Gyroscopic Investing

I discovered last week that I’m really at 45% stocks, all told, and I don’t like it. Still, I don’t think I can bring myself to buy.

I am at 35% as well and happy there...

If you are buy and holder, 25%-35% is just fine in this market.

In PP at 30%, VP at 70%, combined 55% equities.
This party will end but not today

UBS has an upside target of 3300 for SP500 by end 2018. That's 27.7% higher. Mid case 2900, low case 2200.

ochotona wrote:UBS has an upside target of 3300 for SP500 by end 2018. That's 27.7% higher. Mid case 2900, low case 2200.

We think it will be between 2200 and 3300...wow, thanks for the narrow range

Asia selling off right now. Samsung down 4% in the local Korean stock exchange.

Just saying, it would be nice one day to see gold saved on a daily basis as much as the market is. Another rocket, meh. Tax reform, yea!

The extra juice that SCV provides makes this a great day. AU outperformed as far as I am concerned given USD was stronger on the day relative to a basket of currencies (UUP).

But I agree...

New article from Schwab today

I Melt with You: Anatomy of a Market Melt Up

Sche emerging markets up 1.36%

IJS + 1.6%
This is more than a melt up, but it sure looks like this will continue if buybacks remain strong. If the tax bill fails, we’re in for a nasty surprise.

Schwab is trying to prepare clients for a bear market. It's pretty obvious from their client communications in the last few weeks.

This pleases me. I sold all my non-PP stocks in my taxable account just before 2018 in order to buy real estate.

Kriegsspiel wrote:This pleases me. I sold all my non-PP stocks in my taxable account just before 2018 in order to buy real estate.

Congrats! (I also bought a home just before 2018.) Too bad residential real estate prices tend to be highly correlated with the stock market

Real estate price movements tend to be dampened relative to those of the stock market, but on the other hand, most first-time home purchases are made with at least 5x leverage (assuming 20% down payment or less). Maybe it's a wash...

Tortoise wrote:

Kriegsspiel wrote:This pleases me. I sold all my non-PP stocks in my taxable account just before 2018 in order to buy real estate.

Congrats! (I also bought a home just before 2018.) Too bad residential real estate prices tend to be highly correlated with the stock market

Real estate price movements tend to be dampened relative to those of the stock market, but on the other hand, most first-time home purchases are made with at least 5x leverage (assuming 20% down payment or less). Maybe it's a wash...

Hah, well IIRC you bought a house in SoCal, which is waaaaaaay different from what I'm planning to do, which is buy a fixer-upper in the Rust Belt for, say, $30,000 in cash.

But yes, if I sold stocks and the peak, then bought a property after everything crashed... I'd probably write a book about how my strategy is the shit and make a bunch of money. Hell, if real estate prices crashed by the time I'm buying, I'd just buy a non-fixer and plug the rehab money back into the stock market.

ochotona wrote:Schwab is trying to prepare clients for a bear market. It's pretty obvious from their client communications in the last few weeks.

@LizAnnSonders

"We have been writing about the “risk” of a melt-up for a while now- becoming clearer that’s what we’re experiencing- discipline, rebalancing, diversification all crucial"

Liz Ann is Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.

My International Growth fund is + 6% YTD, not including today which will be another 1%+

Budd, you'll be retiring by March...

Fear Of Missing Out. Heard a story that more retail investors are starting to get in. Now. Finally. Hah.

Three things:

1) The PP has kept me in stocks. I either still would have never gotten back in from 2009 if it wasn't for the PP, or I would have gotten in and bailed early again. I guarantee it. Instead I get to enjoy it.

2) It looks like these tax cuts are working at least for now, with Apple bringing back money and jobs, various companies giving pay hikes and bonuses, etc.

3) When it happens, this is going to be the mother of all crashes taking everyone down that doesn't have some gold in hand. Or at least that's what I think.

Haha, I was thinking for my birthday in Feb.
Agree, I would have sold to cash to “lock-in” profits countless times between 2009 and today. PP has kept me in stocks too.
It’s certainly been more challenging to stay in Gold and Bonds.
Nevertheless, I am happy with the PP’s performance and combined with a stock heavy global PP the combination has been rewarding.

ochotona wrote:US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yggdrasil

dualstow wrote:

ochotona wrote:US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yggdrasil

Uh oh

dualstow wrote:

ochotona wrote:US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yggdrasil

I love it! Ha!

This run up is amazing. Obviously it has to end at some point, but you gotta love the ride!

Some of the year-end 2018 S&P500 targets called by various analysts were in the 2850 range, we hit it today. Weird.