Coronavirus General Discussion

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pp4me
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:25 pm

D1984 wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:22 am
I'm not exactly sure where you're getting the above data from....but Florida's own Dept of Health data shows that from 9/3/21 to 9/9/21 they had 353 COVID-19 deaths.
It popped up on a Bing search for "Florida Covid Dashboard"
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:30 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:52 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:07 pm
HOLD THE ABSOLUTE FUCK UP
Worst headline I have ever read! Let’s hope it’s not true.
How the hell do they expect anyone to survive Covid on only 6 beers a day? And by Covid I don't mean just the disease but the whole damn thing.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:00 pm

This is interesting. [DISCLAIMER: The previous statement is for entertainment purposes only. You may not find it interesting]
David Zweig, The Atlantic wrote:Our Most Reliable Pandemic Number Is Losing Meaning

A new study suggests that almost half of those hospitalized with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic cases.
pp4me
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:34 pm

flyingpylon wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:00 pm
This is interesting. [DISCLAIMER: The previous statement is for entertainment purposes only. You may not find it interesting]
David Zweig, The Atlantic wrote:Our Most Reliable Pandemic Number Is Losing Meaning

A new study suggests that almost half of those hospitalized with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic cases.
This is why I prefer the number of deaths statistic to judge how bad things really are. Cases and Hospitalizations don't tell you much but if you're dead, you're dead, end of story. Covid deaths could also be misleading depending on how they count them but at least it gives you a better idea of what's really going on.
whatchamacallit
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by whatchamacallit » Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:17 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:58 pm
flyingpylon wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:00 pm
This is interesting. [DISCLAIMER: The previous statement is for entertainment purposes only. You may not find it interesting]
David Zweig, The Atlantic wrote:Our Most Reliable Pandemic Number Is Losing Meaning

A new study suggests that almost half of those hospitalized with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic cases.
So half the people in the hospital are just a bunch of wussies?
I can believe it. What incentive does a hospital have to turn away patients? Isn't a covid patient a good pay day?
barrett
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by barrett » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:26 pm

pp4me wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:25 pm
D1984 wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:22 am
I'm not exactly sure where you're getting the above data from....but Florida's own Dept of Health data shows that from 9/3/21 to 9/9/21 they had 353 COVID-19 deaths.
It popped up on a Bing search for "Florida Covid Dashboard"
This is from The Miami Herald on September 2:

"On Aug. 10, as COVID ravaged the state, Florida changed the way it compiles data on COVID deaths. It did so without telling the public — even though the change abruptly made it look as though the pandemic was, as one expert put it, in “artificial decline.”

A Miami Herald analysis published this week exposed the behind-the-scenes shift. Here’s what changed: Instead of counting each COVID death on the date it was recorded, as many states do for their daily COVID stats, the Florida Department of Health switched to a different methodology, counting each death on the date it actually occurred.

There is often a significant lag — days or weeks — between the day a person succumbs to COVID and the day the death is officially recorded as a COVID death. Charting the deaths under the new methodology can make it look as though deaths are declining even when that’s not true."

The full article is here:

https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/edi ... 15538.html

So it appears that deaths are declining when that may or may not be the case. But that doesn't necessarily mean that it's deliberately misleading. It's much like the CDC excess death data that is really only accurate when looking back a few weeks.

Here in CT deaths used to be reported Monday through Friday along with other Covid data. Now the official death total only comes out on Thursday. So we have zero deaths for six days in a row and then maybe 25 or 30 (apparently) on one day.

According to Worldometers data, "cases" (positive tests) in Florida are at a seven-day average of about 10,000. See here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:58 pm
flyingpylon wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:00 pm
This is interesting. [DISCLAIMER: The previous statement is for entertainment purposes only. You may not find it interesting]
David Zweig, The Atlantic wrote:Our Most Reliable Pandemic Number Is Losing Meaning

A new study suggests that almost half of those hospitalized with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic cases.
So half the people in the hospital are just a bunch of wussies?
They were admitted for a different reason, and happened to test positive for COVID; 40-50% in one study of children in early 2020, 36% (mid Jan 21) up to 48% (June 21) for all cases, which he didn't link to.
. . .this study suggests that COVID hospitalization tallies can’t be taken as a simple measure of the prevalence of severe or even moderate disease, because they might inflate the true numbers by a factor of two. “As we look to shift from cases to hospitalizations as a metric to drive policy and assess level of risk to a community or state or country,” Doron told me, referring to decisions about school closures, business restrictions, mask requirements, and so on, “we should refine the definition of hospitalization. Those patients who are there with rather than from COVID don’t belong in the metric.”
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:41 pm

Thank you for posting that article, Flying!

I can't believe it, someone in the journalism field suddenly decided to practice journalism. Wow. It's not like we here on the forum haven't been talking about the difference between positive tests and COVID cases for months. Congrats to us for being that much more clear-eyed than 99.999% of journalists, and quicker on the uptake than the remaining 0.001%.

So half of all hospitalized cases are not true COVID cases, because the COVID diagnosis was incidental and based solely on a positive test. Check. Now for the fun part. This is still a huge overestimate. The study generously assumed that anyone with a pulse ox below 94% and a positive COVID test represented a true moderate/severe COVID case. Well guess what, there are a TON of reasons for someone in the hospital to have a pulse ox below 94%, besides COVID. So what proportion of the 55% of cases that passed that simple test were actually COVID, then? Could have been much, much smaller. Too bad they didn't take it a step further and do subsequent sifting using other CDC criteria for clinical COVID.

Well, we at least know one more thing now: let's say that Biden succeeds in forcing every last person within our borders to be vaccinated. Will COVID then go away? NO - unless all testing is stopped the moment the last shot goes in the last arm. Hmm. If you own stock in a company that sells COVID tests, you might want to sell.

Disclaimer: This is not to say that COVID isn't real or that vaccines are useless. COVID is real. The vaccine does give you some protection, and with a reasonable safety profile based on experience to date. I'm just objecting to public policy being determined based on uncritical counting of positive tests.
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I Shrugged
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:46 pm

Well the slope of the Florida 7 day average deaths curve (I looked at a few sites) is heading downward at about a 60 degree angle. We just don't know where it will bottom, but a normal chart interpretation would suggest it is indeed crashing. I still say (hope) that this time will be the charm, so to speak.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by barrett » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:33 am

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:46 pm
Well the slope of the Florida 7 day average deaths curve (I looked at a few sites) is heading downward at about a 60 degree angle. We just don't know where it will bottom, but a normal chart interpretation would suggest it is indeed crashing. I still say (hope) that this time will be the charm, so to speak.
Shrugged,

Please read what I wrote three posts above yours. In early August Florida changed it's death counting method so that deaths are now "backdated". Using that method almost has to produce a current "crashing" look to a chart.

Having said that, I absolutely hope that this time is in fact the charm.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:39 pm

Desert wrote:
Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:47 pm
Here is another COVID hospitalization overcounting study:

https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/ ... unted.html

It's clear that hospitalization data as currently gathered isn't the best metric. One could use this info to plunge further into conspiracy-land, or one could realize that knowledge continues to evolve/improve as more data is analyzed.
One of the many problems is that this poor/incomplete hospitalization data is being used to justify mandates and demonize people. Anyone that recognizes that knowledge continues to evolve/improve but also questions the official narrative is then lumped into "conspiracy-land". Doesn't seem like a good way to solve a problem, if in fact that is the end goal.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:57 pm

Glenn Greenwald had an insightful article today, which I admit I only skimmed, on the topic of how the elites get to be mask free while they are attended to by masked peons, photo'd by masked photographers, etc. Specifically at various political and left wing galas, but it's probably similar at right wing ones too.

When you think of it, it's a stark image of two classes of people.
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Hal
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Hal » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:23 am

Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:57 pm

Hal wrote:
Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:23 am
Meanwhile in Australia....
https://www.facebook.com/therealrukshan ... 052308649/
Well, at least it appears you've been culturally enriched.

But in all seriousness, I'm glad that wasn't a black guy or else there might be riots breaking out all across America.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:22 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:09 pm
Why believe me?
Why progressive women want to date men who act like conservatives
“It’s a mismatch between what progressive women say they want and what they actually respond to,” Miller told me. “Women’s instinctive mate preferences have evolved for hundreds of thousands of years for guys who are competent, strong, good providers, good protectors and happy with a sexual division of labor,” he added. Women want “decisive men who are also compassionate and thoughtful.”

A 2018 study from Iowa State University backs this up, reporting that progressive women prefer men who demonstrate more traditional dating behaviors. The women found these men to be “more attractive” because they signal a willingness “to invest by being protective, committed, and by providing resources.”
God damn Melanie! Putting "Mark" on blast!

This reminded me of a hilarious quote from January Jones (Mrs. Draper from Mad Men, one of the greatest shows of all time):
The former Mad Men actress says she’s a proud single mom whose son doesn’t need a father because she doesn’t want a man around the house to teach him “sh**ty things.”
Speaking to Red magazine, the actress best known for her role as Betty Draper says that she prefers to parent her five-year-old son Xander without any dad figures in his life. She believes having a strong male influence would do the boy more harm than good.
“It’s good to have strong women around a man. To teach him to respect women,” she said. “He doesn’t have a male person in his life saying ‘don’t cry’ or ‘you throw like a girl.’ All those sh**ty things dads accidentally do.”
I hear you, girlfriend.
“I just don’t feel I need a partner. Do I want one? Maybe,” Jones continued. “But I don’t feel unhappy or lonely. It would have to be someone so amazing that I would want to make room. Someone who would contribute to my happiness and not take away from it.”
Jones has never publicly disclosed the identity of Xander’s father, and judging from her comments to Red, it’s clear he has little to no role in the boy’s life. She says that the boy is perfectly fine in the company of the “strong women” in his life like Rose Byrne and Amy Adams.
When the magazine asked if she was still interested in a partner, she confirmed that she was—unless he’s conservative.
“I want a manly man in flannel, with a beard and an axe,” she said. “But then there’s always something wrong with him. Like he’s a Republican.”
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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vnatale
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:14 pm

Don't know if this graph has been adjusted to reflect the new way Florida is reporting (as discussed here a few days ago...).

Vinny


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Mark Leavy
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mark Leavy » Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:15 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:14 pm
Don't know if this graph has been adjusted to reflect the new way Florida is reporting (as discussed here a few days ago...).

Vinny


Capture.JPG
Vinny, I gotta tell you. I almost understand this one. Just a couple a questions:

1) What are the units on the Y axis?
2) What does it all mean?
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vnatale
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:54 am

Mark Leavy wrote:
Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:15 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:14 pm

Don't know if this graph has been adjusted to reflect the new way Florida is reporting (as discussed here a few days ago...).

Vinny


Capture.JPG


Vinny, I gotta tell you. I almost understand this one. Just a couple a questions:

1) What are the units on the Y axis?
2) What does it all mean?


My reading is:

1) Units on the Y axis are: "seven day rolling average of new deaths in Florida"
2) They are been increasing steadily since sometime in July / August..then have recently greatly increased.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by whatchamacallit » Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:56 am

Just spoke with someone in 30s that was on ventilator. No other health issues. You just never know how you will react.

It is worth getting a dose of vaccine.

Get an antibody test first if you like.

Then get you some spike protein exposure if your negative.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:08 am

3E0FBA2D-6DB5-43B7-94A0-FF29A01205EA.jpeg
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dualstow
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:22 am

😂
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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vnatale
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sun Sep 19, 2021 6:53 pm

In retrospect...which of these turned out to be either untrue or ineffective for the Spanish Flu? Which ones would not apply now?

Vinny

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Hal
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Hal » Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:17 pm

You may find this interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gaCyNO97NI
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dualstow
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:08 am

2015 thread about vaccines and heard immunity.

Great comments from WiseOne and Machine Ghost. (i think the daily show link may be broken).

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=6806
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WiseOne
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:58 am

Thanks for resurrecting that dualstow! I was thinking about that....I've done quite an about face on the COVID vaccine, on the face of it.

I don't know if COVID and measles can be compared. Measles vaccine gives you lifetime immunity because the virus doesn't mutate the way coronaviruses do - and the effectiveness is way higher than the COVID vaccine. And, in the case of measles vaccinated people don't spread the virus. The CDC tells us that's not true of COVID, meaning that "herd immunity" simply doesn't apply.

And...the measles vaccine has been around for decades and its effects have been studied extensively. I was nervous about the COVID vaccine being based on new-to-humans technology and rolled out hastily with all kinds of corners being cut. Like the extended clinical trials required to properly assess adverse events and long term effectiveness. Or in the case of J&J, any properly powered clinical trial at all. I didn't disagree with making it available to those at high risk for serious COVID complications, and maybe also to people who want it for whatever reason provided that they are well informed about the risks. The thalidomide story is a more apt analogy than the measles vaccine, frankly.
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