In the 1974 You Can Profit From A Monetary Crisis, the man who taught you not to trust prognosticators, predicted (gold was around $100):
Harry Browne wrote:There's really no way to determine the upside potential of gold, but a conservative estimate would be $300-$500 per ounce within five years - and possibly even within a year. It wouldn't shock me if it reached $1,000 per ounce within five years - even without runaway inflation.
It had recently gone up 3x, but Harry predicted it had another 3-5x to go. It topped out around $670 six years later.
We sit at $5000, which is about a 1-2x run up. How much more runway do we have?
It's not terribly meaningful to ask for a prediction of the top without giving either a timeframe or a definition of how much lower it must go than its record for that record to be considered a top.
Jack Jones wrote: ↑Thu Feb 19, 2026 9:14 am
In the 1974 You Can Profit From A Monetary Crisis, the man who taught you not to trust prognosticators, predicted (gold was around $100):
Harry Browne wrote:There's really no way to determine the upside potential of gold, but a conservative estimate would be $300-$500 per ounce within five years - and possibly even within a year. It wouldn't shock me if it reached $1,000 per ounce within five years - even without runaway inflation.
It had recently gone up 3x, but Harry predicted it had another 3-5x to go. It topped out around $670 six years later.
We sit at $5000, which is about a 1-2x run up. How much more runway do we have?
I had that book.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Xan wrote: ↑Thu Feb 19, 2026 9:40 pm
It's not terribly meaningful to ask for a prediction of the top without giving either a timeframe or a definition of how much lower it must go than its record for that record to be considered a top.
Yet 9 out of 10 humans can agree that $670 was a top w/out further clarification.
A year ago I read the case for Trump doing some kind of monetary reset involving a monetary use for gold. Weaker dollar, tariffs, etc. I think it said that gold would have to be $10,000 for it all to make sense. So that is what I voted.
