Gyroscopic Investing

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:15 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:52 pm This part in bold is a big reason why the naysayers, well, nay. They don’t get that currency crises arise from seemingly out of nowhere and transpire extremely quickly. They simply aren’t captured in most traditional return data sets used by the likes of Morningstar etc.


75806B68-B497-4FC6-9BB6-514DD9231AC8.jpeg

Obviously from Dalio's book?

Correct!

I really love the book. It’s honestly so enlightening and insightful. At least, I think it is.

It’s really a blueprint for global macro investing. There are PP vibes throughout the tome, don’t you think?

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:17 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:15 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:52 pm
This part in bold is a big reason why the naysayers, well, nay. They don’t get that currency crises arise from seemingly out of nowhere and transpire extremely quickly. They simply aren’t captured in most traditional return data sets used by the likes of Morningstar etc.


75806B68-B497-4FC6-9BB6-514DD9231AC8.jpeg

Obviously from Dalio's book?

Correct!

I really love the book. It’s honestly so enlightening and insightful. At least, I think it is.

It’s really a blueprint for global macro investing. There are PP vibes throughout the tome, don’t you think?

Didn't some here accuse Dalio of stealing some of Harry's ideas without giving proper attribution?

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:22 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:17 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:15 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:52 pm This part in bold is a big reason why the naysayers, well, nay. They don’t get that currency crises arise from seemingly out of nowhere and transpire extremely quickly. They simply aren’t captured in most traditional return data sets used by the likes of Morningstar etc.


75806B68-B497-4FC6-9BB6-514DD9231AC8.jpeg

Obviously from Dalio's book?

Correct!

I really love the book. It’s honestly so enlightening and insightful. At least, I think it is.

It’s really a blueprint for global macro investing. There are PP vibes throughout the tome, don’t you think?

Didn't some here accuse Dalio of stealing some of Harry's ideas without giving proper attribution?

Yeah, some guy.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:26 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:22 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:17 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:15 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:52 pm
This part in bold is a big reason why the naysayers, well, nay. They don’t get that currency crises arise from seemingly out of nowhere and transpire extremely quickly. They simply aren’t captured in most traditional return data sets used by the likes of Morningstar etc.


75806B68-B497-4FC6-9BB6-514DD9231AC8.jpeg

Obviously from Dalio's book?

Correct!

I really love the book. It’s honestly so enlightening and insightful. At least, I think it is.

It’s really a blueprint for global macro investing. There are PP vibes throughout the tome, don’t you think?

Didn't some here accuse Dalio of stealing some of Harry's ideas without giving proper attribution?

Yeah, some guy.

Was it you??!!!

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:40 pm
Was it you??!!!

Lol yes!

Just for fun I hollowed out an old digital watch and stuck a maplegram inside in order to create a poor man's version of that gold embedded watch I posted about earlier.

That looks suspiciously like your dad’s old watch.
Could you at least line up the gold with that open circle?

As much as I hated gold price declines, I find that I hate the increases more because of what comes with it

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:31 pm As much as I hated gold price declines, I find that I hate the increases more because of what comes with it

I totally agree. If gold goes to $5000 grab your bug out bag and your gold and head for the hills.

The way the west has been able to freeze Russia’s dollar and euro reserves, I would think many central banks will give more consideration to accumulating gold.

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:31 pm As much as I hated gold price declines, I find that I hate the increases more because of what comes with it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k5aVLi_yhM
(language warning)

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 6:53 pm The way the west has been able to freeze Russia’s dollar and euro reserves, I would think many central banks will give more consideration to accumulating gold.

Geopolitical 3d chess. Russias western assets frozen. US and Europe virtue signals themselves off a cliff by banning Russian oil spiking the cost to 200 dollars a barrel, blowing up their respective economies, Russia and China settle transactions in gold. Russia only takes oil payment in gold - comex (the paper gold market that is alleged 100 to 1 paper to physical (alleged) blows up as contracts are redeemed for physical to pay. Physical gold spikes to 5000. Personal ownership is made illegal in the West. China manufactures a crisis to take back Taiwan. Russia, India, China - decide green paper is dumb. The dollar dies. My grand children or great grand children contemplate moving to the East for a better life.

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:29 pm Geopolitical 3d chess. Russias western assets frozen. US and Europe virtue signals themselves off a cliff by banning Russian oil spiking the cost to 200 dollars a barrel, blowing up their respective economies, Russia and China settle transactions in gold. Russia only takes oil payment in gold - comex (the paper gold market that is alleged 100 to 1 paper to physical (alleged) blows up as contracts are redeemed for physical to pay. Physical gold spikes to 5000. Personal ownership is made illegal in the West. China manufactures a crisis to take back Taiwan. Russia, India, China - decide green paper is dumb. The dollar dies. My grand children or great grand children contemplate moving to the East for a better life.

Well that was a happy hypothetical to start my weekend/Saturday morning

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:31 pm As much as I hated gold price declines, I find that I hate the increases more because of what comes with it

My philosophy is, things are bad. As long as things are bad, I want gold to kick in and do its thing. A sort of silv- uh, a sort of consolation prize.

$2000. Wow.

Saw an article on WSJ that central banks have just learned from the Russian situation that foreign holdings which they thought were "money" really aren't. They're likely to start stockpiling gold.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Sun Mar 06, 2022 7:20 pm $2000. Wow.

Where is Bud these days? :-)

Xan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 06, 2022 7:40 pm Saw an article on WSJ that central banks have just learned from the Russian situation that foreign holdings which they thought were "money" really aren't. They're likely to start stockpiling gold.

I liked Matt Levine’s essay, “Russia’s Money is Gone” — link posted in the Ukraine Invasion thread — which made me think really hard about physical gold.
The 2nd paragraph:

But the response to the 2008 global financial crisis, and to its later European aftershocks, made it clear that something else was going on. Who has money and what they can do with it can be adjusted by the actions of central banks and national treasuries; banks can be bailed out; costs can be socialized. The fiscal response to Covid-19 reinforced this point: Money is a tool of social decision-making, not an objective thing that you get through abstract merit.

Only the illiterate, the captured, and the Bogleheads still think fiat money is above reproach. It's one of those things that is great, beyond great, on paper. Until it isn't. And I sense that a lot of younger people are seeing it. What Canada did to the donors to the truckers, and now what is being done to Russia, if anyone is paying attention they have to see that their money is nothing more than a government granted privilege that can be restricted in an instant. I think this should be a turning point for gold. It probably won't be as big as it should be, though. Let's see.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Sun Mar 06, 2022 7:20 pm $2000. Wow.

My 4x25 HBPP gold is about 28%.
Should I rebalance at 30% or wait for possible 35%, as 15/35% my rebalance bands.

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:09 am My 4x25 HBPP gold is about 28%.
Should I rebalance at 30% or wait for possible 35%, as 15/35% my rebalance bands.

I'm in the same boat/been wondering the same thing. I wish I had rebalanced out of bonds right after the COVID market shift as some here did, so hoping to take advantage the volatility here if possible. Then again, I'm happy to have *something* preserving my purchasing power!

Hmm. This is now a good problem to have! Most of my gold is physical. How do I actually take advantage of this? Am I buying puts on GLD as a method of rebalancing?

drumminj wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:30 am

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:09 am My 4x25 HBPP gold is about 28%.
Should I rebalance at 30% or wait for possible 35%, as 15/35% my rebalance bands.

I'm in the same boat/been wondering the same thing. I wish I had rebalanced out of bonds right after the COVID market shift as some here did, so hoping to take advantage the volatility here if possible. Then again, I'm happy to have *something* preserving my purchasing power!

I guess that not following the bands is market timing and we do not do that. Right? :-)

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:35 am Hmm. This is now a good problem to have! Most of my gold is physical. How do I actually take advantage of this? Am I buying puts on GLD as a method of rebalancing?

Mine is all IAU... Good, bad or ugly. But a bit easier to move around than physical. Well, while ETFs are still an option, till SHTF and it is no longer :-/

I like wide rebalance bands.