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I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
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- dualstow
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Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Gold tumbles as interest rates look to be staying high for now (APR30)
Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Easily!
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Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
- dualstow
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Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
ahahahahahah!
Gold tumbles as interest rates look to be staying high for now (APR30)
- bitcoininthevp
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Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Bitcoin has smart contracts. In fact each Bitcoin transaction is a series of contracts.
No need for Ethereum or a blockchain if you're going for regulated networks. Just some feds running a central database will do.
Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Fri Sep 29, 2023 1:48 pmBitcoin has smart contracts. In fact each Bitcoin transaction is a series of contracts.
No need for Ethereum or a blockchain if you're going for regulated networks. Just some feds running a central database will do.
Etherium has smart contracts too, in fact that was a big point during the NFT craze: that the creator of the work could be paid a percentage each time the work was involved in a transaction. However, a bunch of marketplaces recently decided they would no longer pay that royalty fee. Turns out that built-in smart contract actually doesn't mean anything.
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Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Much of "crypto" is decentralized theater.Xan wrote: ↑Fri Sep 29, 2023 1:53 pm Etherium has smart contracts too, in fact that was a big point during the NFT craze: that the creator of the work could be paid a percentage each time the work was involved in a transaction. However, a bunch of marketplaces recently decided they would no longer pay that royalty fee. Turns out that built-in smart contract actually doesn't mean anything.
Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Gold has a 10 year CAGR of 3.46 percent. It feels like a super tanker moving very slowly (reflecting an inflationary environment).
- mathjak107
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Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
gold is a competitor to the dollar ..at 3.46% the last 10 years it out performed cash instruments
Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
I realize now that all of the conventional inflation narratives around gold are BS. "Gold responds to inflation" - August 2020 until now really disproves that.
- vnatale
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Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
William Bernstein told us that 10 years ago!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/phildemuth ... f5f18765b3
Inflation
Here is one of Bernstein's most interesting contributions. First of all, a serious inflation shock is the most probable big risk we face. Second, everything you know about how to cope with it is wrong.
Gold, it turns out, is no great inflation hedge. In serious inflations, it behaves like any real asset -- keeping pace with CPI but little more (which also means you need a lot of it to do you any good). Commodity producers, it turns out, have worked better. The cheapest solution is to hold an internationally diversified stock portfolio, so that rampant inflation in the U.S. can be offset by more stable returns from foreign stocks. A long-term, fixed rate mortgage tied to a house not purchased in a bubble will also offer an offset. Finally, there are inflation-protected bonds for those who want them.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
How about US domestic stocks. I thought in a general inflationary environment they go up as well. That seems to me to be the easiest inflation hedge. And gold seems to be a long term inflation hedge and maybe a chaos hedge.
Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
My experience with holding gold is that, in the short term, it's a noncorrelated asset (meaning its not correlated with anything, including current affairs or inflation) and that it tends to move in cycles/trends that are evident over maybe a decade. Long term, it mirrors inflation -- more precisely, currency devaluation, but that's a messy thing that's not easy to quantify short-term. As such, gold's a useful asset for portfolios that rebalance with a frequency of less than a decade but more than annually, maybe every three to five years, such as the PP with rebalance bands.
My gut feeling is that gold has reached a new support level and that we won't be going below, say, $1600 again. But who knows?
My gut feeling is that gold has reached a new support level and that we won't be going below, say, $1600 again. But who knows?
Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Since July 31, 2021, gold is -2% and TLT is -47%. That's a really good argument for having gold. And now, gold is starting to buck the ten year real yield. There is scant argument to be made for a 90 y.o. person to hold stocks, but in addition to bonds I bought GLDM for my Mom, and looking back, I am soooo glad I did. The gold and cash have held the roof up.
- dualstow
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Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Yes, Ocho.
Gold is definitely rising in a monkey’s paw, this-is-not-how-I-wanted-my-wish-granted way.
Gold is definitely rising in a monkey’s paw, this-is-not-how-I-wanted-my-wish-granted way.
Gold tumbles as interest rates look to be staying high for now (APR30)