2025 Gold Forecasts

[stpeter]

According to the WSJ: "Analysts at JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup share a price target of $3,000" an ounce in 2025. The reasons: lower interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying, little industrial demand, and momentum.

More details at https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities ... s-4252d27e for those of you who subscribe.

[dualstow]

Thank you!
So another 14-15%?

[ochotona]

Gold increases to $3000
GDXJ and GDX decrease

[ppnewbie]

I think it’s made a nice move. Would be very happy for it to stay right here for a year or more.

[Dieter]

If it performs how it's done every day so for in 2025, wouldn't be a bad return
(IAU up 1.37% every trading day through 1/2/2025 )

(although what that would say about the rest of the economy in 2025, ugh)

[yankees60]

I assume Gold ETF's price changes fairly much parallel the price of gold?

Which are your three top Gold ETFs today?

I, also, that the prices of gold mining stock do not parallel the price of gold? Anyone know the correlation of their prices to the prices of gold?

[dualstow]

I, also, that the prices of gold mining stock do not parallel the price of gold? Anyone know the correlation of their prices to the prices of gold?

Yes, note that GDX, which ocho mentioned, is miners.

Common sense says miners can have manager risk, windfalls after exploration, problems with illegal miners (as we have seen in recent articles) and so on.

Experience says: miners often move more dramatically than gold itself.

I’m never buying miners again. I don’t need the headache.

[ppnewbie]

It’s black magic. Nobody knows.

[yankees60]

I, also, that the prices of gold mining stock do not parallel the price of gold? Anyone know the correlation of their prices to the prices of gold?

Yes, note that GDX, which ocho mentioned, is miners.

Common sense says miners can have manager risk, windfalls after exploration, problems with illegal miners (as we have seen in recent articles) and so on.

Experience says: miners often move more dramatically than gold itself.

I’m never buying miners again. I don’t need the headache.

I have probably owned less than 10 individual stocks in my life. Thinking about it more, possibly 15.

A few of them were gold mining stocks. For some reason I held on to one of them. I bought it in the early 2000s. Finally sold it a few weeks ago for a loss.

[dualstow]

I look at ajpm dot com in the morning, and sometimes the spread is really tiny. Right now (7am EST), there’s like a US$15 difference between Bid and Ask. I guess I’ll buy some other day, then.

On the other hand, says that $15 is a normal spread during stable times. And, it turned me on to the Gold VIX (ticker ^GVZ), which I see is trending downward.

I’m sure GVZ has been mentioned, but it’s too small a search term.

[ppnewbie]

Here are some things I have heard recently that sound relevant but are probably just random:

Mines risk of being nationalized
Increased input costs of mining
Bad management

[boglerdude]

fredgraph.png (57.75 KiB) Viewed 16973 times

What happens next. If the treasury issues only 1 month bonds and the Fed buys them at 0% what happens to the long end.

And say money supply increasing 10%/year. Private market will want 13% long bond rates.

Is the Fed required to buy my long bonds on the market before they can buy anything "directly" from the treasury?

[ppnewbie]

fredgraph.pngWhat happens next. If the treasury issues only 1 month bonds and the Fed buys them at 0% what happens to the long end.

And say money supply increasing 10%/year. Private market will want 13% long bond rates.

Is the Fed required to buy my long bonds on the market before they can buy anything "directly" from the treasury?

Mmmm. Boglerdude been taken over by a bot? The message is kind of relevant but kind of not. Its a little vague. Just checking.

[boglerdude]

everything would feel different if gold was legal tender or there was something backed by gold. I think this would be a key step in restoring responsible behavior by banks

That's why it wont happen.

ps buy boglercoin

[pmbug]

I expect gold to trade past $3k in 2025 unless there is a catalyst for great upheaval (World War III, global financial crisis, etc.).

[Dieter]

If it performs how it's done every day so for in 2025, wouldn't be a bad return
(IAU up 1.37% every trading day through 1/2/2025 )

(although what that would say about the rest of the economy in 2025, ugh)

Hasn't done that well, but, damn it's doing well so far this year

[Jack Jones]

everything would feel different if gold was legal tender or there was something backed by gold. I think this would be a key step in restoring responsible behavior by banks

That's why it wont happen.

ps buy boglercoin

[pmbug]

I expect gold to trade past $3k in 2025 unless there is a catalyst for great upheaval (World War III, global financial crisis, etc.).

Mission accomplished.

[cerberusss]

Mission accomplished.

Well done, for sure.

[seajay]

everything would feel different if gold was legal tender or there was something backed by gold. I think this would be a key step in restoring responsible behavior by banks

That's why it wont happen.

ps buy boglercoin

Fiat enables fine adjustments to direct glide paths rather than slamming into a wall as occurs if a country spends all of its gold under a gold standard system.

What's the US markets sizes? Something like $68T stock value which if taxes of 33% are applied is in effect the state claiming ownership of a third of that value = $22.6T. US bond market $46T so a third = $15.3T. Combined $38T, and where recently the US debt ticked over to being $38T. There's also the 250 million ounces of gold which at £4100/oz market price = $1T, however its only on the books at £42/oz ($10Bn/value), as that provides the Fed with 4100/42 = 97x leverage factor (that can be rolled into London where the paper-gold ratio is north of 100x) for a combined 9700 leverage factor with which to defend the dollar, equivalent to 250 million ounces of gold x 9700 = more gold than in the world.

Under a gold standard with US deficit running at $1Tn/year then the marked to market $1Tn of gold value (250 million ounces of gold) would all have been spent (exported) within a year. Then what? Most likely ... wars.

Neither fiat or gold standards are ideal, both have flaws, fiat was good whilst the US was trustworthy and acted responsibly, but it forewent that by transitioning to exporting inflation, and then seizing/freezing (sanctions) and more recently by declaring economic war even against allies (tariffs) such that there is a broader (global) preference for transition back to a form of gold standard (alternative to the US dollar).

[welderwannabe]

Neither fiat or gold standards are ideal, both have flaws, fiat was good whilst the US was trustworthy and acted responsibly, but it forewent that by transitioning to exporting inflation, and then seizing/freezing (sanctions) and more recently by declaring economic war even against allies (tariffs) such that there is a broader (global) preference for transition back to a form of gold standard (alternative to the US dollar).

Amen my brotha