Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by smurff »

rickb wrote: If the US government wants your gold, it doesn't need to pass any "windfall profit tax".  The way FDR did it in the 30's was much more direct.  Sell your gold to the US government now, or face severe penalties.  See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102.
There were so many exemptions then that many people did not have to turn over their gold.

If the gov wants to accumulate physical gold because world currencies are being linked to it, yes, I can see them confiscating gold under some scenarios that have IMO a low probability of occurring.  But if they want to discourage people from accumulating physical gold, then the windfall profits tax makes sense.  People will figure out ways to avoid paying it, but the gov will have made it's point.

There is nothing happening right now that would lead me to think any of this would happen, but what might happen tomorrow is another story.
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

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Posted by: craigr
"Not being able to leave is the exact reason why you want money somewhere else. Any country that is not allowing citizens to leave is one you need to leave immediately in any way possible. That story always has a bad ending and having gold overseas is your safety net to start over.
It's funny because I mention this exact thing in the book. This attitude of keeping everything in one country is very American (or even Canadian?). But if you speak to people that live in places like Latin America or even Europe the attitude is much different. In those places, due to their history, many people think keeping some money elsewhere is a really good idea. But the US has had no major conflict on its soil in over 150 years and the dollar has been relatively stable and trouble free. I think in a way the memory of these kind of disasters and sometimes needing to flee in an emergency has been lost. To other cultures that have been through these events more recently having assets geographically diversified is seen as a prudent maneuver. "

I think you make some good points
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

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craigr wrote: The idea is not just for government taking things. IMO that is the lowest on the list. However the more probable is perhaps a manmade or natural disaster that affects the financial center of the US. Wall St. was shut for five days after 9/11. During WWI it was shut for months. So talk about not being able to get access to funds, that's it right there! If you have money in a foreign country you will still be able to get access to it in most likelihood.
The manmade or natural disaster is the lowest on my list, I guess. In these cases, I would not want to have to leave the country and I would not want to have to go to one specific place to access funds, especially for something that lasted for days to a few months. I would want a store of physical gold and cash in my hands, and I would want enough food around to get me through the crisis should I wish to stay put.

The primary reason why one holds gold overseas, IMO, is in the event of gold confiscation or if things turn so bad that you want to permanently leave your country.  For many, the remote benefits of setting up something like HB originally intended (if still possible) may not outweigh the difficulty involved.

I guess that some gold in a Canada bank safe deposit box for those who live close to Canada might be doable. And Perth Mint allocated gold might be another choice. We should just remember that these might not be pure "HB approved" options.
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by tooearly »

No mention of goldmoney or bullionvault in this usage?
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

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tooearly wrote: No mention of goldmoney or bullionvault in this usage?
Don't like them. Likely riskier than ETFs. IMO.

Specifically, bullionvault you can't exchange for physical metal so no help there. Secondly they allow you to trade internally and this has an air of e-gold around it. e-gold was shut down a few years back because some people were using it for various criminal activity. Not saying this is happening at bullionvault, just that the parallels are there for it to be a problem.

goldmoney is OK I guess. But they are incorporated in the Isle of Jersey. It is unclear to me what direct recourse an investor would have if something were to go very wrong with them.

IMO. You get all the exposure of ETFs without the benefits of more direct control. Plus you pick up some more risks in terms of legal protections that are well established for securities like ETFs, but seem very murky for these services.
Last edited by craigr on Sun Feb 12, 2012 3:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by 6 Iron »

craigr wrote:
Don't like them. Likely riskier than ETFs. IMO.

Specifically, bullionvault you can't exchange for physical metal so no help there.
Actually, you can exchange for physical metal, but there are plenty of hurdles, and a charge of  2.5 % for 400 oz bars, and 5% for smaller allocations (for the rest of us). They may or may not be riskier than ETF's, but they have different risks. I use them for about 10% of my gold allocation, and have been quite pleased. YMMV. I would be interested in hearing more from those using Perth Mint, as that sounds interesting.

That said, I am another strong proponent of physical possession.
tooearly

Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by tooearly »

not sure what you man  they allow you to trade internally? That was NOT the problem with egold as I recall, and I know goldmoney does not allow this any longer if they ever did. Not sure why you think they are riskier than perth mint. And you yourself mentioned geographic diversification as the reason to look at perth mint, which both of these accomplish.

I think your answer deserves some more thought .Not saying you are wrong, but you have not made a cogent case, given the reason for this discussion was geographic diversification. In what way is Perth superior to either of these specifically?
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

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tooearly wrote: not sure what you man  they allow you to trade internally? That was NOT the problem with egold as I recall, and I know goldmoney does not allow this any longer if they ever did. Not sure why you think they are riskier than perth mint. And you yourself mentioned geographic diversification as the reason to look at perth mint, which both of these accomplish.
I don't think they offer anything over an ETF like SGOL or PHYS that stores gold outside the US.

Bullionvault, from my understanding, allows trading of gold (or the value of the gold) between clients directly inside their system. In this way it has some e-gold like attributes. I'm not saying it is a bad thing, just that it could provide an excuse for authorities that doesn't exist for people trading ETFs on the open market between each other.

Gold money is better in this regard and doesn't allow it.
I think your answer deserves some more thought .Not saying you are wrong, but you have not made a cogent case, given the reason for this discussion was geographic diversification. In what way is Perth superior to either of these specifically?
I've thought a lot about it. The reality is that these ETFs or gold services that store gold in places like Zürich do so at the exact same vaults (VIA MAT located in the tax free zone near the airport most likely). Even Global Gold does the same. The only difference really is the name wrapped around the service. Whether it's an ETF, gold service like Gold Money/Bullion Vault or true Swiss based service like Global Gold. So they all have the same risks on the gold vault side of things overall.

What matters then is the structure of the products and how you are protected as an owner of the asset and how you can enforce your claim in the event of a problem.

My feeling is that someone like iShares having a problem at least has the deep pockets of Barclay's to go after. This is the same for securities investigators pursuing criminal and civil charges. But what do you do with Gold Money for instance? They are based in the island of Jersey in the British Channel. I'm not an expert in the laws of Jersey, but I suspect it is mainly to protect the people running the company and not the depositors. Up until 2008 the Jersey islands didn't even offer depositor insurance if I recall (something that also does exist very strongly in Switzerland for many non-Canton banks).

What do you do if Gold Money goes under? Can you really access the assets? I don't know. Can you sue them? I don't know. Who guarantees the assets outside of outright theft insurance on the gold? I don't know. What would happen if a government decided the service was being used for criminal activity and freezes all assets? I don't know. Do they have the funds to defend themselves? I don't know. Etc. There are a lot of murky questions.

Perth Mint I can say is at least based in a locale that has a strong government and protections for depositors. There is a more direct line of accountability and criminal laws in place to prevent problems. I think there is also a more direct link to the gold asset as it is a contract between you and the mint that produces and stores the product. With Gold Money it's with you, then Gold Money, then VIA MAT. All regulated by Jersey island law perhaps? Again I need to look closer, but that's a lot of moving parts.

At least ETFs have to comply with US and international securities laws and are pretty transparent in how they operate. But these other gold services? I looked into them and honestly I just can't say the same thing. I think they are riskier than an ETF and definitely not as good as Perth Mint in terms of geographic diversification and protection.

But yes these are my opinions on the matter. I just lay out my thoughts and certainly people are welcome to disagree with them.
Last edited by craigr on Sun Feb 12, 2012 8:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by bronsuchecki »

FYI regards to the issue of moving metal around, this article on the tax issues may be of interest http://solari.com/articles/Tax_Issues_r ... s_Holdings
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by steve »

After reading re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversification and giving it some thought I think that I found an asset that is much more important then keeping gold overseas. I have this asset but never really thought about it as being part of my permanent portfolio until now. My perfect portfolio has 5 assets. When I think about what is more valuable then overseas gold I came to realize that it is the intangible assest of having overseas friends around the world.
For the time being I will just be happy with core bullion and GTU for my gold holding.
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by MachineGhost »

FarmerD wrote: CraigR, MedTex, others, please chime in. 
You're on the right path.  The order in 1933 wasn't about confiscation, it was about anti-hoarding.

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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by craigr »

MachineGhost wrote:
FarmerD wrote: CraigR, MedTex, others, please chime in.  
You're on the right path.  The order in 1933 wasn't about confiscation, it was about anti-hoarding.
Nah, it was about confiscation. "Hoarding" is a weasel word that means "Saver". IMO. Someone that saved gold coins at the time (as it was legal money) was immediately labeled a "hoarder" the next day.

It's the same thing for someone that has some food set aside before a crisis hits. They are suddenly "food hoarders" instead of people that just liked shopping for bulk foods at Costco on sale. etc.

IMO. The US Govt. stores the most gold on the planet for monetary purposes. They are the biggest hoarder of them all if we want to use that word...
Last edited by craigr on Mon Feb 13, 2012 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by tooearly »

"What do you do if Gold Money goes under? Can you really access the assets? I don't know. Can you sue them? I don't know. Who guarantees the assets outside of outright theft insurance on the gold? I don't know. What would happen if a government decided the service was being used for criminal activity and freezes all assets? I don't know. Do they have the funds to defend themselves? I don't know. Etc. There are a lot of murky questions.

Perth Mint I can say is at least based in a locale that has a strong government and protections for depositors. There is a more direct line of accountability and criminal laws in place to prevent problems. I think there is also a more direct link to the gold asset as it is a contract between you and the mint that produces and stores the product. With Gold Money it's with you, then Gold Money, then VIA MAT. All regulated by Jersey island law perhaps? Again I need to look closer, but that's a lot of moving parts.

At least ETFs have to comply with US and international securities laws and are pretty transparent in how they operate. But these other gold services? I looked into them and honestly I just can't say the same thing. I think they are riskier than an ETF and definitely not as good as Perth Mint in terms of geographic diversification and protection.

But yes these are my opinions on the matter. I just lay out my thoughts and certainly people are welcome to disagree with them. "

Well you raise interesting questions that demand good answers but without any clear factual basis to back them up, they should not serve to speak as forcefuly as you have. As has been pointed out, WA law already exists to confiscate the gold there in emergency cases. Have you looked in to Jersey law to know what it allows? or are your concerns hypothetical?
And legal protections? tell that to folks with gold at MF....
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by bronsuchecki »

It isn't a WA law, it is an Australian Federal law and as I point out in the post which first found it http://goldchat.blogspot.com/2008/11/au ... ation.html in such an "emergency case" it is also possible that WA seceeds. Once you start talking about extreme circumstances there is no real protections and the potential scenarios are so varied. Best protection is to diversify financially and geographically.
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

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tooearly wrote:Well you raise interesting questions that demand good answers but without any clear factual basis to back them up, they should not serve to speak as forcefuly as you have. As has been pointed out, WA law already exists to confiscate the gold there in emergency cases. Have you looked in to Jersey law to know what it allows? or are your concerns hypothetical?
And legal protections? tell that to folks with gold at MF....
You are right I have no basis. I am not a lawyer. I am not an expert in the laws of the island of Jersey. I do not know if the securities laws of the various countries apply. I do not know if things like SIPC insurance apply if there is fraud. I don't know many things and do not want to become the test case if there is a problem.

That's the issue to me. I don't invest in things I don't understand and I don't understand these services. Not the idea that they store gold. I get that. I just don't understand the direct link to customer and gold and what stands in the way if there is a problem.

I guess what I see with those services is I get not just the insulation of the asset like an ETF, but some additional risks piled on top. If Barclay's does something illegal I am sure I can find a securities attorney in the US that can take action. I also will likely have insurance coverage due to the problem. But what do I do about a company based in the British Channel islands? I don't know. Just pointing out that people get way too worried about government confiscation and then go into investment products that could have bigger risks.

Maybe someone from these services can pipe up. But I've looked at them and honestly I'm just not that comfortable with them. But that shouldn't stop anyone else from using them.

But I'm all ears, seriously, if you anyone can tell me why these products are better than an ETF and not exposed to additional risks that I stated. I just don't know how accountability is assured if something more generic were to go wrong. I'm not interested in the extreme arguments about confiscation. That's at the bottom the list of risks. IMO.
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

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bronsuchecki wrote: Best protection is to diversify financially and geographically.
Yep.

For that matter why couldn't Switzerland seize gold? They have done a lot of things lately to tarnish their reputation. You never know what will happen.

I'm not suggesting either Switzerland or Australia will seize gold. But sometimes people get too concerned with these corner case risks and can get into other more likely problems trying to avoid them.
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by murphy_p_t »

Craig...I'm a little surprised that you discount the threat from the US gov't...esp in light of precedent (1930s confiscation & years of ownership being made illegal) and the current erection of de-facto capital controls (courtesy of FATCA)

In particular, while holding up ETFs...which don't offer important benefits which I think HB pointed out as reasons for gold ownership...such as being totally outside the financial system & reducing the number of layers between you & the metal.

What is the source of your confidence in the US gov't to respect property rights? Do you think there is little need to be totally outside the financial system?
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

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murphy_p_t wrote: Craig...I'm a little surprised that you discount the threat from the US gov't...esp in light of precedent (1930s confiscation & years of ownership being made illegal) and the current erection of de-facto capital controls (courtesy of FATCA)

In particular, while holding up ETFs...which don't offer important benefits which I think HB pointed out as reasons for gold ownership...such as being totally outside the financial system & reducing the number of layers between you & the metal.

What is the source of your confidence in the US gov't to respect property rights? Do you think there is little need to be totally outside the financial system?
I think that the political dynamics with respect to gold are totally different today than they were in the 1930s.  In a gold standard situation, it is easy to imagine a government resorting to confiscation for many different reasons. 

In a post-gold standard fiat currency world, however, why would a government be interested in confiscating gold?  Who would benefit?  In what way would politicians find such a scheme appealing?  What would make them want to do such a provocative and seemingly desperate thing?  If we assume that politicians will always do what is best for themselves, I don't know how gold confiscation would ever be something that would be perceived to be in politicians' self-interest.

The only thing that might make confiscation seem appealing would be going back onto some kind of gold standard, but for the same reasons I outline above, I don't know why a group of politicians would ever want to go back onto a gold standard after going off of one and enjoying the extra power that goes with being free of any external limits on the money supply.

It's interesting how people are endlessly concerned about the government confiscating gold, but few people talk about the government essentially confiscating stocks through the nationalization of certain industries.  From a historical perspective, this is a much more common occurrence than gold confiscation.
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

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murphy_p_t wrote: Craig...I'm a little surprised that you discount the threat from the US gov't...esp in light of precedent (1930s confiscation & years of ownership being made illegal) and the current erection of de-facto capital controls (courtesy of FATCA)
I don't discount anything. But at the same time I see investors get sucked into riskier ideas by marketers that know just what buttons to push.

My concern simply is that if you're going to go through the trouble of offshore gold storage, then do it right and store it as directly as possible. But that's not what these services do. They either insulate you from the asset through their policies, or they base the company in some tiny foreign jurisdiction where it likely is done to protect the operators and not the depositors.

Why the Channel islands for a locale? What's the point? Why not Switzerland itself? If you're going to store the gold there anyway, why not put the operating company under Swiss law as well? I'd feel far more comfortable dealing with a company regulated under Swiss financial rules than the channel islands. But that's just me.

In terms of confiscation, I agree it's there. But it's way down the list compared to simple fraud or incompetent management of customer assets. It's also far down the list compared to one or more governments shutting down the entire operation and freeze the assets while things get sorted out if customers are accused of criminal activity. That's just not the kind of thing I worry about happening at the Perth Mint or a Swiss Bank or even an ETF. These other methods of holding gold have big money behind them plus governments looking to protect their interests. Who is going to protect Gold Money and Bullion Vault? They are small fish and nobody will care what happens to them. IMO.
In particular, while holding up ETFs...which don't offer important benefits which I think HB pointed out as reasons for gold ownership...such as being totally outside the financial system & reducing the number of layers between you & the metal.

What is the source of your confidence in the US gov't to respect property rights? Do you think there is little need to be totally outside the financial system?
Bullionvault and Gold Money are *not* outside the financial system. If they have any assets in US dollars they are being held in a US bank somewhere. That's even what Swiss banks do. If people are wiring money in and out of them they are going through a wire network like SWIFT which can isolate their accounts at any time. Authorities in Switzerland will seize assets if they are being linked to criminal activity. Etc.

People using these services think they are outside the financial network, but they are not. They have an intermediary in the Channel Islands or London (bullionvault??) working on their behalf to hold assets at vaults operated by companies like VIA MAT in Zurich, or where ever. There is plenty of exposure there. They have the bank they work with in the US to get funds into their account. Then the people managing the account assets to buy/sell gold. Then you have the vault company holding the assets in the name of the intermediary for the customer's behalf. Lot's of layers. No better than an ETF. IMO.

With Perth Mint it is more direct and the people behind it have deep pockets and financial interests to protect on world markets. They are not likely going to do anything to kill their business like take customer's gold.

Another benefit of Perth Mint is they just do gold. That's it. They aren't going to get roped into all sorts of business around funneling money, fraudulent shell companies, tax dodging, etc. like some of the Swiss banks got roped into and caused lots of problems. So there is far less chance US government action against them would have any footing whatsoever. Yes individual customers could be problems, but it won't bring everyone into the fire if that is the case. But you get someone like bullionvault who at one time was allowing direct trading of gold internally (still I believe) and you get e-gold type situations showing up. Meaning that a few people doing illegal things can get the entire enchilada taken if they aren't careful.

Like I said people can use these services and I may off base. But my Spidey sense is tingling. Given the choice, I'd rather use an ETF or closed end fund like GTU and accept the limitations but know I have better accountability if there is a problem. But this middle ground stuff gets really murky in my mind. I don't like all the moving parts. I can't express it any more than that. I just don't understand all the risks and that immediately tells me I don't want to invest. That's just how I do things and obviously people smarter than me can make another choice. It's just how I feel right now. Maybe my mind will change in the future.
Last edited by craigr on Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
tooearly

Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by tooearly »

"But you get someone like bullionvault who at one time was allowing direct trading of gold internally (still I believe) and you get e-gold type situations showing up"
How is direct trading of gold at all related to e-gold situation. I see nothing similar. "In July 2008 the company and its three directors pled guilty to conspiracy to engage in money laundering and conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money-transmitting business."
Neither goldmoney nor BV accept cash. Both have strict customer id protocols.
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

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tooearly wrote: "But you get someone like bullionvault who at one time was allowing direct trading of gold internally (still I believe) and you get e-gold type situations showing up"
How is direct trading of gold at all related to e-gold situation. I see nothing similar.
I think there are similar risks to e-gold based on what BullionVault is doing. It's almost like it could be used for a payment service and that can be potential problems. It may be remote, but it's there. Gold Money does not appear to have this issue. It just seems like you get all the risks of ETFs with these services, plus more risk that ETFs don't have.
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by murphy_p_t »

Craig, you wrote: "If they have any assets in US dollars they are being held in a US bank somewhere. That's even what Swiss banks do."

Can you elaborate on this point? Or maybe you have a reference article?

This is something I had wondered about previously, not knowing how funds are handled electronically, for example to prevent fraud...what's to keep any bank from just going into their computer & showing their balance to be 10 times greater? Is there some independent computer "referee" which keeps track of each banks balance?
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

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murphy,

Gumby went into this once... basically, I think, US dollars cannot really leave the US banking system.  Some sort of odd sub-transaction is made to put our dollars on "China's books," but basically only our banks hold them.

This is probably a gross misstatement of the nature of the arrangement, but it's something like that... maybe Craig or Gumby can fill in the gaps.
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by HB Reader »

moda0306 wrote: murphy,

Gumby went into this once... basically, I think, US dollars cannot really leave the US banking system.  Some sort of odd sub-transaction is made to put our dollars on "China's books," but basically only our banks hold them.

This is probably a gross misstatement of the nature of the arrangement, but it's something like that... maybe Craig or Gumby can fill in the gaps.
That is basically correct.  A foreign bank could theoretically book dollar liabilities that aren't "covered" by a corresponding dollar deposit in a US bank, but that is pretty rare.  In effect, dollar (or Euro, Sterling, etc) deposits don't go anywhere, only the ownership changes.  So the only way dollars can really "leave" the US is as actual banknotes. 

A practical illustration of this is that Swiss banks will typically tell depositors that non-Swiss Franc deposits (like US dollars) are "placed in a foreign bank in our name at your risk."
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Re: Overseas Gold ETFs and Geographic Diversifcation

Post by bronsuchecki »

Agree with HB. It always amused me when some Depository clients asked to send their US dollars to our Australian bank account rather than our US bank account, thinking this would somehow "hide" it from the US authorities. They didn't get that all that happens is the Australian bank directs the US bank sending the dollars to deposit them into the Australian bank's US dollar account held with a US bank. Plus asking for this raises a red flag as to whether the client is up to no good.
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