Putin Invades Ukraine II

[dualstow]

Well, looks like only removing the drones / missles that Iran shot at Israel
Still, that's at least some that can't go to Russia (plus however many Iran wants to keep on hand)

^ Right! ^

[dualstow]

The Financial Times reports that Europe is preparing for more acts of sabotage perpetrated by Russian agents in Europe. They’ve already destroyed a Diehl arms factory in Germany, set fire to a UK warehouse full of aid meant for Ukraine. They attempted to derail trains in Sweden and destroy train sigaling systems in the Czech state.
“German-Russian nationals were arrested in Bayreuth, Bavaria, for allegedly plotting to attack military and logistics sites in Germany on behalf of Russia.“
and so on.
https://www.ft.com/content/c88509f9-c9b ... 2bdd3c3dd3

[dualstow]

Also, Ukraine’s domestic intelligence service says they have foiled an assassination plot. Two colonels in the state security service, the agency that is supposed to be keeping Zelensky alive, have been arrested. (FT)

[yankees60]

The Financial Times reports that Europe is preparing for more acts of sabotage perpetrated by Russian agents in Europe. They’ve already destroyed a Diehl arms factory in Germany, set fire to a UK warehouse full of aid meant for Ukraine. They attempted to derail trains in Sweden and destroy train sigaling systems in the Czech state.
“German-Russian nationals were arrested in Bayreuth, Bavaria, for allegedly plotting to attack military and logistics sites in Germany on behalf of Russia.“
and so on.
https://www.ft.com/content/c88509f9-c9b ... 2bdd3c3dd3

Cannot get to the article. Does it say at all how the countries intent to respond? And, it's clear these are under Russian control and not independents?

[yankees60]

Also, Ukraine’s domestic intelligence service says they have foiled an assassination plot. Two colonels in the state security service, the agency that is supposed to be keeping Zelensky alive, have been arrested. (FT)

That is certainly NOT comforting news.

[Xan]

Did NATO Promise Not to Enlarge? Gorbachev Says “No”

[dualstow]

( Sees 6 Notifications. Uh oh, there’s a bot posting. Checks. Oh, it’s Vinny )

Vinny, it does confirm they are Russian agents from various departments, not lone wolves.
It doesn’t talk about a response so much as beefing up security and preparing for war. Finland particularly is getting ready for a full on invasion. But they’re always ready.

There are also articles about how natural gas is used to make fertilizer (!!!), so Russia has made up for some of the gas sales being squeezed by sanctions by just selling a bunch of fertilizer.

[yankees60]

Did NATO Promise Not to Enlarge? Gorbachev Says “No”

Thanks for this!

[dualstow]

Controversial Azov Brigade is back. Well, they never left, but the U.S. has lifted the weapons ban
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... -111009371

[boglerdude]

[dualstow]

The Excalibur artillery round performed wonders when it was introduced into the Ukrainian battlefield in the summer of 2022. Guided by GPS, the shells hit Russian tanks and artillery with surgical precision, as drones overhead filmed the resulting fireballs. That didn’t last. Within weeks, the Russian army started to adapt, using its formidable electronic warfare capabilities. It managed to interfere with the GPS guidance and fuzes, so that the shells would either go astray, fail to detonate, or both. By the middle of last year, the M982 Excalibur munitions, developed by RTX and BAE Systems, became essentially useless and are no longer employed, Ukrainian commanders say.

— from the WSJ, ‘ High-Tech American Weapons Work Against Russia—Until They Don’t’
7/10/24

[dualstow]

The Russians tried to kill the CEO of Rheinmetall, a “ German manufacturer of tanks, armored vehicles and ammunition.”
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/u-s-ge ... e-9cc497f3

[yankees60]

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/u ... ion-fears/

UkraineAlert

July 16, 2024

Russia’s retreat from Crimea makes a mockery of the West’s escalation fears
By Peter Dickinson

[dualstow]

Happy for Paul Whelan and Even Gershkovich

[Xan]

Happy for Paul Whelan and Even Gershkovich

Definitely!

I just hope this doesn't encourage Russia to kidnap more "spies" as a way to get their own out of jail.

[yankees60]

Happy for Paul Whelan and Even Gershkovich

Definitely!

I just hope this doesn't encourage Russia to kidnap more "spies" as a way to get their own out of jail.

That is the way some people negotiate. Start with an extreme, extreme position so that the proverbial middle is not at all the middle or fair at all.

[Smith1776]

Happy for Paul Whelan and Even Gershkovich

Definitely!

I just hope this doesn't encourage Russia to kidnap more "spies" as a way to get their own out of jail.

That is the way some people negotiate. Start with an extreme, extreme position so that the proverbial middle is not at all the middle or fair at all.

Ah indeed. Sometimes it works, but other times it backfires and causes the other party to walk away. A woman in HK offered a tea set for $200HKD. When we threatened to walk we got it for $60HKD.

[dualstow]

I just hope this doesn't encourage Russia to kidnap more "spies" as a way to get their own out of jail.

Always a concern, but I don’t think they need any encouragement. I just don’t understand how Griner got out so “quickly” (relatively), while Whelan languished in prison for nearly 6 years.

[dualstow]

The incursion into Russian territory was an interesting surprise.
I wonder if they can afford it.

[yankees60]

The incursion into Russian territory was an interesting surprise.
I wonder if they can afford it.

"Afford it" in which ways?

[dualstow]

"Afford it" in which ways?

I mean in the sense of allocating troops and weapons to do that. If it doesn’t work out, it will be said that they spread themselves too thin. But, maybe they’re distracting Russian forces for some clever reason.
It’s an interesting gamble.

[seajay]

"Afford it" in which ways?

I mean in the sense of allocating troops and weapons to do that. If it doesn’t work out, it will be said that they spread themselves too thin. But, maybe they’re distracting Russian forces for some clever reason.
It’s an interesting gamble.

Putin has offered a "negotiated" settlement - but where that's been based on dictatorial terms, Russia gets to retain Crimea, Donbas ...etc. Trump being elected is perhaps inclined to induce a 'negotiated settlement' i.e. leaves Ukraine in a weak position and having lost land. If Ukraine in turn occupies some of Russia then that significantly changes things. Redraw the borders to the newer occupied lines and Ukraine loses Crimea/Donbas etc. but gains former Russian land that is just 300 miles away from Moscow. Less inclined to see a whitewash, more inclined to see the war continue and where Trump could up the support/supply of Ukraine after Putin pulls out of negotiations due to the terms being unacceptable. "Bad man, bad man, not a nice man" (Trump comment about Putin).

[yankees60]

"Afford it" in which ways?

I mean in the sense of allocating troops and weapons to do that. If it doesn’t work out, it will be said that they spread themselves too thin. But, maybe they’re distracting Russian forces for some clever reason.
It’s an interesting gamble.

Putin has offered a "negotiated" settlement - but where that's been based on dictatorial terms, Russia gets to retain Crimea, Donbas ...etc. Trump being elected is perhaps inclined to induce a 'negotiated settlement' i.e. leaves Ukraine in a weak position and having lost land. If Ukraine in turn occupies some of Russia then that significantly changes things. Redraw the borders to the newer occupied lines and Ukraine loses Crimea/Donbas etc. but gains former Russian land that is just 300 miles away from Moscow. Less inclined to see a whitewash, more inclined to see the war continue and where Trump could up the support/supply of Ukraine after Putin pulls out of negotiations due to the terms being unacceptable. "Bad man, bad man, not a nice man" (Trump comment about Putin).

It's looking less and less likely that Trump will be elected. He's made himself poison to too many people.

[dualstow]

Well, that’s for another thread, Yankees.

[seajay]

As Ukraine's in-house nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile developments near ready for testing, one has to wonder where they'll actually test as a declaration of capability. Foresee a year end 2024 for gold being a +25% year or more.