If you could only buy one stock for the next 20 years...

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

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MediumTex
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Re: If you could only buy one stock for the next 20 years...

Post by MediumTex »

I am currently working on a new dish called the "Sloppy Dog", which is shredded barbecue meat served inside a hot dog bun.

I can't believe no one has thought of it before.
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Storm
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Re: If you could only buy one stock for the next 20 years...

Post by Storm »

MediumTex wrote: I am currently working on a new dish called the "Sloppy Dog", which is shredded barbecue meat served inside a hot dog bun.

I can't believe no one has thought of it before.
Sounds good, but it might be almost the same as a pulled-pork sandwich in a hot dog bun, or a philly cheese-steak.  You're making me hungry now!
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Jan Van
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Re: If you could only buy one stock for the next 20 years...

Post by Jan Van »

That "Double Down Sandwich" looks like good Paleo or Primal or Neo-Atkins food to me!


To be more on-topic... what about Abbott Laboratories ABT?
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brajalle
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Re: If you could only buy one stock for the next 20 years...

Post by brajalle »

My personal feeling is to avoid any consumer product company that relies on brand names to generate product premiums.  I've had the feeling for awhile that the drive for consumers to purchase brand names is on the decline and will only accelerate, leaving those consumer product companies at the mercy of companies who can make their product lines into generic products cheaply and without the name brand premium (ie marketing & profit premiums).  Think the generic name brands at Krogers, and how Wal-Mart has the Great Value brand (which has been eroding name brand shelf space in the store for some time).  Personally I'd avoid P&G, Kraft, etc for those reasons.  Not that they may not be profitable, but I'd seek growth elsewhere.

Anything revolving around energy is a great long term bet (20-30 years) IMO, I'd just hunt for the ones with good management, low debt, and acceptable P&E ratio (honestly the BP thing was the deal of a lifetime - sorta like GE when it hit $10/share a few years ago).  Another decent bet I'd see is railroads, they're just remarkably consistent and low-cost mass transportation will only become more important as energy prices go up.  Health care is another constant, less so pharmaceuticals, and more so insurance and nursing/home/etc care providers.  I'd steer away from finance, construction, defense, and manufacturing (with the possible exception of GE).  Some strong points are western exportable experiences - McDonalds is a good example, Coca Cola, perhaps Pizza Hut (god their pizza is horrible) and Subway as well.  Some other areas of potential are anything around foodstuffs or bioag/seeds/etc.  Companies dealing with water supply to the west, SW, and south are hidden gems as well IMO the next few decades, as well as power suppliers in the LV area. 

There's alot of tech stocks, but ARM is indeed a great buy, while the person discussing the technical merits of ARM vs x86 cpu's may have some incorrect conclusions IMO about the advantages of ARM vs. x86, he is correct about them appearing everywhere.  Likewise, telecommunications is always profitable, and as much as I think they're evil, I forsee Verizon as a solid long-term buy - they simply have great network coverage, a robust LTE rollout coming, great profits, good spectrum range, and great spectrum frequencies.  Our data consumption will only grow.  I forsee massive problems with AT&T/T-Mobile - AT&T's proclivity to get exclusives will diminish as the importance of GSM phones over CDMA for worldwide sales diminishes, they'll have ALOT of merger challenges and have shown some major issues in managing their network.  I also forsee an eventual shift from wired internet to LTE wireless, and AT&Ts heavier position in wired areas (ie UVERSE internet & tv) will be a drag.  Sprint will be a crapshoot, I really want to like them given their spectrum rights, data capacity, and ability to capitalize on AT&T/Verizon issues in the future, but they've shown some poor management, issues with what should be robust expansion, potential issues with having the capital for future investments, and their lack of a clear plan for moving to LTE (let's face it, it's the only real choice) and expanding their network coverage.  I don't see cable companies as a place to be, they'll have issues.  Dish Network is an interesting choice, as I see them and their upcoming Blockbuster online streaming service as a potential bombshell and acquisition target from larger communications companies to compete against Netflix especially when bundled with mobile entertainment.  They may not be flashy, but the sat companies have managed to keep their costs in check while avoiding expensive infrastructure issues faced by cable co's - they may survive the wireless & streaming age intact, and Dish has made a keen gamble with Blockbuster.
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