Predict 2026 winner

[coasting]

Just for fun.
I predict gold will be the 2026 winner. Despite the 63% gain last year, and the double digit gains for 2 years prior to that, it just feels like we are in store for more chaos, so have to bet on the chaos asset. Sticking to the 25% allocation though.

[frugal]

All winners

[dualstow]

All winners

I like the way you think

[I Shrugged]

When I used to buy sector funds, such as oil and gas, emerging markets, REIT, etc., I always wanted to buy whatever had been beaten down. It worked pretty well. That logic would have me picking LT bonds. But these aren't sectors in the PP, these are broad categories that seem to have long term momentum from global economic happenings. So I don't think it will be LT bonds.

One of these years we will have a crash.
I voted Cash.

Even if I take a more positive outlook, it is hard for me to see stocks and gold doing much. Especially stocks.

[Jack Jones]

I voted Cash.

Me too, however I have not put my money where my mouth is.

[Dieter]

If the year ended today, I'd be right!

(Gold)

Silver and BitCoin weren't options

[Smith1776]

Maybe 2026 will be a year where all risk assets crash simultaneously?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say cash.

[frugal]

If the year ended today, I'd be right!

(Gold)

Silver and BitCoin weren't options

3-5% on BITCOIN

I believe is a good choice

I missed 13 years of great rising

[Dieter]

If the year ended today, I'd be right!

(Gold)

Silver and BitCoin weren't options

3-5% on BITCOIN

I believe is a good choice

I missed 13 years of great rising

I'm working slowly to get there

Silver got itself there

[frugal]

If the year ended today, I'd be right!

(Gold)

Silver and BitCoin weren't options

3-5% on BITCOIN

I believe is a good choice

I missed 13 years of great rising

I'm working slowly to get there

Silver got itself there

Which % of silver you have ?

Is it part of PP?


Please comment

[Dieter]

If the year ended today, I'd be right!

(Gold)

Silver and BitCoin weren't options

3-5% on BITCOIN

I believe is a good choice

I missed 13 years of great rising

I'm working slowly to get there

Silver got itself there

Which % of silver you have ?

Is it part of PP?


Please comment

While I used to be more PP-esque, nowadays the main similarity is that I have Gold / think about things in a PP-ish way

For my allocation percentages, I do tend to include part of my emergency fund

Within that, I was targetting about 5%-6% across both Silver and Bitcoin (~15% Gold)

Silver is currently around 4.5%, including my > 50% gains in Silver ; Bitcoin at about 2.5% (down to only a 10% loss so far)

[coasting]

All winners

Actually that is fairly common! In the US for the 48 year period 1978 through 2025, all 4 assets have had positive nominal returns in 19 years (40% of the time) including last year: 1982,85-86,93,95; 2003-07,10-12,16-17,19-20,23,25

PP-AssetReturnsByYear.PNG (489.24 KiB) Viewed 614 times

[coasting]

Maybe 2026 will be a year where all risk assets crash simultaneously?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say cash.

You might say this is the "we're in an everything bubble" mode of thinking. It does kind of feel that way. In the US for the 48 year period 1978 through 2025, cash has been the winner in 5 years (10% of the time):

PP-AssetWinnerCounts.PNG (15.89 KiB) Viewed 608 times

CashWinnerYears.png (72.11 KiB) Viewed 608 times

[frugal]

All winners

Actually that is fairly common! In the US for the 48 year period 1978 through 2025, all 4 assets have had positive nominal returns in 19 years (40% of the time) including last year: 1982,85-86,93,95; 2003-07,10-12,16-17,19-20,23,25
PP-AssetReturnsByYear.PNG

Hello

What do you use as Cash ?


And where did you get these table?


Thanks

[coasting]

What do you use as Cash ?

And where did you get these table?

I use Money Market Funds for cash: either VUSXX, PRRXX, SNSXX, or GVIXX depending on what is available in each account. The data for the tables (columns 1 through 7) are from portfoliovisualizer.com, and the last 4 columns are calculated from the data using a spreadsheet.