Misc. U.S. Elections

[yankees60]

Biden too, right?

From HERE you are CORRECT!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_Uni ... s_Congress

The 117th United States Congress was a meeting of the legislative branch of the United States federal government, composed of the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives. It convened in Washington, D.C., on January 3, 2021, during the final weeks of Donald Trump's first presidency and the first two years of Joe Biden's presidency and ended on January 3, 2023.

The 2020 elections decided control of both chambers. In the House of Representatives, the Democratic Party retained their majority, albeit reduced from the 116th Congress. It was similar in size to the majority held by the Republican Party during the 83rd Congress (1953–1955).

In the Senate, Republicans briefly held the majority at the start; however, on January 20, 2021, three new Democratic senators – Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Alex Padilla of California – were sworn in, resulting in 50 seats held by Republicans, 48 seats held by Democrats, and two held by independents who caucus with the Democrats. Effectively, this created a 50–50 split, which had not occurred since the 107th Congress in 2001. This was only the third time in U.S. history that the Senate had been evenly split, and the longest-lasting one ever.[1][2]

The new senators were sworn into office by Vice President Kamala Harris, just hours after her inauguration. With Harris serving as the tie breaker in her constitutional role as President of the Senate, Democrats gained control of the Senate, and thereby full control of Congress for the first time since the 111th Congress ended in 2011. Additionally, with the inauguration of Joe Biden as president that same day, Democrats assumed control of the executive branch as well, attaining an overall federal government trifecta, also for the first time since the 111th Congress.

Despite Democrats holding thin majorities in both chambers during a period of intense political polarization, the 117th Congress oversaw the passage of numerous significant bills,[3][4] including the Inflation Reduction Act, American Rescue Plan Act, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Postal Service Reform Act, Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, CHIPS and Science Act, Honoring Our PACT Act, Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act, and Respect for Marriage Act.[4]

[yankees60]

Everyone here is missing who are the true masters of the US Government... and of all people, those of you who own 25% long bonds in your portfolios!

The true masters are the Bond Vigilantes. Have you all forgotten UK PM Liz Truss? That was only two years ago. How quickly we forget.

I think a similar process would happen in the USA under any R or D President, but I think the pace will be faster with unified government, all one party, because bills will speed through the leg process and become law.

When the massive required Treasury issuance becomes apparent, then the true masters will reveal themselves.

Moody's has said a few days ago they might downgrade US Treasuries if financial conditions worsen. It makes me wonder... would the far-right GOP want to default to "own the bond vigilantes"? Just like Nixon wanted to "own the French" when he took the US off the gold standard on 8/15/1971?

You can never own the bond market. Politicians think 0-dimensionally or 1-dimensionally at most with their emotional lizard brains, but there are more degrees of freedom in the Impossibility Trinity.

Maybe no longer?

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/a ... s-42f8167d

America’s Debt Problem Is Too Big for the Bond Vigilantes

Surging deficits and bond yields create an opening, but investors are likely to take a painful hit this time

[I Shrugged]

If it wasn't a landslide, it was at least a rock slide, the kind that tears up US Hwy 101 in California every so often.

The House margin being so slim, every interim election for a vacant seat will become a battle royale, unless it's a deep red or blue district.

[I Shrugged]

How much "Resistance" will there be this time? Will it be a normal opposition or will it be like 2016? I don't expect the opposition people in powerful DC positions to go quietly. But this time they don't have the House to bring an impeachment about nothing, as they did for his policy about Ukraine, under the guise of phone call malfeasance. And "Russia" has no traction. I wonder what's coming.

Hopefully the firing of a lot of neocons and other political hacks at the FBI, Justice, State, etc. Just as I admired him for putting and end to the career of the horrible Hillary, I hope I can see more of the same from cleaning out those departments. I don't want him to replace them with Republican hacks, but we will have to see.

As far as the economy, good luck.

[glennds]

Biden too, right?

Correct; for the first part of his term (117th Congress).

Here is a good list of Presidencies that shows unified versus divided Congress.
It's interesting - https://history.house.gov/Institution/P ... overnment/

LBJ had a unified Congress which maybe explains why he was able to get as much of his Great Society legislation through. Although I remember reading that he had to overcome more opposition from Southern "Dixiecrats" than he had to overcome from Republicans.

Unified government and the functioning of political parties in prior years probably means something different than what we are about to have in January.

[boglerdude]

The banks must buy unsold treasuries. Yield curve control. Whats worrying is if the Fed wants the 30 year at 2%, but they bypass the market aka us here trying to sell. eg Chase buys new treasuries at 2% then the Fed buys them from Chase. I dunno the mechanisms but in 2020 the Fed set up more "special purpose vehicles" to get around the law and buy corporate bonds.