Gyroscopic Investing

When I saw that gold was up over 3% today, I thought to myself 'Damn, that guy Libertarian666 is up huge today!'  You have a bold allocation, I commend you on following your own path.

Austen Heller wrote: When I saw that gold was up over 3% today, I thought to myself 'Damn, that guy Libertarian666 is up huge today!'  You have a bold allocation, I commend you on following your own path.

Thanks! Yes, this was a very good day. Last week was okay, and the week before that was very nice too. I appreciate it all the more after several months of down week after down week.

I will also say that given my terrible record of market timing, I was pretty sure that the bottom was near when I started to feel like I was missing something important and was going to watch my portfolio go down forever.

But then I said to myself:

"Exactly what has been solved that would make gold stay down? Nothing! In fact, the fiscal condition of the US (and most of the rest of the world) is getting worse and worse every day. And contrary to Keynes' claim, I can remain solvent at least as long as markets can remain irrational. So bring it on!"

And sure enough, that was pretty close to the bottom. So being contrarian works even if you are your own contrarian indicator!

Libertarian666 wrote: Exactly what has been solved that would make gold stay down? Nothing! In fact, the fiscal condition of the US (and most of the rest of the world) is getting worse and worse every day.

Amen brother! And I still cling to my belief that there's a cost of production around $900/ounce, so that forms a price floor, and if we see gold anywhere approaching the $1000 level, it's time to back up the truck.  Beep...beep.....beep

Austen Heller wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote: Exactly what has been solved that would make gold stay down? Nothing! In fact, the fiscal condition of the US (and most of the rest of the world) is getting worse and worse every day.

Amen brother! And I still cling to my belief that there's a cost of production around $900/ounce, so that forms a price floor, and if we see gold anywhere approaching the $1000 level, it's time to back up the truck.  Beep...beep.....beep

My truck has been backed up long ago, mostly at much lower prices. That does make it easier to stay the course...
But if I came into an inheritance or some such, I would definitely be a buyer at these prices.

annie in another thread wrote:Dennis Gartman says GOLD looksto be headed several hundred dollars higher.
He generally knows about these things.

Next week?
Or perhaps after dropping to 750 for 13 years?

That's what I want to know.

dualstow wrote:

annie in another thread wrote:Dennis Gartman says GOLD looksto be headed several hundred dollars higher.
He generally knows about these things.

Next week?
Or perhaps after dropping to 750 for 13 years?

That's what I want to know.

I'm pretty sure you're just being facetious here, but I don't think we'll ever see $750 gold again.  However, anything close and I'll sell the farm and load up.

$750 gold...for any extended period....equals....deflationary winter?!

AlanT wrote:

dualstow wrote: Next week?
Or perhaps after dropping to 750 for 13 years?

That's what I want to know.

I'm pretty sure you're just being facetious here, but I don't think we'll ever see $750 gold again.  However, anything close and I'll sell the farm and load up.

There's a bit of facetiousness, but I'm making a serious point. Another reason to hold the pp: we just don't know if gold is going to shoot up next week or go lower and languish for a while first. Did you think we'd ever see gold so close to 1000 again?

Yee ha!

Does that count? 

Who knew that gold would be holding up the PP?
Beside Libertarian666?

annieB wrote: Who knew that gold would be holding up the PP?
Beside Libertarian666?

I couldn't claim that I knew that would be the case. But looking at the past 10 years or so, it's not hard to see which asset class has done the best overall while not running out of headroom. And since the conditions that have caused that to happen have not gone away, but in fact have gotten much more intense, I see no reason to expect that to change.

annieB wrote: Who knew that gold would be holding up the PP?
Beside Libertarian666?

How long until the PP again reaches the point at which the gold torpedo sunk the ship?

dragoncar wrote:

annieB wrote: Who knew that gold would be holding up the PP?
Beside Libertarian666?

How long until the PP again reaches the point at which the gold torpedo sunk the ship?

I'm not sure I would put it quite that way. How much of the performance over the past 10 years is from the gold component?

Libertarian666 wrote:

dragoncar wrote:

annieB wrote: Who knew that gold would be holding up the PP?
Beside Libertarian666?

How long until the PP again reaches the point at which the gold torpedo sunk the ship?

I'm not sure I would put it quite that way. How much of the performance over the past 10 years is from the gold component?

I don't care about the last 10 years any more than I care that the sinking ship I'm on previously made years of successful voyages

dragoncar wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote:

dragoncar wrote: How long until the PP again reaches the point at which the gold torpedo sunk the ship?

I'm not sure I would put it quite that way. How much of the performance over the past 10 years is from the gold component?

I don't care about the last 10 years any more than I care that the sinking ship I'm on previously made years of successful voyages

If there is an investment strategy that works better than the PP for you, I recommend you adopt it.

dragoncar wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote:

dragoncar wrote: How long until the PP again reaches the point at which the gold torpedo sunk the ship?

I'm not sure I would put it quite that way. How much of the performance over the past 10 years is from the gold component?

I don't care about the last 10 years any more than I care that the sinking ship I'm on previously made years of successful voyages

I think of the PP as a pontoon boat with four separate flotation chambers and the boat won't sink as long as at least one chamber still has air in it.

MediumTex wrote:
I think of the PP as a pontoon boat with four separate flotation chambers and the boat won't sink as long as at least one chamber still has air in it.

Are you going to change the name of the website to "pontooninvesting.com?"

AdamA wrote:

MediumTex wrote:
I think of the PP as a pontoon boat with four separate flotation chambers and the boat won't sink as long as at least one chamber still has air in it.

Are you going to change the name of the website to "pontooninvesting.com?"

It would probably get a lot of traffic from men looking for a way to convince their wives that buying a boat is a wise financial decision.

The men visiting the site might be thinking things like "A pontoon boat is to a man as breast augmentation is to a woman" as they fantasized about all of the good times they were going to have with their new boats.

While we're at it, we probably ought to lock up "implantinvesting.com" as well.

MediumTex wrote: It would probably get a lot of traffic from men looking for a way to convince their wives that buying a boat is a wise financial decision.

The men visiting the site might be thinking things like "A pontoon boat is to a man as breast augmentation is to a woman" as they fantasized about all of the good times they were going to have with their new boats.

While we're at it, we probably ought to lock up "implantinvesting.com" as well.

Oddly enough, I've been looking at boats lately and have noticed that several related manufacturers now offer a "spousal conversion kit" on their website...

Boats and RVs:

Rent. Don't. Buy. Rent. Don't Buy.

Kriegsspiel wrote: Used to live in an RV. Now lives in a (kickass) van

It can definitely be done. Living as a nomad in your tricked-out vehicle could be totally awesome, you just have to be the right kind of person to do it.

But I don't think that's what flyingpylon had in mind. Owning a boat or an RV purely as a recreational affair, when you already have a job, a house, a car, a spouse, kids... it's a great way to lose a lot of money, have a variety of new and unpleasant experiences at your local DMV, and learn how much fun it isn't to drive or tow bus-sized vehicles. Don't ask me how I know this... 

Pointedstick wrote:

Kriegsspiel wrote: Used to live in an RV. Now lives in a (kickass) van

It can definitely be done. Living as a nomad in your tricked-out vehicle could be totally awesome, you just have to be the right kind of person to do it.

But I don't think that's what flyingpylon had in mind. Owning a boat or an RV purely as a recreational affair, when you already have a job, a house, a car, a spouse, kids... it's a great way to lose a lot of money, have a variety of new and unpleasant experiences at your local DMV, and learn how much fun it isn't to drive or tow bus-sized vehicles. Don't ask me how I know this... 

If you must buy an RV, buy one that is 3-5 years old.  It will be a less financially traumatic experience if you do it this way.

MediumTex wrote: If you must buy an RV, buy one that is 3-5 years old.  It will be a less financially traumatic experience if you do it this way.

Just don't get any ideas.

RVs can lead to bad things.

Pointedstick wrote: Boats and RVs:

Rent. Don't. Buy. Rent. Don't Buy.

LOL... yes, I generally agree.  Or at the very least, buy used.  The depreciation hit for new boats appears to be even larger than that of cars.  There seem to be plenty of good used boats on the market to choose from.