Gyroscopic Investing

Well, received the latest Jim Rickards newsletter, and guess what, seems rather PPish

A portfolio robust to slower growth, lower interest rates, and popping asset bubbles would include: 10% gold, 30% cash,
20% high-quality government notes, 20% in land or residential real estate, and the remainder of 20% in stocks with emphasis on energy, artificial intelligence, agriculture, natural resources, defence, and healthcare.

Considering HB said not to consider real estate in a PP, you have roughly 1/4 each in the remaining asset classes.

As an aside, was reading up on Exters pyramid again. Any thoughts why
1. Stocks and real estate are where they are. How do you default on land & shares?
2. I am guessing non monetary commodities are things like wheat. How do you default on a silo of wheat?
and finally,
3. Where would you put silver? A non monetary commodity?

Haven't posted much on PP topics as I am very happy with the portfolio allocation. Heck, even my brother who is right into trading, has adopted the PP for his retirement funds!

Hal wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:56 am Well, received the latest Jim Rickards newsletter, and guess what, seems rather PPish

A portfolio robust to slower growth, lower interest rates, and popping asset bubbles would include: 10% gold, 30% cash,
20% high-quality government notes, 20% in land or residential real estate, and the remainder of 20% in stocks with emphasis on energy, artificial intelligence, agriculture, natural resources, defence, and healthcare.

When I look at my entire allocation, I'm at

11% gold
17% real estate
23% bond barbell
49% stocks

So inverting his stock and barbell allocations. But then again, it's not a stretch to be more bullish than Jim Rickards IIRC he's more of a currency-debacle kind of guy, so I'd think he would be more into gold/crypto than government debt.

Hal wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:56 am
Well, received the latest Jim Rickards newsletter, and guess what, seems rather PPish

A portfolio robust to slower growth, lower interest rates, and popping asset bubbles would include: 10% gold, 30% cash,
20% high-quality government notes, 20% in land or residential real estate, and the remainder of 20% in stocks with emphasis on energy, artificial intelligence, agriculture, natural resources, defence, and healthcare.

Considering HB said not to consider real estate in a PP, you have roughly 1/4 each in the remaining asset classes.

As an aside, was reading up on Exters pyramid again. Any thoughts why
1. Stocks and real estate are where they are. How do you default on land & shares?
2. I am guessing non monetary commodities are things like wheat. How do you default on a silo of wheat?
and finally,
3. Where would you put silver? A non monetary commodity?

Haven't posted much on PP topics as I am very happy with the portfolio allocation. Heck, even my brother who is right into trading, has adopted the PP for his retirement funds!

A few questions and comments:

1) Rickards had an recommended allocation in his last book. How different is that from that?

2) Did he ever give an update of the results from his recommended allocation in the book?

3) I believe he stated in the book that everyone six months one is to supposed to do a re-evaluation and make the corresponding allocation changes. Was this his first recommended allocation change since the book came out?

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:52 am

Hal wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:56 am Well, received the latest Jim Rickards newsletter, and guess what, seems rather PPish

A portfolio robust to slower growth, lower interest rates, and popping asset bubbles would include: 10% gold, 30% cash,
20% high-quality government notes, 20% in land or residential real estate, and the remainder of 20% in stocks with emphasis on energy, artificial intelligence, agriculture, natural resources, defence, and healthcare.

Considering HB said not to consider real estate in a PP, you have roughly 1/4 each in the remaining asset classes.

As an aside, was reading up on Exters pyramid again. Any thoughts why
1. Stocks and real estate are where they are. How do you default on land & shares?
2. I am guessing non monetary commodities are things like wheat. How do you default on a silo of wheat?
and finally,
3. Where would you put silver? A non monetary commodity?

Haven't posted much on PP topics as I am very happy with the portfolio allocation. Heck, even my brother who is right into trading, has adopted the PP for his retirement funds!

A few questions and comments:

1) Rickards had an recommended allocation in his last book. How different is that from that?

2) Did he ever give an update of the results from his recommended allocation in the book?

3) I believe he stated in the book that everyone six months one is to supposed to do a re-evaluation and make the corresponding allocation changes. Was this his first recommended allocation change since the book came out?

30% cash in a near zero interest rate environment and stated inflation running at over 4% ??

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:52 am
1) Rickards had an recommended allocation in his last book. How different is that from that?

Found it
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=11786&p=226159&hili ... ds#p221390

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:15 am 30% cash in a near zero interest rate environment and stated inflation running at over 4% ??

Cash is kind of like an option on future assets, and one has to pay a premium for options.

What happened to the "fine art" that Rickards used to recommend as part of a balanced doomer portfolio? Has he sold it all off? It seems like he changes his mind just often enough to be perceived as relevant.

Hal wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:45 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:52 am

1) Rickards had an recommended allocation in his last book. How different is that from that?

Found it
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=11786&p=226159&hili ... ds#p221390

Thank!

From the excerpt I had posted from above:

"The forgoing overview of market conditions, rigorous modeling, and accurate forecasting and the survey of asset classes provide visibility on an optimal portfolio asset allocation that is robust to deflation, is robust to inflation, preserves wealth in a continuing crisis, and provides attractive risk-adjusted returns in both the fast- and slow-recovery scenarios. It appears as follows:



Cash

30 percent of investible assets

Gold

10 percent of investible assets

Residential real estate

20 percent of investible assets

Treasury notes

20 percent of investible assets

Equities

10 percent of investible assets

Alternatives

10 percent of investible assets"

What you had above:

"A portfolio robust to slower growth, lower interest rates, and popping asset bubbles would include: 10% gold, 30% cash,
20% high-quality government notes, 20% in land or residential real estate, and the remainder of 20% in stocks with emphasis on energy, artificial intelligence, agriculture, natural resources, defence, and healthcare."

APPEARS NEAR IDENTICAL?

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:48 am

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:15 am 30% cash in a near zero interest rate environment and stated inflation running at over 4% ??

Cash is kind of like an option on future assets, and one has to pay a premium for options.

Yeah but with no end in sight to low rates, I have a hard time putting any money into something that is guaranteed to lose whatever the inflation rate is.

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:15 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:48 am

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:15 am 30% cash in a near zero interest rate environment and stated inflation running at over 4% ??

Cash is kind of like an option on future assets, and one has to pay a premium for options.

Yeah but with no end in sight to low rates, I have a hard time putting any money into something that is guaranteed to lose whatever the inflation rate is.

23:35 min mark might be of use
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPuH-OjilW0

Hal wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:41 pm

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:15 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:48 am

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:15 am 30% cash in a near zero interest rate environment and stated inflation running at over 4% ??

Cash is kind of like an option on future assets, and one has to pay a premium for options.

Yeah but with no end in sight to low rates, I have a hard time putting any money into something that is guaranteed to lose whatever the inflation rate is.

23:35 min mark might be of use
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPuH-OjilW0

Rick rule is interesting. I first heard of the PP through him during a Q and A session. It was clear he liked it but couldn’t promote it.