Gyroscopic Investing

lol and there's me: the Canadian.

I REALLY feel left out when reading these conversations about EE bonds, I bonds, and the like.

I read these threads and I'm just like "What are these dudes going on about anyway???"

smithers you probably know more about US government debt than 90% of Americans. The varieties of bonds aren't too complicated, it's the tax considerations and where you can buy them that are confusing.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:50 am smithers

Man, I'm rolling with that s%#t.


Everyone on the board now has permission to call me smithers.

God I love this forum.

Real US debt levels could be a shocking 2,000% of GDP

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/real-us ... gests.html

I felt stupid when I sold my TLT a few days ago.

Now you feel good??

TLT sure has come back down to earth. These cycles are quite interesting to watch. Like it picks up speed when rolling downhill.

Volatility seems to be the new norm. To some degree I'm used to that with stocks and gold. But bonds should not be bouncing all over the place.

they have been making moves on par with stocks falling hundreds of points. 1.50-2% falls are a lot

Wolf Richter
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/09/15/the-w ... nd-market/

I like seeing these kinds of bumps in gold and bonds, because they tell us something very important: despite the rise of cryptocurrencies, low interest rates etc they still operate exactly as the Permanent Portfolio needs them to, during times of market stress.

Next time I check the portfolio, I'll rebalance if indicated or buy lagging assets with the new cash. With no hesitation. And I'm in no hurry!

“These three new ETFs are designed to address the needs that our clients tell us are most important to them,” Schwab also notes. “We are pleased to offer these new low cost ETFs now, as investors are increasingly looking to bond ETFs as a potential source of diversification, liquidity and income.

The Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF SCHQ, -1.02% follows the Bloomberg Barclays US Long Treasury Index and of the three ETFs highlighted here, may be the one destined for the best near-term performance if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates once or twice before the end of this year.

“Long government funds concentrate on bonds backed by the U.S. government or by government-linked agencies,” according to Schwab. “Because these funds have durations of more than six years, they are more sensitive to interest rates, and thus riskier, than funds that have shorter durations.”

With an ER of only 0.06%, SCHQ is definitely worth a look for PP investors. That's the same as SPTL and less than half the cost of TLT.

We're now at that weird, sick place where 1-year Jumbo CDs from my local credit union have APR 2.06%, for which you'd have to go out to 20+ years on a US Treasury (sigh).

The ghost of Bernanke, I swear.

A nasty day in LTTs. I'm phobic about them and days like today just confirm the sentiment.

What did you think of the almost 20% increase?

The inversion of the Treasury yield curve disappeared today. The entire curve is now positive from the 3 month T bill to the 30 year T bond. I first noticed the present inversion between the 2 and 3 year T bill in Dec. 2018. Hard to say whether this development portends an end to lower interest rates or the likelihood of a recession.

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:55 am What did you think of the almost 20% increase?

I did what any speculator would, bought TLT in June sold high near the peak. I still hate it.

ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:06 pm

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:55 am What did you think of the almost 20% increase?

I did what any speculator would, bought TLT in June sold high near the peak. I still hate it.

I hereby rename thee...Bondtholomew

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:52 pm

ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:06 pm

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:55 am What did you think of the almost 20% increase?

I did what any speculator would, bought TLT in June sold high near the peak. I still hate it.

I hereby rename thee...Bondtholomew

jhogue wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:27 am Hard to say whether this development portends an end to lower interest rates or the likelihood of a recession.

Well, given that the yield curve inversion so far hasn't predicted anything, I'd say you're almost right. Except substitute "impossible" for "hard".

p.s. ochotona you are hereby forevermore "bondtholomew"! Love it.

sophie wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:00 am p.s. ochotona you are hereby forevermore "bondtholomew"! Love it.

No, it's "longbondtholomew", or maybe "Longfellow Bondtholomew". I love bonds 10 years and shorter.

Ad Orientem is Long Bond Silver.

BondtholeMEOW