The Sahm indicator just threw a signal - we are in a recession

[ochotona]

It's 0.53 as of today, unless my math is wrong (which it might be). Look at the official graph later. It has a stellar track record.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME

[Smith1776]

It's 0.53 as of today, unless my math is wrong (which it might be). Look at the official graph later. It has a stellar track record.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME

Interesting. I've literally never heard of such an indicator till now. I'm looking it up and it seems like it could potentially be very insightful.

[ochotona]

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/what ... ut-economy

I SELL equities if the S&P500 loses its 6 month moving average minus a 1% fudge factor, so I'm selling on Friday August 30, if $SPX >= 5246. That's -1.7% away from where we are now.

[dualstow]

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/what ... ut-economy

I SELL equities if the S&P500 loses its 6 month moving average minus a 1% fudge factor, so I'm selling on Friday August 30, if $SPX >= 5246. That's -1.7% away from where we are now.

Selling…all of your equities?

[whatchamacallit]

Interview with Claudia Sahm posted an hour ago:

[boglerdude]

S&P net profits 3.68% https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings-yield

10 year 3.96%

Those are your options. Pretty close. whats the problem?

edit1 for more substance https://obliviousinvestor.com/investing ... ve-return/

[jatwell]

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/what ... ut-economy

I SELL equities if the S&P500 loses its 6 month moving average minus a 1% fudge factor, so I'm selling on Friday August 30, if $SPX >= 5246. That's -1.7% away from where we are now.

When do you buy?