Some 2020 General Election Polls

[Ad Orientem]

WI called for Biden, but you all knew that already.

Trump’s campaign manager says he’ll request a recount in Wisconsin, though it may be up to two weeks before one can begin. In 2016 a statewide recount increased Trump’s margin by 131 votes.

Agreed. It's Trump's right and I honestly don't blame him. But the odds of flipping the results are ...

[ahhrunforthehills]

WI called for Biden, but you all knew that already.

Trump’s campaign manager says he’ll request a recount in Wisconsin, though it may be up to two weeks before one can begin. In 2016 a statewide recount increased Trump’s margin by 131 votes.

I wonder if requesting a recount is something that is just requested from a procedural standpoint when you are planning on contesting the outcome of a state's result in the courts.

The margins don't seem large enough to justify a recount.

[ahhrunforthehills]

Trump has filed a lawsuit in Michigan “to halt counting until meaningful access has been granted.”

[glennds]

Looking to me like Biden clear-cut win by this evening. Everything falling his way now.

Why are you saying that?

It does look like he'll win Wisconsin and Michigan, but he also needs Nevada and it's close with only 2/3 reporting.

No, he took arizona

I don't think Arizona has been called yet. However the margin in Biden's favor is about 3.5% and includes both Maricopa and Pima counties. It is highly unlikely that the overall state could ever go a different direction than Maricopa and Pima together, so Arizona is as good as Biden's. I am keeping an eye on NC because apparently is is the mail-in votes that have not been counted there. If you subscribe the the belief that mail in and early votes favor Biden, it could swing.

[glennds]

Well as of right now it looks like Biden is probably going to win by his fingertips. But I have to admit that the Trump supporters who were shaking their heads at most of the polls have been largely proven right. Most of the polls were off, in some cases by margins worse than the 2016 fail.

However, just about all of those in 2016 were off by the margin of error? In most cases, only 1% or 2%? How much are they off this year?

Vinny

A Washington Post/ABC News poll published on October 28 had Biden winning Wisconsin by 17 points. The New York Times had him winning the state by 11 points on the day before election day. The national polling averages had Biden ahead in the popular vote by somewhere between 8-9%. And that actually includes a handful of polls that were calling the election as much closer or even with Trump up very slightly. These aren't near misses. These are epic fails that should warrant investigation.

At this point he has a popular vote lead of about 5%?

Vinny

If Biden's popular vote lead holds to the end, then it will be 7 of the last 8 elections that were Democrat majority in popular vote.
If Trump wins EC anyway either legitimately or through theft, then despite the 7 of 8 statistic, there will be a situation of Republican win over popular majority 50% of the time.
Between the idiosyncrasy of the EC and gerrymandering, the Republicans have been able to hold on to minority rule effectively. But in pure democracy terms their party in its current form is an analog player in a digital age. I wonder how long it will last as younger voters continue to come of age and the more radical conservatives die out.
I believe there is a lot of popular support for abolishing the Electoral College.

[glennds]

Hillary took nevada in 2016...can't imagine it swinging Trump

It would be tough, but remotely possible. Like Arizona, a disproportionate part of the Nevada population is in Clark and Washoe counties. They are both trending Biden. The small Trump counties in the rural areas are just not enough votes to offset. Especially if the early/mail-in ballots are the ones remaining to be counted.

[glennds]

Trump needs to contest this to the bitter end.

Do you have any doubt that he will do exactly that?

If he can't win honestly, Plan B, will be to use the court system to disenfranchise voters, with special help from the judges and justices that he appointed. Hard to believe this is America.

[Xan]

Trump needs to contest this to the bitter end.

Do you have any doubt that he will do exactly that?

If he can't win honestly, Plan B, will be to use the court system to disenfranchise voters, with special help from the judges and justices that he appointed. Hard to believe this is America.

It wouldn't work. He appointed really good judges. They won't discount any votes that should be counted.

[yankees60]

Well as of right now it looks like Biden is probably going to win by his fingertips. But I have to admit that the Trump supporters who were shaking their heads at most of the polls have been largely proven right. Most of the polls were off, in some cases by margins worse than the 2016 fail.

However, just about all of those in 2016 were off by the margin of error? In most cases, only 1% or 2%? How much are they off this year?

Vinny

A Washington Post/ABC News poll published on October 28 had Biden winning Wisconsin by 17 points. The New York Times had him winning the state by 11 points on the day before election day. The national polling averages had Biden ahead in the popular vote by somewhere between 8-9%. And that actually includes a handful of polls that were calling the election as much closer or even with Trump up very slightly. These aren't near misses. These are epic fails that should warrant investigation.

At this point he has a popular vote lead of about 5%?

Vinny

It's 2 percentage points, Vinny.

This failure isn't specific to Trump, either. For example, Maine has just been called for Susan Collins, who the polls had losing by 2 points going into Election Day. She's winning by 8-9 points.

What is 2 percentage points? The difference between the poll and the result? Or, the actual. I see my error. I computed the difference / divided by Trump's total rather the difference / Grant total. Now recomputing I see 51.1 to 48.9. A difference of 2.2%.

Vinny

[Cortopassi]

CNN just called Michigan for Biden.

For those who don’t watch CNN

And for those who aren’t sure, THIS is what a humble, congenial contender says:

“I’m not here to declare that we’ve won, but I am here to report that when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winners,” Mr. Biden said in a speech at an event center in Wilmington.

[glennds]

Trump needs to contest this to the bitter end.

Do you have any doubt that he will do exactly that?

If he can't win honestly, Plan B, will be to use the court system to disenfranchise voters, with special help from the judges and justices that he appointed. Hard to believe this is America.

It wouldn't work. He appointed really good judges. They won't discount any votes that should be counted.

I hope you're right. Some would say it's happened before when SCOTUS overruled Florida and stopped the recount despite shown cause.

[Ad Orientem]

Trump needs to contest this to the bitter end.

Do you have any doubt that he will do exactly that?

If he can't win honestly, Plan B, will be to use the court system to disenfranchise voters, with special help from the judges and justices that he appointed. Hard to believe this is America.

It wouldn't work. He appointed really good judges. They won't discount any votes that should be counted.

I hope you're right. Some would say it's happened before when SCOTUS overruled Florida and stopped the recount despite shown cause.

This isn't 2000 or Florida. In 2000 all the votes in Florida had been counted, in most cases more than once. Gore, quite oddly, made the decision not to request a statewide recount and to focus only on counties where he expected to pick up votes. If he had requested a state wide recount, he likely would have won. But in any event the situation is completely different. Nothing currently suggests that any of the remaining states are going to be decided on such a razor thin margin.

Trump has almost certainly lost. And he appears to realize this based on his prevaricating, outright lies and typically petty behavior.

[Xan]

Trump has almost certainly lost. And he appears to realize this based on his prevaricating, outright lies and typically petty behavior.

Ad, would you read the article that Mountaineer just posted on the other thread and see what you think?

[sophie]

A Washington Post/ABC News poll published on October 28 had Biden winning Wisconsin by 17 points. The New York Times had him winning the state by 11 points on the day before election day. The national polling averages had Biden ahead in the popular vote by somewhere between 8-9%. And that actually includes a handful of polls that were calling the election as much closer or even with Trump up very slightly. These aren't near misses. These are epic fails that should warrant investigation.

Glad you finally admitted this, Ad.

Like I've already said, the role of the media's influence on this election, and the degree to which it was done purposefully and with malicious intent, seriously needs investigation. It is most interesting that Democrats manufactured a case against Trump for election jiggering....which in retrospect was a huge red flag that this was exactly what they were doing themselves. This also requires serious investigation.

Trump's lawsuits and complaints are probably really coming from this. He knows he can't do anything about the damage that's already been done, so he's pursuing what avenues he can. It does look awful, like he's not willing to admit he's lost, but I can completely understand the sentiment. He knows he lost in an unfair fight, and that must be very hard to swallow.

[doodle]

Honesty doesn't matter. Not from president, not from media. Character is irrelevant when pursuing ones ends. I've heard that over and over here. Can't have it both ways people!

[Cortopassi]

Show me the money. Reputable sites.

[sophie]

Show me the money. Reputable sites.

How do you define "reputable"?

Unfortunately, that term seems to mean "mainstream outlets" like CNN, NYT, WaPo etc. Which are all severely tainted at this point, as their lack of objectivity in political reporting has been exposed in grand fashion over the past few months.

I hope I don't have to explain what a threat this is to our democracy. I think it is the most important issue facing us right now - way more so than COVID, for sure. You may recall that there's this little phrase in the Bill of Rights called "Freedom of the Press." That's because the authors of the Constitution were well aware that a free, unmanipulated press is essential to a free society and a properly functioning government.

This article in the Federalist is worth reading before you decide what news sources are truly "reputable". Take a look and then get back to us. Me, I plan on exploring all these sources at next TV watching opportunity (they're mostly on Youtube, not written).

https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/03/th ... ng-hotter/

[Cortopassi]

If there's issues with ballots, why the heck did dems do so bad on house and senate seats? Why not go for the whole enchilada?

Really, why just Trump, and why with such a razor thin margin? Wouldn't you want to cheat enough to make it really difficult for Trump to have any chance? Wouldn't you have wanted to cheat to the extent that matching the poll numbers was the goal?

I also read Fox News. Which is reporting the same. They actually gave Arizona to Biden. But obviously, they have all been corrupted into the mainstream media by now, I'm sure, regardless of what some of their talking heads might be spouting.

So flip this for me. If Trump was in the lead now, with a good path but not called, and Biden was crying foul, because the polls had him at such higher percentages, what would you guys be saying?

[doodle]

If there's issues with ballots, why the heck did dems do so bad on house and senate seats? Why not go for the whole enchilada?

Really, why just Trump, and why with such a razor thin margin? Wouldn't you want to cheat enough to make it really difficult for Trump to have any chance? Wouldn't you have wanted to cheat to the extent that matching the poll numbers was the goal?

I also read Fox News. Which is reporting the same. They actually gave Arizona to Biden. But obviously, they have all been corrupted into the mainstream media by now, I'm sure, regardless of what some of their talking heads might be spouting.

So flip this for me. If Trump was in the lead now, with a good path but not called, and Biden was crying foul, because the polls had him at such higher percentages, what would you guys be saying?

Heads I win, tails you lose. This is what literally drives me up the wall. These people aren't dumb, they are just so convinced that their truth is the truth that they will literally attempt to bend space and time to avoid any cognitive dissonance. The messy complexity of the world must fit into neat bible like parables of virtue and vice. Little stories that make sense. There is no question you can ask them that is beyond the capacity of their minds to fabricate a plausible explanation. It's a neverending merry go round.

[doodle]

RIP 401k. As soon as biden gets his dentures in and takes his geritol he coming for you. He won't stop till he's taking 99% of what you earn and handing it out to all the baby momma's. Robert Lee statues are going to be replaced by marx and lenin. Bill gates is going to microchip everyone! Flee! Flee while you still can!

[doodle]

We should settle elections with no holds barred cage matches. The institutions of democracy aren't to be trusted. Last man standing gets to be god king but must face yearly challenger.

Legislation will be settled in same fashion

[Mark Leavy]

We should settle elections with no holds barred cage matches. The institutions of democracy aren't to be trusted. Last man standing gets to be god king but must face yearly challenger.

Legislation will be settled in same fashion

I like the old school traditions. I want my funeral to be my corpse on a small raft in a lake that's set on fire by a flaming arrow from the coast. Burials are for pussies.

Damn, Tom. I've been telling that to anyone who asks for 20 years. Except, instead of a raft, I want a Viking long boat. And a piper on shore playing Amazing Grace.

Beau_Geste_1939_film_poster.jpg (37.93 KiB) Viewed 5028 times

you guys are weird.... LOL I have been pushing my friends and family for the environmentally questionable and illegal viking funeral for years as well...
push me out light me up and run from the law.... good send off...

[doodle]

We should settle elections with no holds barred cage matches. The institutions of democracy aren't to be trusted. Last man standing gets to be god king but must face yearly challenger.

Legislation will be settled in same fashion

I like the old school traditions. I want my funeral to be my corpse on a small raft in a lake that's set on fire by a flaming arrow from the coast. Burials are for pussies.

Except it's such a perfectly good waste of matter. Much better to recycle yourself back into the earth than waste all that energy as dissipated heat.

[yankees60]

If there's issues with ballots, why the heck did dems do so bad on house and senate seats? Why not go for the whole enchilada?

Really, why just Trump, and why with such a razor thin margin? Wouldn't you want to cheat enough to make it really difficult for Trump to have any chance? Wouldn't you have wanted to cheat to the extent that matching the poll numbers was the goal?

I also read Fox News. Which is reporting the same. They actually gave Arizona to Biden. But obviously, they have all been corrupted into the mainstream media by now, I'm sure, regardless of what some of their talking heads might be spouting.

So flip this for me. If Trump was in the lead now, with a good path but not called, and Biden was crying foul, because the polls had him at such higher percentages, what would you guys be saying?

Oftentimes you ask just too good questions!!! I'd not like to be on the receiving end of them!

Vinny

[yankees60]

Really, why just Trump, and why with such a razor thin margin? Wouldn't you want to cheat enough to make it really difficult for Trump to have any chance? Wouldn't you have wanted to cheat to the extent that matching the poll numbers was the goal?

Seems simple and obvious to me. If you were going to submit fraudulent ballots, then submitting 100k fraudulent ballots is both logistically easier and gives you less chance of getting caught than submitting the 1 million fraudulent ballots required to show the estimated 10% lead.

First, to submit 1 million fraudulent ballots, the total vote count would be far more skewed than with only 100k.

Second, a random audit of ballots would be 10x more likely to pull a fraudulent ballot at random from the total pool that comes back as such if you dropped 1 million in versus 100k.

My bias is that I want Trump to win, and I’m willing to stick to the hope that there is some merit to the fraud ballot theory. I’m not claiming there is facts or evidence, because I have no way of personally knowing.

It would be no different than a grieving parent who is watching their child die of terminal cancer and the chaplain offers to pray for them.

There might be some truth to the fraud ballots, and there probably is some truth to it. But I have no way of knowing and it’s too early for any news source to know for sure.

What I do know is liberals HAAAATTTTTEEEE Orangeman and if ever there was a time for people to challenge their ethics and cheat an election, this would be it.

My mathematical hypothesis is:

Yes, it’s totally possible for people to cheat an election, it happens around the world and the US is not immune.

Yes, it’s illegal and unethical to cheat an election.

People skew their ethics and are willing to do illegal things in times of desperation.

Orangeman bad. Orangeman evil. Orangeman worse than Hitler.

People would be willing to cheat an election to get rid of the second coming of Hitler.

So... yeah, I totally see it within the realm of possibility that there’s fraud going on.

I’d say there’s 100% certainty some level of fraud is happening. And happens every election.

Oh, you live in California but bought a second home in AZ and you wanted your liberal vote to matter so you registered to vote in Arizona? Well that’s cheating. If 2 people did it, no big deal. But a few thousand people and you stole an entire election. Maybe even a few hundred people, all working separately, not knowing what the other did.

Oh you live in NYC but moved to Florida for covid times in an air bnb? Screw it and make your vote count, register to vote in FL. Steal an election.

I remain unconvinced from anything you wrote that there is some concerted effort from some unnamed group of people to steal the election.

If there were they'd be stupid to ever let it ever be this close.

I treat it the same way as when I friend adamantly told me that the 1986 World Series was fixed. Does anyone here believe that?

Vinny