Gyroscopic Investing

Yep. I love that people can make a living off of it.
Turns out you *can* profit from predictions, but only if you are the predictor. And you don't have to be right!

My rebalance for Jan has turned from cash going into about 50% bonds and 50% gold and selling some stocks to

6% bonds, 17% gold and 75% stocks.

I'm not sure I like the turn of this....

My PP at a low for the year now.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm My PP at a low for the year now.

They have medicine for that now. :-)

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm My PP at a low for the year now.

They have medicine for that now. :-)

That crosses my mind every damn time I use pp in a sentence.

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm My PP at a low for the year now.

They have medicine for that now. :-)

That crosses my mind every damn time I use pp in a sentence.

HAH!

It’s funniest when people are arguing about the strategy and keep saying “PP” in the middle of a bunch of serious statements.

A lot of the stock market selling he's going to turn out to be tax-loss harvesting. people talk about a Santa Claus rally but the Santa Claus rally really doesn't statistically take place until after Christmas.

Postscript Dec 25 - Lance Roberts looking for 2620-2650 as a possible oversold rally target.

Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.

+1. Time in the market not timing the market.

Not every day you see 1000 points, wow.

Still, my rebalance is now buy 98% stocks, a sliver of bonds, and actually selling gold. Interesting.

We'll see what that looks like when I really will rebalance in early Jan after contributing to my IRAs.

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.

+1. Time in the market not timing the market.

https://web.archive.org/web/20170911171 ... -time.html

I took a look. While I agree with the author that holding stocks long term does not magically alleviate risk and turn them into bonds, it is the only way to fly if you are going to hold stocks at all. I mean I would rather shun equities altogether rather than try to time. How bout you?

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:42 am

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.

+1. Time in the market not timing the market.

https://web.archive.org/web/20170911171 ... -time.html

My objective is to have enough assets I don't have to worry about it.

Ned Davis Research, in their monthly outlook, has lowered the stock allocation for their portfolio for risk averse investors to 40%. Normally it's 55%. This is the most cautious they've been since the GFC of 2008.

"On December 20, we reduced our recommended stock allocation by 10% and shifted it to bonds in our balanced account strategy. We have reached the downside extreme of what we would ever recommend for stock allocation, which has ranged from 40% to an upside limit of 70% since first constraining the allocation in 2008."

The Buffet Indicator is at 130. My total stock allocation right now is just under 50%.

Dow is now out of correction territory.

Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting? A New Model Suggests “Yes”

GMO White Paper, Marn Tarlie, January 2019

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx16Ir ... sp=sharing

Key Points
■ A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble.
■ Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundamentals.
■ Our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions established in Q1 2018 – as usual, we were early – is to own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows.

Bulls dont die of old age. Where's the malinvestment? China could poop the bed. Oil could go up, if high rates squeeze frackers

boglerdude wrote: ↑Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:19 am Bulls dont die of old age. Where's the malinvestment? China could poop the bed. Oil could go up, if high rates squeeze frackers

Malinvestment... Everything?

Buying back shares with covenant lite BBB corporate debt (wink) instead of property, plant, equipment, R&D?

Plants to build what? There's ample global industrial capacity

There was a good quote in The Age Of Stagnation by Satyajit Das where a corporate CEO said something like "Money isn't the problem. I can go out tomorrow and get a billion dollars at 0% interest. The problem I have is; what am I going to do with it? What am I going to spend it on?" They don't seem to have good ideas for it, so they buy back shares.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:52 am There was a good quote in The Age Of Stagnation by Satyajit Das where a corporate CEO said something like "Money isn't the problem. I can go out tomorrow and get a billion dollars at 0% interest. The problem I have is; what am I going to do with it? What am I going to spend it on?" They don't seem to have good ideas for it, so they buy back shares.

Like all of the Stars Wars sequels still had to invoke the frickin Death Star. Completely out of ideas, so buy back shares, get my bonus, pump and dump.

Not only do you appear to read a book a week, Kriegs, but you also have excellent recall.
Seems that way.
If it's anything denser than Stephen King, I can't read a book in a week.

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:46 am Not only do you appear to read a book a week, Kriegs, but you also have excellent recall.
Seems that way.
If it's anything denser than Stephen King, I can't read a book in a week.

“A reader lives a thousand lives before he dies. The man who never reads lives only one.”
- George RR Martin*


* writer of books of equal density as Stephen King

They’re also fans of each other.