Bitcoin in the VP

[dualstow]

What happens when Michael Saylor owns all the bitcoin?

[Smith1776]

I notice that as the price of his stock and bitcoin has gone down, he's become more unhinged in his interviews.

Interestingly, despite the incredible drop, the stock is still selling at a net asset value multiple of 1.19. It's hard to make the argument it's particularly undervalued.

[dualstow]

I saw him on Fox Biz yesterday and he seemed ok, but…I’m still afraid to buy in, even though I love the concept of using it as a medium of exchange.

[mathjak107]

just keep it very low as far as a percentage .

i keep it at about 1.50% of invested assets.

[dualstow]

just keep it very low as far as a percentage .

i keep it at about 1.50% of invested assets.

With your net worth, that's a lot of money!

[Smith1776]

My target allocation is 5%.

[mathjak107]

just keep it very low as far as a percentage .

i keep it at about 1.50% of invested assets.

With your net worth, that's a lot of money!

it’s enough to keep it interesting but not enough to really hurt

[frugal]

3% is the right number

very volatile!

only bitcoin

no shitcoins

which other assets can should we add to VP ?

Regards!

[mathjak107]

there are endless dr frankenstein versions of the pp tried over the years and the end results are that other assets are just to wishy washy and not strongly linked to specific outcomes

[dualstow]

Well, this is Vp

[Smith1776]

there are endless dr frankenstein versions of the pp tried over the years and the end results are that other assets are just to wishy washy and not strongly linked to specific outcomes

I feel called out LOL

[mathjak107]

there are endless dr frankenstein versions of the pp tried over the years and the end results are that other assets are just to wishy washy and not strongly linked to specific outcomes

I feel called out LOL

it’s like real estate as an example .

not only is it localized but if rates go up like we just had , most desirable areas went up except if they don’t

if rates go down like 2008 real estate went down .

2008 saw silver plunge with other commodities while gold went up


energy has been a mixed bag

so very few assets actually couple themselves fairly reliably to economic outcomes

[seajay]

3% is the right number

very volatile!

only bitcoin

no shitcoins

which other assets can should we add to VP ?

Regards!

The PP was devised as a potentially safer alternative to T-Bills

Expectations :

Stock share prices broadly compare to inflation
Gold price broadly compares to inflation
Hard cash lags inflation, but with stock dividends added compares to inflation

If instead of hard cash we deposit those safely into T-Bills that adds to expected rewards.

Thirds stock/gold/cash (T-Bills) might broadly exceed inflation, support the return of your inflation adjusted money via 25 year 4% SWR.

Instead of 33% stock, holding 11% in a 3x stock fund, or combination of such funds, where bitcoin might be considered as fitting into that group. With some rounding, 10% in 3x stock, 30% gold, 60% T-Bills, where the 10% 3x might be held as 2.5% in each of bitcoin, SPXL (3x S&P500), TQQQ (3x QQQ) and MIDU (3x midcap stock). Collectively a diverse set of individual stocks/sectors. Rebalance once/year (so if any of the 3x holdings do endure bad times the downside loss is capped).

i.png (65.7 KiB) Viewed 397 times

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... KkEuKgvFmR

[dualstow]

which other assets can should we add to VP ?

frugal, there’s no asset that you should add. You add what you want. It’s money that you can afford to lose.
Anything I buy that is not a pp asset, I consider part of the Vp. Individual stocks, silver coins.

[frugal]

3% is the right number

very volatile!

only bitcoin

no shitcoins

which other assets can should we add to VP ?

Regards!

The PP was devised as a potentially safer alternative to T-Bills

Expectations :

Stock share prices broadly compare to inflation
Gold price broadly compares to inflation
Hard cash lags inflation, but with stock dividends added compares to inflation

If instead of hard cash we deposit those safely into T-Bills that adds to expected rewards.

Thirds stock/gold/cash (T-Bills) might broadly exceed inflation, support the return of your inflation adjusted money via 25 year 4% SWR.

Instead of 33% stock, holding 11% in a 3x stock fund, or combination of such funds, where bitcoin might be considered as fitting into that group. With some rounding, 10% in 3x stock, 30% gold, 60% T-Bills, where the 10% 3x might be held as 2.5% in each of bitcoin, SPXL (3x S&P500), TQQQ (3x QQQ) and MIDU (3x midcap stock). Collectively a diverse set of individual stocks/sectors. Rebalance once/year (so if any of the 3x holdings do endure bad times the downside loss is capped).

i.png
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... KkEuKgvFmR

Hello

Where did you find that portfolio ?

Very smart …

Can you test without bitcoin and during the maximum data you have available?

All the best !

[frugal]

which other assets can should we add to VP ?

frugal, there’s no asset that you should add. You add what you want. It’s money that you can afford to lose.
Anything I buy that is not a pp asset, I consider part of the Vp. Individual stocks, silver coins.

Hi

I don’t want to lose

PP performance inflation adjusted in the last 20-30 years is 4%?

The SWR is about 3-4% so it lasts forever?


Regards

[seajay]

3% is the right number

very volatile!

only bitcoin

no shitcoins

which other assets can should we add to VP ?

Regards!

The PP was devised as a potentially safer alternative to T-Bills

Expectations :

Stock share prices broadly compare to inflation
Gold price broadly compares to inflation
Hard cash lags inflation, but with stock dividends added compares to inflation

If instead of hard cash we deposit those safely into T-Bills that adds to expected rewards.

Thirds stock/gold/cash (T-Bills) might broadly exceed inflation, support the return of your inflation adjusted money via 25 year 4% SWR.

Instead of 33% stock, holding 11% in a 3x stock fund, or combination of such funds, where bitcoin might be considered as fitting into that group. With some rounding, 10% in 3x stock, 30% gold, 60% T-Bills, where the 10% 3x might be held as 2.5% in each of bitcoin, SPXL (3x S&P500), TQQQ (3x QQQ) and MIDU (3x midcap stock). Collectively a diverse set of individual stocks/sectors. Rebalance once/year (so if any of the 3x holdings do endure bad times the downside loss is capped).

i.png
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... KkEuKgvFmR

Hello

Where did you find that portfolio ?

Very smart …

Can you test without bitcoin and during the maximum data you have available?

All the best !

US data : 60% T-Bills, 30% gold (silver pre 1970), 10% 3x (S&P500) stock, yearly rebalanced

i.png (212.23 KiB) Viewed 333 times

Japan since the 1950's (US 3x stock, Japanese cash, gold (silver pre 1970) and similar for the UK (since 1930's) also had good results.

ULPIX is a 2x fund with actual data back to 1998, comparing 10% in 3x (60% cash) with 15% in 2x (55% cash) [both having 30% gold] since SPXL (3x) has data available and the two compared closely, so reflecting that back to 1998

i2.png (12.04 KiB) Viewed 327 times

6x nominal gain factor (6.6% annualized)

[frugal]

3% is the right number

very volatile!

only bitcoin

no shitcoins

which other assets can should we add to VP ?

Regards!

The PP was devised as a potentially safer alternative to T-Bills

Expectations :

Stock share prices broadly compare to inflation
Gold price broadly compares to inflation
Hard cash lags inflation, but with stock dividends added compares to inflation

If instead of hard cash we deposit those safely into T-Bills that adds to expected rewards.

Thirds stock/gold/cash (T-Bills) might broadly exceed inflation, support the return of your inflation adjusted money via 25 year 4% SWR.

Instead of 33% stock, holding 11% in a 3x stock fund, or combination of such funds, where bitcoin might be considered as fitting into that group. With some rounding, 10% in 3x stock, 30% gold, 60% T-Bills, where the 10% 3x might be held as 2.5% in each of bitcoin, SPXL (3x S&P500), TQQQ (3x QQQ) and MIDU (3x midcap stock). Collectively a diverse set of individual stocks/sectors. Rebalance once/year (so if any of the 3x holdings do endure bad times the downside loss is capped).

i.png
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... KkEuKgvFmR

Hello

Where did you find that portfolio ?

Very smart …

Can you test without bitcoin and during the maximum data you have available?

All the best !

US data : 60% T-Bills, 30% gold (silver pre 1970), 10% 3x (S&P500) stock, yearly rebalanced

i.png

Japan since the 1950's (US 3x stock, Japanese cash, gold (silver pre 1970) and similar for the UK (since 1930's) also had good results.

ULPIX is a 2x fund with actual data back to 1998, comparing 10% in 3x (60% cash) with 15% in 2x (55% cash) [both having 30% gold] since SPXL (3x) has data available and the two compared closely, so reflecting that back to 1998
i2.png
6x nominal gain factor (6.6% annualized)

Hi

Which one you use ?

Leveraging?

Regards

[seajay]

Which one you use ?

Leveraging?

USD trading currency choice. 3USL (trades in USD) instead of 3LUS (that trades in GBP) for instance. Rebalancing the FX element once/year rather than daily adjustments is inclined to be better IMO.