The Permanent Portfolio has been on a strong upward trend, reaching levels that, historically, tend to precede some kind of cooling period or even a correction.
Over the last months, we’ve seen a steady appreciation across its core components. Typically, the Permanent Portfolio works as a hedge, balancing growth and protection. But when everything rises at the same time, it raises an important question: are we entering overextended territory?
A few factors are worth keeping in mind:
Historically, sharp rallies are often followed by a correction or at least a sideways consolidation.
Current global monetary policy remains uncertain, which could impact bonds and gold simultaneously.
Stocks have been on a persistent bull run, increasing the overall portfolio value beyond what some consider sustainable in the short term.
Investor sentiment seems overly optimistic — and excessive optimism is often a contrarian signal.
Of course, markets can stay irrational longer than expected, and it’s possible the rally continues well into next year. But from a risk management perspective, this could be a good moment to review allocations and expectations.
What do you think?Is this just the beginning of a longer bullish cycle?
Or are we setting up for a healthy (or not so healthy) correction in 2026?
