrudin
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