Gyroscopic Investing

Where to Invest, 2020

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/inves ... -2020.html

4. The election trumps everything.
Before worrying about the 2020 presidential election, investors must first parse the potential fallout from a presidential impeachment—or not. The view on Wall Street is that even if President Trump is impeached, his removal from office is unlikely, and the exercise will turn out to be neutral for stocks. “The whole impeachment process is more political theater than anything else,” says Phil Orlando, chief stock strategist at Federated Investors.

And although the election promises to be a nail-biting affair, consider that, dating back to 1833, stocks have returned an average of 6% in presidential election years, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In terms of election outcomes, the worst for stocks historically has been a Republican president with a split Congress, according to RBC Capital Markets (with 2019 being a glaring contradiction). Going back to 1933, whenever that leadership configuration has been in place, the S&P 500 has returned just 4% annualized. The best returns, 14% annualized, come under a Democratic president and a split Congress.
No sector is more in the policy crosshairs than health care, with insurers and drug makers buffeted by proposals to curb prescription prices and expand Medicare. These are variations on familiar themes, and health care stocks often lag ahead of U.S. elections, reports Goldman Sachs, falling behind the S&P 500 by a median of seven percentage points in the 12 months preceding the 11 presidential elections since 1976. As a result, Goldman recommends that investors tilt away from health care stocks. Investors should tread carefully with other sectors most at risk of potential policy changes, including energy (climate risk disclosures, carbon emissions regulations, fracking bans) and financials (more regulation, caps on credit card interest, student debt forgiveness).

I wonder if this has mostly to do with expectations at the starting point. If the expectations are higher going in, the starting point will be higher. Leading to lower returns. And v v.

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:25 pm I wonder if this has mostly to do with expectations at the starting point. If the expectations are higher going in, the starting point will be higher. Leading to lower returns. And v v.

Are you referring to expectations for the time period between election and inauguration?

That could be for that time period. However, the returns are for each year of the presidency.

Vinny

According to the chart, I have a 50% chance of an average of 13% or greater returns next year.

Someday, they should teach math in schools.
Ha! But what would be the fun of that?

Mark

What are the returns for a puppet President operated by far-left extremists?

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:35 am What are the returns for a puppet President operated by far-left extremists?

And one who has said he wants to end "shareholder capitalism".