Gyroscopic Investing

I just finished watching the Joe Rogan podcast last night featuring Michael Osterholm, who is a legitimate public health scientist. Gist? We should be taking this fairly seriously and not saying "It's just the flu, bro." (Not that I'm implying anyone here is saying that.)

My take is that this threat is reminiscent of the threat by AI enunciated by Elon musk. It's exponential growth. And exponential growth when viewed up close and especially near the origin looks linear. So, the threat doesn't look quite so intimidating. But a few hops out from the origin and it's huge.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:16 pm I just finished watching the Joe Rogan podcast last night featuring Michael Osterholm, who is a legitimate public health scientist. Gist? We should be taking this fairly seriously and not saying "It's just the flu, bro." (Not that I'm implying anyone here is saying that.)

My take is that this threat is reminiscent of the threat by AI enunciated by Elon musk. It's exponential growth. And exponential growth when viewed up close and especially near the origin looks linear. So, the threat doesn't look quite so intimidating. But a few hops out from the origin and it's huge.

Agreed. People look at absolute numbers instead of percent moves. People think linearly instead of exponentially. At this point anyone can point to absolute numbers and make them sound small. But when you look at them in percentage moves it's shocking. But, very quickly that bias reverses (we will arrive at this point in the next week or two), and those absolute numbers go from looking small to HOLY &%#!

Maddy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:08 pm This just fries me. Not only have researchers and journalists been put under a CDC gag order, but the White House is now classifying its top-level discussions regarding CoVID-19.

Together with FASAB 56, which made it impossible to determine the whereabouts of the trillions in DOD and HUD funds that have been shuttled out the back door, you've got to wonder if we're still living in a constitutional republic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20Y2LM

You're just starting to wonder about that now?

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:12 pm You're just starting to wonder about that now?

Ha! Up to now, corruption in government has been mostly hidden, which in a strange, roundabout way is at least an acknowledgement that the rules still apply. Now, it's the "new normal."

Breaking: Italy has shut down all businesses country wide except necessities (pharmacies, grocery, banks, etc).

Kept my kid home from preschool today and for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately my wife is going about her life, business as usual. At any rate, a week from now things will be looking much different, for better or worse.

Jack Jones wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:10 pm Kept my kid home from preschool today and for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately my wife is going about her life, business as usual. At any rate, a week from now things will be looking much different, for better or worse.

I concur. I think Washington is in denial as to how bad this could get. If they don't step up their game the medical system could be facing a catastrophe before the end of the month. China appears to have gotten a grip on things, but only by imposing the most drastic measures. Italy looks to be adopting the Chinese plan.

I haven't finished listening to the public health interview on Joe Rogan, but a couple of the key points I've heard so far:

• COVID-19 spreads not just through touch and fluids, but through breath. Even before symptoms appear, the concentration of COVID-19 virus in people's throats is ~10,000x higher than the concentration seen in people with the flu (!!). They spread the virus by breathing.
• The virus is probably here to stay, just like the flu; its spread will probably slow down only after a majority of the population catches it and builds up immunity.

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:22 am Big crimey city in the Northeast, like WiseOne
---
Merkel says 60-70% of Germans will be infected.
That's a lotta Germans.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/coronav ... dates.html

I wonder what had prior given me the impression that you lived in Florida. Had you once lived there?

Vinny

Jack Jones wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:10 pm Kept my kid home from preschool today and for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately my wife is going about her life, business as usual. At any rate, a week from now things will be looking much different, for better or worse.

+1. Most of the couples I know comprise a wife who is stocking up on rice and Purell and a husband who's rolling his eyes, but there are a few converse instances. And it seems like the tide is turning toward stocking up and being extra careful with the kids.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:48 pm I wonder what had prior given me the impression that you lived in Florida. Had you once lived there?

I've never lived there, but I do spend time there once or twice every year.

Notre Dame today:

Notre Dame President Rev. John I. Jenkins, C.S.C., on March 11, directed that all in-person classes be suspended beginning Monday, March 23 through at least April 13, and replaced with virtual instruction and other alternative options. There will be no classes of any format the week of March 15 to allow faculty to make adjustments. All University-sponsored study abroad programs have been suspended, with our students and U.S.-based faculty and staff returning home safely as soon as possible.

Went to Stop & Shop tonight.

While walking in the parking lot towards the store I saw a woman walking out. All she had purchased was what looked like two packages of toilet paper. It did not look like that much more than the 11 rolls I have sill left in inventory from when I last bought toilet paper a few years ago.

While I was walking into the store, I saw prominently displayed in a bin hand soap.

There were not that many people in the store and there were plenty of shopping carts available (this was about 6 PM).

I decided to do one of my periodic huge cat food can purchases.

I had them and my food purchases all laid out to be checked out as soon as the cashier finished with the person ahead of me.

I looked back and there was a woman with a few items in a hand basket. I told her to go ahead, telling her "You do not want to be behind me when I'm doing a cat food purchase." Then another guy appeared with a small amount. Sent him ahead. Then another with a similar handful of things he was buying. Sent him ahead of me. With all three of those people I did not notice any "virus" purchasing. I just bought all my normal purchases. Nothing for the "virus".

And, if things continue to worse I realize that it's a blessing to be such a super introvert. I can easily go five days with zero human contact, including no talking to anyone on the phone. I am, though, during that time interacting with people via a variety of online means (like here).

Vinny

I really wonder what we are going to get from Trump's press conference on his Corona virus plan tonight?

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:01 pm
And, if things continue to worse I realize that it's a blessing to be such a super introvert. I can easily go five days with zero human contact, including no talking to anyone on the phone. I am, though, during that time interacting with people via a variety of online means (like here).

I'm the same. I was avoiding people long before they had a risk of infecting me, hahaha. Some people at work are bummed we are likely the next location to be told to work from home indefinitely seeing as how Ducey just declared state of emergency for AZ today. Me, I'm like, why can't we make this a permanent thing???

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:03 pm I really wonder what we are going to get from Trump's press conference on his Corona virus plan tonight?

What would you expect from a self-proclaimed "very stable genius" and who has this person in his family tree?

"John Trump, Donald Trump’s paternal uncle, was a brilliant MIT scientist whose work involved X-rays and World War II radar research."


Vinny

Some things that may have not been mentioned: homeless people are particularly vulnerable to the spread of this thing.

And, people in displacement camps and other temporary setups: screwed if the virus comes their way.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:01 pmAnd, if things continue to worse I realize that it's a blessing to be such a super introvert. I can easily go five days with zero human contact, including no talking to anyone on the phone. I am, though, during that time interacting with people via a variety of online means (like here).

Let's hear it for introverts! I've been joking about that with some people, facetiously saying, "I don't know how I'm ever going to adjust to this lifestyle of staying home, spending time online and watching Netflix." And also, "More people are going to be staying home, and washing their hands when they're out. My dream is coming true!" Not to make light of those who are affected, naturally. I'm talking about the healthy (for now) majority.

That said, I'm joining a bunch of friends for our weekly Thursday dinner out. Probably the last one for a long time. One's in education, another's been traveling... I'd better not sit too close.

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:18 pm Some things that may have not been mentioned: homeless people are particularly vulnerable to the spread of this thing.

And, people in displacement camps and other temporary setups: screwed if the virus comes their way.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:01 pmAnd, if things continue to worse I realize that it's a blessing to be such a super introvert. I can easily go five days with zero human contact, including no talking to anyone on the phone. I am, though, during that time interacting with people via a variety of online means (like here).

Let's hear it for introverts! I've been joking about that with some people, facetiously saying, "I don't know how I'm ever going to adjust to this lifestyle of staying home, spending time online and watching Netflix." And also, "More people are going to be staying home, and washing their hands when they're out. My dream is coming true!" Not to make light of those who are affected, naturally. I'm talking about the healthy (for now) majority.

That said, I'm joining a bunch of friends for our weekly Thursday dinner out. Probably the last one for a long time. One's in education, another's been traveling... I'd better not sit too close.

In general, 18 of us show up each night to play basketball. We are all touching that same basketball. Seems like the nearest reported case to me so far is 50-90 miles away?

Vinny

Reported case. Does that really mean anything?

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:33 pm Reported case. Does that really mean anything?

Again, I'm a 100% non-medical person. But I would think it would be as I assume the more reported cases there are in a given area the more spread we'd see emanating from that area.

Vinny

I totally f***ing give up.

As colleges are closing down in a desperate effort to contain the spread of CoVid-19, students are heading out of the country in droves on "dream vacations."

Ashley Henkel, 20, told NBC News that cheap flights across North America have allowed her to fulfill her dream of traveling across the country. When asked about Covid-19, she responded, "Whatever."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-i- ... ss-america

You know, every time a millennial whines about "the world they're leaving us," I think to myself, "You deserve the world you're getting."

Just saw this.
Am I correct in believing that this virus is causing the greatest disruption to the greatest amount of our populace and normal life since World War II?

9/11, of course, was major. But I seem to remember that baseball was shut down for a week as were the financial markets and plane travel. And, once it was realized the attack was confined to that day, things went fairly back to normal. The only way I was affected was that I could not watch baseball games this week.

Now we have something more akin to a war. A war that will be of indeterminate length with no end in sight. And, even worse, how do we know when we have won this "war"? Viruses don't unconditionally surrender, do they?

Vinny

Maddy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:38 pm I totally f***ing give up.

As colleges are closing down in a desperate effort to contain the spread of CoVid-19, students are heading out of the country in droves on "dream vacations."

Ashley Henkel, 20, told NBC News that cheap flights across North America have allowed her to fulfill her dream of traveling across the country. When asked about Covid-19, she responded, "Whatever."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-i- ... ss-america

You know, every time a millennial whines about "the world they're leaving us," I think to myself, "You deserve the world you're getting."

That age group comprise many of the carriers. They may fully have the virus yet show zero symptoms. No one under a certain age in China or Japan has yet died.

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:42 pm Now we have something more akin to a war. A war that will be of indeterminate length with no end in sight. And, even worse, how do we know when we have won this "war"?

I'm guessing we win the "war" when herd immunity is established either through a vaccine, or when a sufficiently large fraction of the population catches COVID-19 and gets over it.

Tom Hanks has it. First (non-Iranian politician) famous case?

Is this the next Black Swan that we've all been waiting for? Is it too early to call?

It's funny how everyone over the past few years was poring over our financial markets looking for the next 2008. But of course, history doesn't repeat itself, it just rhymes.

Trump just suspended travel from Europe (except for the UK) for the next 30 days. The cracks are starting to show, guys.