Gyroscopic Investing

Plus interesting insights on the value of backtesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbvu7eSnAnk

Hal wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 6:18 pm Plus interesting insights on the value of backtesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbvu7eSnAnk

Executive summary that applies to some of the hand wringing about gold: the gold market is not a “what’s happening today” market. It is looking forward, longer term. And the gold market believes that the Fed will get inflation under control.

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:13 pm

Hal wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 6:18 pm Plus interesting insights on the value of backtesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbvu7eSnAnk

Executive summary that applies to some of the hand wringing about gold: the gold market is not a “what’s happening today” market. It is looking forward, longer term. And the gold market believes that the Fed will get inflation under control.

Such is the case with all assets (forward looking).

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 5:45 pm

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:13 pm

Hal wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 6:18 pm Plus interesting insights on the value of backtesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbvu7eSnAnk

Executive summary that applies to some of the hand wringing about gold: the gold market is not a “what’s happening today” market. It is looking forward, longer term. And the gold market believes that the Fed will get inflation under control.

Such is the case with all assets (forward looking).

I don’t feel as if stonks are all that forward looking. More like the greater fool plan.

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:03 am

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 5:45 pm

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:13 pm

Hal wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 6:18 pm Plus interesting insights on the value of backtesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbvu7eSnAnk

Executive summary that applies to some of the hand wringing about gold: the gold market is not a “what’s happening today” market. It is looking forward, longer term. And the gold market believes that the Fed will get inflation under control.

Such is the case with all assets (forward looking).

I don’t feel as if stonks are all that forward looking. More like the greater fool plan.

IMHO - I think value stocks are the least forward looking because if you buy at the right price you don’t need earnings appreciation. If I can find a good 12 PE stock I would be happy with the 8 percent earnings forever. I don’t need the stock to go up. It will go up (if the earnings at stay at least reasonably steady), but the price of the stock does not change my 8 percent returns.

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:37 pm

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:03 am

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 5:45 pm

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:13 pm

Hal wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 6:18 pm Plus interesting insights on the value of backtesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbvu7eSnAnk

Executive summary that applies to some of the hand wringing about gold: the gold market is not a “what’s happening today” market. It is looking forward, longer term. And the gold market believes that the Fed will get inflation under control.

Such is the case with all assets (forward looking).

I don’t feel as if stonks are all that forward looking. More like the greater fool plan.

IMHO - I think value stocks are the least forward looking because if you buy at the right price you don’t need earnings appreciation. If I can find a good 12 PE stock I would be happy with the 8 percent earnings forever. I don’t need the stock to go up. It will go up (if the earnings at stay at least reasonably steady), but the price of the stock does not change my 8 percent returns.

Huh ?

Is that a Belfast accent?

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:03 am I don’t feel as if stonks are all that forward looking. More like the greater fool plan.

In the long run, I feel the opposite. Gold has a purpose, but it’s not going to do something new in the future, and I don’t know that a huge new discovery of gold is good for gold holders. (Miners, of course, are another story. Different investment).

Companies can innovate. To invest in Apple or Tesla is about as forward looking as it gets, no? And overvaluation/greater fool is a short-term thing.

If the earnings stay consistent - I eventually get it back in a higher stock price or someone a tries to acquire the company or I get a big dividend one day. Is this unusual? It’s served me very well over the last many years. Basically value investing.

Actually there is little link between markets and profits

markets and growth and corporate profits have never been linked .

as much as we think higher profits lead to higher stock prices it really does not work like that .

markets are based on greed ,fear and perception not the here and now .

gains and corporate profits don't flow together more ofton than not.

in the book a random walk down wall street 548 nyse issues were tracked and analyed over 5 year periods and the results were the performance had no relationship between the technical and fundemental signals and the actual stock performance ..

ned davis research took another look at the relationship and going as far back as 1927 they found when profits rose more than:

20% the s&p returned a mere 1.3% in gains

10 to 20% saw 5.8% in gains

(-10% to + 10% in profits saw a 9.3% jump in gains

(-10%) to (-25%) drop in profits saw 28.6% gains

(-25%) and lower saw a -28% drop in share price.

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:03 am

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 5:45 pm

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:13 pm

Hal wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 6:18 pm Plus interesting insights on the value of backtesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbvu7eSnAnk

Executive summary that applies to some of the hand wringing about gold: the gold market is not a “what’s happening today” market. It is looking forward, longer term. And the gold market believes that the Fed will get inflation under control.

Such is the case with all assets (forward looking).

I don’t feel as if stonks are all that forward looking. More like the greater fool plan.

Could be...but then who is on the other side of the trade? Stocks ALWAYS have both a buyer and a seller.

If you find yourself a perennial bag holder, then perhaps "the market" is doing just fine but you are not doing so well "in the market."

This is all rhetorical but you get my point. The larger a stock is in market cap, I can assure you the more forward looking it is. But forward looking doesn't not mean accurate fortune telling. Forward looking means, what is known (and some publicly unknown) information is priced in as soon as it is known...and that process has done nothing but accelerate in the information age.

Kbg wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:16 am

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:03 am

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 5:45 pm

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:13 pm

Hal wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 6:18 pm
Plus interesting insights on the value of backtesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbvu7eSnAnk

Executive summary that applies to some of the hand wringing about gold: the gold market is not a “what’s happening today” market. It is looking forward, longer term. And the gold market believes that the Fed will get inflation under control.

Such is the case with all assets (forward looking).

I don’t feel as if stonks are all that forward looking. More like the greater fool plan.

Could be...but then who is on the other side of the trade? Stocks ALWAYS have both a buyer and a seller.

If you find yourself a perennial bag holder, then perhaps "the market" is doing just fine but you are not doing so well "in the market."

This is all rhetorical but you get my point. The larger a stock is in market cap, I can assure you the more forward looking it is. But forward looking doesn't not mean accurate fortune telling. Forward looking means, what is known (and some publicly unknown) information is priced in as soon as it is known...and that process has done nothing but accelerate in the information age.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis existed 45, 50 years ago when information would be considered extremely scarce compared to now when it is so readily available to all.

I’m sure there is a forward looking contingent among stock owners. But the overall feel is that stocks and funds are traded like short term commodities. “What’s the Fed gonna do next week?”

Doesn’t feel like anyone is doing the Warren Buffett thing.

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 3:10 pm I’m sure there is a forward looking contingent among stock owners. But the overall feel is that stocks and funds are traded like short term commodities. “What’s the Fed gonna do next week?”

Doesn’t feel like anyone is doing the Warren Buffett thing.

Dont' take this personally as an insult...but clearly you haven't read much serious investment literature as opposed to stuff for the masses.

There are significant economic and trading reasons why so much attention is paid to the Fed. I assume you have an understanding why the Fed matters for the macro economy, but the Fed's policy can also enhance or completely obliterate the potential profitability of various trading systems that are employed in the treasury rates, credit and foreign exchange markets at very large scale.

For sure markets get out of whack from time to time not denying that....but most of the time, they are pretty accurate and price appropriately. Big bucks are generally only made in today's world if you have insights (or good guesses) that something is out of whack.

While it sucks...it really should not be surprising the stock and bond markets are not doing well. They've been very pricey for several years now...mean reversion is gonna happen at some point.

Desert wrote: ↑Thu Jun 09, 2022 9:29 am ...
Mathjak is correct that stock prices look like a random walk in the short term, but over time you can see the valuations corresponding to earnings and discount rates. With gold, there are no cash flows, so no way to determine anything like a fair market value. So gold is always going to be less predictable than investment assets.

His occasional citing of data going back to 1927 notwithstanding, Mathjak is a short-term kind of guy. Or rather a "what has my portfolio done for me lately" kind of guy. (Is that fair to say, Mathjak?) Which is fine. And I've read a lot of books that talk about "bad company, good stock" and vice versa. In the long term, buying a broad stock index fund works because companies are producing some kind of value.

If it weren't for Harry Browne I don't think I'd have ever taken gold seriously.

Not correct at all .

I have my insight models for decades with one short exceptional time frame when I went mostly pp..

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:25 am Not correct at all .

I have my insight models for decades with one short exceptional time frame when I went mostly pp..

So you don't say on a regular basis, your portfolio is only as good as what it did for you yesterday, or something to that effect?

More specifically, for example when you wrote,

mathjak wrote:You know the saying what have you done for me lately ? It’s all that counts

you didn't mean it?

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=12459&p=236967#p236967

Not at all …I have been in the insight models for over 30 years .

But I have been tracking weekly in this down turn wellesly ,the pp and the insight income model

I added to my post above at the same time, so make sure you've read the whole thing.

I cant disclose the exact holdings since it is a paid subscription..but it is a 25% equity model with the rest assorted bond funds.
That is the fidelity insight newsletter portfolio

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Jun 09, 2022 2:07 pm

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:25 am Not correct at all .

I have my insight models for decades with one short exceptional time frame when I went mostly pp..

So you don't say on a regular basis, your portfolio is only as good as what it did for you yesterday, or something to that effect?

More specifically, for example when you wrote,

mathjak wrote:You know the saying what have you done for me lately ? It’s all that counts

you didn't mean it?

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=12459&p=236967#p236967

My portfolio determines my draw yearly ..the balance on 12/31 determines next years draw .

All that counts is what it does over my time frame .


Each day turns in to months and months in to years ..so what the past may have done is no longer important going forward

"If you consider the possible outcome of our Government failing to handle inflation, the gold prices will also skyrocket. I know that gold was always a reliable source of investment, but it gives a little reward for your investment price.

It's a risk diversifier. Some in-hand non-fiat currency/commodity. Whenever counter-party and/or fiat-currency risk arises, perhaps banks/markets closed due to a natural or man-made event, then holding some portable in-hand physical asset is better than not. When markets/circumstances are pricing assets to negative real yields then alternatives such as gold become favored.

The ancient Talmud advocated for safety to have one third in hand, one third buried/hidden away, one third in business/merchandise. Gold as either in-hand or buried/hidden away is a reasonable choice. If you bury away today that another finds in a century time then the finder is more inclined to be happier if that was gold than if it was Dollar Bills.

Hansel wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:52 am "If you consider the possible outcome of our Government failing to handle inflation, the gold prices will also skyrocket. I know that gold was always a reliable source of investment, but it gives a little reward for your investment price.

Hansel, where are you from?

Gold is a competitor to the dollar and also bonds , not equites .

While it shouldn’t have , the last 20 years gold has beaten equites .

As well as over most time frames the last two decades equities and gold has beaten equities and bonds

Not quite MJ.

Per PV...

As a general rule on several average rolling year computations equities outperform gold 1.5 to 2x in CAGR (gold lovers...this should get your attention)

For the last 3 years rolling equites/gold 9.52/8.54%

For the last 5 years rolling equities/gold 10.48/7.31%