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Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:23 am
by Xan
Fascinating article:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... re/616993/
It describes a professor who is a Hari Seldon-like figure. (We've referred to Harry Browne here as our own Hari Seldon in the past.) Ten years ago he identified a "dark triad" that we're heading for, and correctly predicted that 2020 would be a mess, with worse to come.
The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions.
The idea of "elite overproduction", with examples of today there being too many lawyers and in medieval France of too many nobles without enough castles and land to go around, is an idea I had never heard before.
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:27 am
by doodle
The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions.
That doesn't sound familiar to you? It seems like everytime those issues are brought up that person gets sidelined as a communist.
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:39 am
by Xan
doodle wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:27 am
The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions.
That doesn't sound familiar to you? It seems like everytime those issues are brought up that person gets sidelined as a communist.
Yes, except "elite" isn't necessarily a matter of money. The guy writing the article for the magazine wearing a holey T-shirt is one of the elite. Regardless, that part isn't the part that was new: the idea of "elite overproduction" is something new, to me anyway.
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:49 am
by Smith1776
Xan, what you're specifying as elite overproduction also seems to dovetail with the idea that there's too many college graduates with useless liberal arts degrees and not enough people who actually know how to do stuff like plumbing or welding.
I haven't read the article yet but will.
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:53 am
by Kriegsspiel
On the other hand, you have people like Gregory Clark, who has the best non-fiction book titles of anyone*. He's done a lot of work on how the overproduction of elites, particularly in England, filtered down and was probably one of the main reason for massive progress.
* All Hemingway puns:
A Farewell To Alms
The Son Also Rises
For Whom The Bell Curve Tolls
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:57 am
by Kriegsspiel
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:49 am
Xan, what you're specifying as elite overproduction also seems to dovetail with the idea that there's too many college graduates with useless liberal arts degrees and not enough people who actually know how to do stuff like plumbing or welding.
I haven't read the article yet but will.
Gregory Clark talks about how the overproduced elites in England filtered down and became tradesmen and mechanics. I think he'd agree that a lot of the smart people languishing as adjunct professors or writers could have had successful plumbing or welding businesses. Anyone familiar with The Millionaire Next Door books knows that most wealthy people are wealthy because they started a company like that. He and Mike Rowe probably would have a stellar conversation, come to think of it.
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:08 am
by Xan
Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:57 am
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:49 am
Xan, what you're specifying as elite overproduction also seems to dovetail with the idea that there's too many college graduates with useless liberal arts degrees and not enough people who actually know how to do stuff like plumbing or welding.
I haven't read the article yet but will.
Gregory Clark talks about how the overproduced elites in England filtered down and became tradesmen and mechanics. I think he'd agree that a lot of the smart people languishing as adjunct professors or writers could have had successful plumbing or welding businesses. Anyone familiar with The Millionaire Next Door books knows that most wealthy people are wealthy because they started a company like that. He and Mike Rowe probably would have a stellar conversation, come to think of it.
That makes a lot of sense.
And to answer the earlier points, I don't think he's saying the problem is elites themselves, or elites having too much money or power or whatever. It's along the lines of Smith's summary: too many people have done all the right things to become elites, but still aren't, because there are only so many elite "slots".
If a lot of these people were to take up trades then everyone would be better off, for sure. But they believe that they should be running the world and there just isn't room for everyone to do that.
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:35 pm
by pp4me
The definitive answer is no. History cannot predict the future. Pretty sure that's correct.
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:13 pm
by Mountaineer
I’d say yes with qualifications.
On a macro level, most likely. Examples being attributes common to the rise and fall of empires, or even what makes a small business successful. Or does belief in a higher being result in a life that is more stress free than having a belief in self?
On a micro level, much more iffy. Does eating a keto diet assure long life? Or eating an all carb diet boost energy more than an all whale blubber diet? A definite maybe.
My two cents.
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 5:50 pm
by Hal
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:34 pm
by yankees60
Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:57 am
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:49 am
Xan, what you're specifying as elite overproduction also seems to dovetail with the idea that there's too many college graduates with useless liberal arts degrees and not enough people who actually know how to do stuff like plumbing or welding.
I haven't read the article yet but will.
Gregory Clark talks about how the overproduced elites in England filtered down and became tradesmen and mechanics. I think he'd agree that a lot of the smart people languishing as adjunct professors or writers could have had successful plumbing or welding businesses.
Anyone familiar with The Millionaire Next Door books knows that most wealthy people are wealthy because they started a company like that. He and Mike Rowe probably would have a stellar conversation, come to think of it.
That was one part of it. The other part of it was the example of the two brothers. One brother was the lawyer making $150,000 a year while the other brother was a teacher making $80,000 a year. The lawyer brother had zero savings since he lived (car, house) to match his social status. The teacher brother was the millionaire next door because he had the cheap cars and house and lived below his means.
The book was a tremendous affirmation of my lifestyle which was otherwise weird compared to the typical American, e.g., spend as soon as get and live beyond means.
Vinny
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:36 pm
by yankees60
pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:35 pm
The definitive answer is no. History cannot predict the future. Pretty sure that's correct.
Cannot predict it. But oftentimes it rhymes.
Truth to the statement that "those who cannot repeat it are condemned to repeat it."
Finally, when it comes to human behavior how many human zebras change their spots?
Vinny
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:21 am
by Mountaineer
yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:36 pm
pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:35 pm
The definitive answer is no. History cannot predict the future. Pretty sure that's correct.
Cannot predict it. But oftentimes it rhymes.
Truth to the statement that "those who cannot repeat it are condemned to repeat it."
Finally, when it comes to human behavior how many human zebras change their spots?
Vinny
Isn't it "....
remember it are condemned ...." (or a variation thereof)?
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/George_Santayana
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:11 am
by yankees60
Mountaineer wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:21 am
yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:36 pm
pp4me wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:35 pm
The definitive answer is no. History cannot predict the future. Pretty sure that's correct.
Cannot predict it. But oftentimes it rhymes.
Truth to the statement that "those who cannot repeat it are condemned to repeat it."
Finally, when it comes to human behavior how many human zebras change their spots?
Vinny
Isn't it "....
remember it are condemned ...." (or a variation thereof)?
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/George_Santayana
Of course you are correct! I definitely need to be more disciplined and review everything I put here PRIOR to hitting "Submit"!
Vinny
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:16 am
by Kriegsspiel
I believe zebras have stripes.
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:04 am
by yankees60
Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:16 am
I believe zebras have stripes.
Of course!!! I was supposed to zerbra changes its stripes or leopard changes its spots!
Vinny
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:07 am
by Kriegsspiel
Vinny was deep into the booze last night
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:09 am
by yankees60
Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:07 am
Vinny was deep into the booze last night
Just at the end of a long, extended work day!
Vinny
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:40 pm
by Mountaineer
yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:09 am
Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:07 am
Vinny was deep into the booze last night
Just at the end of a long, extended work day!
Vinny
It's all good my good man! All good.
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:48 pm
by Kriegsspiel
Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:53 am
On the other hand, you have people like Gregory Clark, who has the best non-fiction book titles of anyone*. He's done a lot of work on how the overproduction of elites, particularly in England, filtered
down and was probably one of the main reason for massive progress.
* All Hemingway puns:
A Farewell To Alms
The Son Also Rises
For Whom The Bell Curve Tolls
. . .
Gregory Clark talks about how the overproduced elites in England filtered down and became tradesmen and mechanics. I think he'd agree that a lot of the smart people languishing as adjunct professors or writers could have had successful plumbing or welding businesses. Anyone familiar with The Millionaire Next Door books knows that most wealthy people are wealthy because they started a company like that. He and Mike Rowe probably would have a stellar conversation, come to think of it.
An obvious target, sure, but talking about predicting the future:
The historian and author Niall Ferguson, who was born in Glasgow, tweeted: “As if to illustrate my warnings about wokeism at UK universities, Greg Clark’s talk at the University of Glasgow was just ‘postponed’ because of objections to the title.”
link
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Sun Feb 28, 2021 8:41 pm
by I Shrugged
It does seem like a lot of the antifa crowd are angry liberal arts graduates.
Re: Can History Predict the Future?
Posted: Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:32 am
by dualstow
Xan wrote: ↑Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:23 am
Fascinating article:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... re/616993/
It describes a professor who is a Hari Seldon-like figure. (We've referred to Harry Browne here as our own Hari Seldon in the past.) Ten years ago he identified a "dark triad" that we're heading for, and correctly predicted that 2020 would be a mess, with worse to come.
The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions.
The idea of "elite overproduction", with examples of today there being too many lawyers and in medieval France of too many nobles without enough castles and land to go around, is an idea I had never heard before.
I love the idea of the “mathematization of history.”
This article frightens me.
