Jack Bogle: Private Commodity ETFs Are Risky

[HB Reader]

It's far more likely that the government will send people to freeze all safe deposit boxes than a professional bank robber will steal it from there.

...and even that didn't happen in the 1930s. When gold ownership was illegal, the order to turn in gold was basically voluntary (people were also still allowed to own very small volumes of gold bullion). Most people shipped their gold stashes out of the country before the order took place. There was no Gold police seizing everyone's safe deposit boxes. Not to say it can't happen though...

And, if I'm not mistaken, ownership of gold outside the United States by US persons wasn't specifically prohibited until 1961.

[moda0306]

I just can't wrap my head around things like prohibition, internment of Japanese, and gold confiscation actually having been done in the 20th century United States.  It seems to me that these things would NEVER fly today.

[Lone Wolf]

I just can't wrap my head around things like prohibition, internment of Japanese, and gold confiscation actually having been done in the 20th century United States.  It seems to me that these things would NEVER fly today.

I agree.  Regardless of how awful imperial Japan was (and it truly was awful), the internment of Japanese Americans seems like an appalling measure from today's perspective.

Note that I do not draw any moral equivalence between this and the truly abominable things that the Axis powers did throughout Europe and Asia.  Still, it's a troubling part of our history.

It's cause for hope, though, that these things are generally (though not unanimously) viewed as having been Bad Ideas today.

[craigr]

I just can't wrap my head around things like prohibition, internment of Japanese, and gold confiscation actually having been done in the 20th century United States.  It seems to me that these things would NEVER fly today.

I agree. The government today is much more technologically advanced and can do all sorts of crazy new horrible things instead.

And BTW, we still operate secret prisons where people are put on boards with water and I don't mean the surfing kind.



Any govt. can do absolutely tyrannical things if the conditions are right. FDR was just a taste. He also locked people in prison for selling chicken too cheaply.

The reason why I can see a confiscation of gold again is if there was something truly awful happening with the dollar. Something so bad that the people in charge were looking to seize gold as a strategic asset to do business with other countries because they wouldn't take our paper. But the govt. would almost certainly seize the commodity warehouses first because it would be easiest to do.

[moda0306]

craigr,

I could see that if our gov't didn't have so much gold to begin with.

It seems to me that they have all the insurance they need to combat out-of-control inflation.  Instead of the fed selling bonds back into the market to soak up money supply, our gov't could sell some of its gold.

[craigr]

craigr,

I could see that if our gov't didn't have so much gold to begin with.

It seems to me that they have all the insurance they need to combat out-of-control inflation.  Instead of the fed selling bonds back into the market to soak up money supply, our gov't could sell some of its gold.

I don't think there is enough gold in govt. possession to have a meaningful impact on the dollars in circulation. IMO.

[jackely]

I just can't wrap my head around things like prohibition, internment of Japanese, and gold confiscation actually having been done in the 20th century United States.  It seems to me that these things would NEVER fly today.

Maybe the madness wouldn't come in the same forms as the 20th century but I think all you have to do is observe the "Occupy Wall Street" protesters to wrap your head around what mass psychosis might bring us in this one. During times of societal breakdown I think all bets are off. I hate to sound like Glenn Beck but from observing that movement I am ready to conclude that the death of one of the previous centuries very great evils might have been greatly exaggerated. That would be Marxism.

I don't see gold being confiscated but I bet most of us on this forum are "hoarding" 401k's.

[craigr]

I don't see gold being confiscated but I bet most of us on this forum are "hoarding" 401k's.

Oh yes. Democracy is wonderful when 51% of people can vote for the money of the other 49%.

Don't be surprised if Social Security is reduced/eliminated for people that saved too much on their own. Or, even worse, a wealth tax implemented wholesale to pay for more spending.

Confiscation can come in many forms. The other role of having some money outside where you live is just in case things get so bad you need to write off what you built here and start again someplace else.

[murphy_p_t]

Craig,

what % of your PP do you feel is suitable to hold overseas in the current climate?

If more than 25% (most all of the gold), what strategies are useful for holding the other asset classes?