Gyroscopic Investing

Reub wrote: Craig and MT, if this book goes well as it should I could see a possible whole new line of "Permanent" books from the two of you. Such as:

The Permanent Marriage
The Permanent Wardrobe Including Chaps
The Permanent Diet
The Permanent Haircut
The Permanent Survival Kit
The Permanent Education
The Permanent Gun Collection

Etc.

Am I wrong?

Don't forget the evergreen daily, weekly and monthly planner--"The Permanent Planner."

Then again, we could do what Suze Ormon does and just write the very same book over and over, and just rearrange the chapters and give it a new title.

Seriously, though, one book at a time.  This was not a light effort.

craigr wrote: You'll be happy to know that Bill Bernstein was the first reviewer of the book on Amazon (he reviewed the manuscript). Although he does not invest in the style of the Permanent Portfolio, he had good things to say about the book.

That's a great review.  William Bernstein is a pleasure to read because although he doesn't embrace the Permanent Portfolio, he has really taken the time to understand how the strategy works.  You can tell this by the fact that he levels by far the most accurate criticisms against it.  Specifically, the PP underperforms stock-heavy portfolios in times of prosperity, making adherence challenging during these phases.  PP fans such as myself would do well to keep this insight in mind to inoculate ourselves against the mind games we'll inevitably treat ourselves to if we get back to days like the 80s and 90s.

I'm really enjoying the book so far.  Did anyone else catch the bit from John Chandler about how Harry Browne personally coded the computer simulations that they used back in the day to verify that the portfolio worked across broad periods of time.  I'm a software guy so this is a very cool thing to learn about HB.  Reading Harry Browne's own code to run sims of the Permanent Portfolio on old-school computers... this would be about as good as it gets for this particular geek!  :)

Although I did the Kindle edition for myself, I can think of several people that would enjoy the hard cover edition for Christmas.  I see that you guys are #14 in Kindle investment books!  Nice!

Lone Wolf wrote:

craigr wrote: You'll be happy to know that Bill Bernstein was the first reviewer of the book on Amazon (he reviewed the manuscript). Although he does not invest in the style of the Permanent Portfolio, he had good things to say about the book.

That's a great review.  William Bernstein is a pleasure to read because although he doesn't embrace the Permanent Portfolio, he has really taken the time to understand how the strategy works.  You can tell this by the fact that he levels by far the most accurate criticisms against it.  Specifically, the PP underperforms stock-heavy portfolios in times of prosperity, making adherence challenging during these phases.  PP fans such as myself would do well to keep this insight in mind to inoculate ourselves against the mind games we'll inevitably treat ourselves to if we get back to days like the 80s and 90s.

These are valid critiques that apply to any strategy. I remind readers about Dow 36,000 and how gung-ho people were about stocks in the late 90s! No investing strategy can control what the hot money is going to do. Unsuccessful investors are constantly moving around between latest investing ideas and will lag the markets greatly because of it.

I think the Permanent Portfolio actually allows investors to avoid getting sucked into bubbles. You own enough of each asset to prosper if things go well, but not enough to get your throat cut if the bet goes sour. It also is stable so investors can stick with the plan long-term which is a key to growing profits.

Did anyone else catch the bit from John Chandler about how Harry Browne personally coded the computer simulations that they used back in the day to verify that the portfolio worked across broad periods of time.  I'm a software guy so this is a very cool thing to learn about HB.  Reading Harry Browne's own code to run sims of the Permanent Portfolio on old-school computers... this would be about as good as it gets for this particular geek!  :)

Yeah I liked that part when John mentioned it to me. They were doing things during the portfolio development back then that were pretty ahead of their time in many ways. The thinking itself was way outside of bounds back then. The idea that a passive investing approach that was widely diversified would work best was only being stated by a few lone voices (Malkiel, Bogle, etc.). Even they were all being mocked in the financial world for it!

I see that you guys are #14 in Kindle investment books!  Nice!

We could be #1 if we offered a free set of leather chaps with the book. But nobody outside this forum would get the joke.

craigr wrote: We could be #1 if we offered a free set of leather chaps with the book. But nobody outside this forum would get the joke.

  i am wishing there had been a leather chaps prize for the suicide portfolio competition, my chaps holdings are down to zero percent of my portfolio after i gave my chainsaw chaps away to a friend a few years ago.

Lone Wolf wrote:

craigr wrote: You'll be happy to know that Bill Bernstein was the first reviewer of the book on Amazon (he reviewed the manuscript). Although he does not invest in the style of the Permanent Portfolio, he had good things to say about the book.

That's a great review.  William Bernstein is a pleasure to read because although he doesn't embrace the Permanent Portfolio, he has really taken the time to understand how the strategy works.  You can tell this by the fact that he levels by far the most accurate criticisms against it.  Specifically, the PP underperforms stock-heavy portfolios in times of prosperity, making adherence challenging during these phases.  PP fans such as myself would do well to keep this insight in mind to inoculate ourselves against the mind games we'll inevitably treat ourselves to if we get back to days like the 80s and 90s.

I'm really enjoying the book so far.  Did anyone else catch the bit from John Chandler about how Harry Browne personally coded the computer simulations that they used back in the day to verify that the portfolio worked across broad periods of time.  I'm a software guy so this is a very cool thing to learn about HB.  Reading Harry Browne's own code to run sims of the Permanent Portfolio on old-school computers... this would be about as good as it gets for this particular geek! 

Just got the book today, and really enjoyed what I've read so far.  The 16 rules are nicely updated.  Yes, I did catch that about HB doing his own programming - most impressive for that era!  Anyone here remember how you used to have to code in binary using punch cards?  CRT terminals were new and exciting in the early/mid 80's.

I didn't get that same warm/fuzzy feeling upon reading William Bernstein's review on Amazon - the impression I got was, this is a real dog of a portfolio and no one will stick with it for long, I wouldn't come near it, but sure, have at it.  Not sure he got the part about not being able to predict the future.  I'm glad that wasn't a universal impression but all the same, hopefully someone of equal stature in the investment world will put in another review.

And MG - you might feel better knowing that you can "lend" the book for 7 days.  I don't begrudge MT, Craig, and the others who brought this book to publication the purchase price though.  I've written enough articles and chapters to know how much work it is to write something informative and readable.  The ink & paper are probably the least of the costs.

sophie wrote:I didn't get that same warm/fuzzy feeling upon reading William Bernstein's review on Amazon - the impression I got was, this is a real dog of a portfolio and no one will stick with it for long, I wouldn't come near it, but sure, have at it.

You know it's one of those things where opinions differ and I respect his opinion as I do anyone else's. He may feel a stock heavy portfolio is the best option and my opinion would be identical in terms of nobody will stick with it for long but you can go try it if you want. Then there are other authors now promoting near 100% TIPS portfolios which I think is a horrible idea for a multitude of reasons.

All we can do is get others to read the book and post reviews of their own. The portfolio is certainly not low-return with a CAGR of 9.5%. That's almost identical to a 100% total stock market portfolio the past 40 years. So it's no slacker historically speaking at least. It is also very widely diversified compared to many alternatives. I don't see other portfolio ideas incorporating geopolitical/natural disaster diversification for instance which I think are incredibly important.

I sleep like a baby following this approach and I never really did that when I was using a more conventional stock/bond allocation. And I've been using the portfolio before the 2008 meltdown so it's not something I jumped into based on performance chasing. I looked at the risk profiles of all these strategies out there and simply felt that Harry Browne came up with a very good model of diversification. I'll put this portfolio up against any other in terms of risk/reward ratio.

Lone Wolf wrote: I'm really enjoying the book so far.  Did anyone else catch the bit from John Chandler about how Harry Browne personally coded the computer simulations that they used back in the day to verify that the portfolio worked across broad periods of time.  I'm a software guy so this is a very cool thing to learn about HB.  Reading Harry Browne's own code to run sims of the Permanent Portfolio on old-school computers... this would be about as good as it gets for this particular geek!  :)

What "broad periods" of time was used?  1971 to 1982 at best sure doesn't strike me as "broad" but maybe given the limitations of computing at the time, it was?

MachineGhost wrote:

Lone Wolf wrote: I'm really enjoying the book so far.  Did anyone else catch the bit from John Chandler about how Harry Browne personally coded the computer simulations that they used back in the day to verify that the portfolio worked across broad periods of time.  I'm a software guy so this is a very cool thing to learn about HB.  Reading Harry Browne's own code to run sims of the Permanent Portfolio on old-school computers... this would be about as good as it gets for this particular geek!  :)

What "broad periods" of time was used?  1971 to 1982 at best sure doesn't strike me as "broad" but maybe given the limitations of computing at the time, it was?

According to John, they looked at data going back much further than that as well as relevant financial history. They also apparently paid to get other analysis done as well on this data if I recall. The ideas were not pulled out of thin air, as many are, it was based on serious thought on economics and empirical data.

When major publishers have hardcover books printed they do it in large quantity.  The cost to print and wrap the book is about $3 apiece for a hardcover, less for a paperback.  Most of the costs that go into the price of any book, whether e-book or p-book, is about all the labor that goes into making the intellectual property before the book even goes to press:  Writers, editors (acquisitions editors, developmental editors, copy editors), proofreaders, fact checkers, rights specialists, legal, designers (covers, interior, typefaces, etc.)--and that does not include any of the marketing and promo costs, overhead, the distribution costs.  The publisher has the same upfront costs whether the result is an e-book, p-book, or both.

I noticed that the original list price of the p-book is $45, so an e-book priced at about $20 seems reasonable.  It's just that right now Amazon has the p-book on a half-off pre-sale that makes it look like a bad value.  BTW, since publishers sell to distributors for about half off the list price, Amazon may not be making anything on the p-book--unless they got a great deal from the publisher.

sophie wrote: The 16 rules are nicely updated.  Yes, I did catch that about HB doing his own programming - most impressive for that era!  Anyone here remember how you used to have to code in binary using punch cards?  CRT terminals were new and exciting in the early/mid 80's.

Oh yeah!  I don't go back quite far enough to have done this myself but every time I check in modern code into a safe, simple version control system, I'm glad I'm not one of those poor programmers from back in the day that could have a gust of wind scatter their punch cards across the parking lot.  

sophie wrote:I didn't get that same warm/fuzzy feeling upon reading William Bernstein's review on Amazon - the impression I got was, this is a real dog of a portfolio and no one will stick with it for long, I wouldn't come near it, but sure, have at it.   Not sure he got the part about not being able to predict the future.  I'm glad that wasn't a universal impression but all the same, hopefully someone of equal stature in the investment world will put in another review.

Sure, that's very fair.  I, too, would prefer that Bernstein don the leather chaps with the rest of us and adopt this excellent portfolio.  But I always enjoy reading a thoughtful, accurate critique so much more than yet another "Bad timing -- gold is too high!  Interest rates have nowhere to go but up!" market timing-based attack.  Sadly, Bernstein is one of the few pros that looks more deeply than these tired old canards and hits upon a genuine trap to watch out for.  Namely, the envy trap where during a time of prosperity we listen to our obnoxious late-90s biotech neighbor who claims to have gotten rich with some ten-bagger stock pick.

That urge to keep up with the Joneses, if followed, can put you in the poor house right beside the Joneses.  By staying aware of this trap, I think that many (hopefully most) of us will recognize this urge when it comes and just continue to enjoy our safe, boring returns.

Currently, the Permanent Portfolio is in the interesting position of having its safe, boring returns crush most other portfolios.  I like to mentally prep myself for when the day comes that these safe, boring returns seem... well, safe and boring again.

I'm still hoping that Suzanne Somers dons the leather chaps.

Lone Wolf wrote: Sadly, Bernstein is one of the few pros that looks more deeply than these tired old canards and hits upon a genuine trap to watch out for.  Namely, the envy trap where during a time of prosperity we listen to our obnoxious late-90s biotech neighbor who claims to have gotten rich with some ten-bagger stock pick.

That urge to keep up with the Joneses, if followed, can put you in the poor house right beside the Joneses.  By staying aware of this trap, I think that many (hopefully most) of us will recognize this urge when it comes and just continue to enjoy our safe, boring returns.

Well said!  I finished the next chapter on the subway today.  It builds a beautiful case for why consistent, steady returns with neither up nor down decades is important from the point of view of an investor lacking a crystal ball, and with a typical time horizon of 40 years or less.  If stated more explicitly, it would contain the perfect answer to Bernstein's critique.  The problem is, how many people knew in 1981 to invest in stocks?  Or to get out of them in 1987 before Black Monday, or before the tech bubble burst in 2000?  If those times ever come again, I'll happily put lots of VP money into VFINX or similar, but I'll constantly be wondering when it's time to get out.

Looks like according to the price at Amazon, I'll have to buy two to get the free shipping deal. Looks like I know what I'll be getting my Dad for his birthday

Reub wrote: I'm still hoping that Suzanne Somers dons the leather chaps.

I'd never thought I'd say this, but she is pretty damn fine for being 65 freakin' years old...

And smarter than she looks!

Austen Heller wrote: Craig & MT:

Thank you for taking the time to write this important book.  I remember getting a copy of William Bernstein's "4 Pillars" back for Xmas in 2004, and it gave me an investing education that served me well (.....at least until 2008 came along).  I plan to get your book as a Xmas gift for several people in my family, hopefully it will serve them well for many years.  I have tried to explain the PP concept to several people, but when I explain how simple it is, and how there is a large allocation to gold, I usually lose my audience.  I am hoping your book will do a better job.

I am not sure this is the same William Bernstein, but someone of that name just wrote a glowing review of the book on Amazon.

Ad Orientem wrote:

Austen Heller wrote: Craig & MT:

Thank you for taking the time to write this important book.  I remember getting a copy of William Bernstein's "4 Pillars" back for Xmas in 2004, and it gave me an investing education that served me well (.....at least until 2008 came along).  I plan to get your book as a Xmas gift for several people in my family, hopefully it will serve them well for many years.  I have tried to explain the PP concept to several people, but when I explain how simple it is, and how there is a large allocation to gold, I usually lose my audience.  I am hoping your book will do a better job.

I am not sure this is the same William Bernstein, but someone of that name just wrote a glowing review of the book on Amazon.

Yes that's the same William Bernstein. I sent him a copy of the manuscript to review. He has his caveats based on his own style of investing (of which we disagree!), but as you can see he did like the book for anyone looking to deploy this strategy.

I want my book!

Haven't read the book yet, but I encourage EVERYONE to review it once they've read it. The more 4 or 5-star reviews a book gets on Amazon, the more exposure Amazon's search algorithms give it. So, 30 or 40 well-written four or five star reviews would be tremendous for this book.

Gumby wrote: Haven't read the book yet, but I encourage EVERYONE to review it once they've read it. The more 4 or 5-star reviews a book gets on Amazon, the more exposure Amazon's search algorithms give it. So, 30 or 40 well-written four or five star reviews would be tremendous for this book.

Reviews are definitely welcome. Also if you are on other forums where people may get use out of the book (without coming across as a spammer!), please free to mention it. We appreciate it.

The book is as excellent as I expected it would be. If I had one criticism, it would be that it's hard for me to distinguish the fifty-er, the five shades of gray in some of the charts. Like the chart showing 30-YR treasuries on the rise.

This is a tiny nitpick, and it's certainly not unique to this particular work. I had the same problem with the kindle version of Rick Ferri's All About Asset Allocation, for example. And, the ones I'm giving out as gifts are hardcover anyway.

When I began the book, I didn't think I'd find much that I hadn't already encountered in Harry's books. But, as the intro says, ...Best Laid Plans... and other books are long on philosophy, not implementation. As much as I love Best Laid Plans, I wouldn't try to make any of my friends or relatives wade through that weighty tome. This new book is the only one I feel confident to share.

dualstow wrote: The book is as excellent as I expected it would be. If I had one criticism, it would be that it's hard for me to distinguish the fifty-er, the five shades of gray in some of the charts. Like the chart showing 30-YR treasuries on the rise.

This is a tiny nitpick, and it's certainly not unique to this particular work. I had the same problem with the kindle version of Rick Ferri's All About Asset Allocation, for example. And, the ones I'm giving out as gifts are hardcover anyway.

When I began the book, I didn't think I'd find much that I hadn't already encountered in Harry's books. But, as the intro says, ...Best Laid Plans... and other books are long on philosophy, not implementation. As much as I love Best Laid Plans, I wouldn't try to make any of my friends or relatives wade through that weighty tome. This new book is the only one I feel confident to share.

Thanks for the nice feedback.

If the shades of gray in the graphs is the only complaint, it sounds like we did a good job.

If the shades of gray in the graphs is the only complaint, it sounds like we did a good job.

It is, and you did. :-)

dualstow wrote: The book is as excellent as I expected it would be. If I had one criticism, it would be that it's hard for me to distinguish the fifty-er, the five shades of gray in some of the charts. Like the chart showing 30-YR treasuries on the rise.

This is a tiny nitpick, and it's certainly not unique to this particular work. I had the same problem with the kindle version of Rick Ferri's All About Asset Allocation, for example. And, the ones I'm giving out as gifts are hardcover anyway.

When I began the book, I didn't think I'd find much that I hadn't already encountered in Harry's books. But, as the intro says, ...Best Laid Plans... and other books are long on philosophy, not implementation. As much as I love Best Laid Plans, I wouldn't try to make any of my friends or relatives wade through that weighty tome. This new book is the only one I feel confident to share.

Thanks for the note. The graphs were generated in color for the publisher, but they convert them to black and white for the printing. I wish they could keep them color for the ebook version as many readers are color, alas there seems to be a disconnect in how the industry manages this right now. Maybe next version they'll get it more consistent.

Thanks for the note. It's always good to get feedback. We wanted the book to balance theory with implementation and hope it did that.

Oh, one correction: I wrote

But, as the intro says

I'm not sure *where* I read that bit about implementation over mere philosophy. It was probably in a forum post, not the intro. Doesn't matter, because it's true. The book does have good implementation notes indeed.