Gyroscopic Investing

+13.8% Classic HBPP 4x25 (USA)

Rebalanced this fall when LTTs hit 15%, sold gold, stocks and cash, which were at around 27-28% each. Staying the course.

Classic 4x25!? Surely you must have a "variable" portfolio somewhere

My All-Terrain Portfolio clocked in at 5.19% for the year.

For Australia...

I'm up 17 percent. But its a bit of a frankenstein golden butterfly that is tech heavy.

for 2023 the final numbers for the models i use just posted

the fidelity insight conservative income model , which is 75% less volatile than the s&p , up just under 10%.

we typically keep about 5 -6 years of spending in this model along with 2 years of cash instruments .

the insight growth and income model up 18.26 % , that is 58% equities , our largest position with 10- 15 years spending , maybe even more

our 100% equities combo of

vti total market fund up 26%

berkshire class b up 15.4% , 25% less volatile then the s&p and holds all the rest of what isn’t in the other models ,we may never get to this

not enough history on the leveraged carolina reaper portfolio yet but it was up a bit since i bought it, only in play a few weeks.

so a very good year up multiple 6 figures over last year …let’s see what 2024 brings

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 5:45 am vti total market fund up 26%
berkshire class b up 15.4%

Two of my largest holdings.

We’re almost back up to our all-time high.
Of course, I made the mistake of going to inflationCalculator and looking at purchasing power. Not..quite…what it once was.

i like the combo because berkshire tempers the volatility of vti .

as i posted in the variable portfolio thread , i threw about 50k in to a leveraged risk parity portfolio as an experiment..considering it uses 3x leveraged equities and bonds with managed futures it has been pretty docile so far.

its goal is to have the returns of 60/40 while tempering volatility

dualstow wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:23 am

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 5:45 am
vti total market fund up 26%
berkshire class b up 15.4%

Two of my largest holdings.

We’re almost back up to our all-time high.
Of course, I made the mistake of going to inflationCalculator and looking at purchasing power. Not..quite…what it once was.

That is the same one I've been using for decades to calculate change in the value of the dollar.

Date from Google Finance:

Classic Euro PP 25x4 ETFs of Euro shares CEU + 14.08%, long bond MTH +7.64%, gold GBS +8.97% and short term bond MTA +3.26%, all traded Paris: average +8.49% in Euros

Classic US SPY + 24.81%, TLT -2.54%, GLD +12.69%, SHY +0.98%: average +8.75% in dollars

tarentola wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:11 am Classic US SPY + 24.81%, TLT -2.54%, GLD +12.69%, SHY +0.98%: average +8.75% in dollars

Not sure how I've got 13.8%. Will take another look.

Don't have an exact number but it looks like our investment accounts are up 14% to 15% this year. Those accounts are roughly 35% stocks, 15% gold and 50% short-term US debt. So we've avoided the negative impact of poor long bond returns but will also lose out should interest rates continue to decline on the 30-year. Our I-Bonds were up about 8% overall due to the recent bout of inflation and also holding a bunch from the 1999-2002 period when the fixed rate was between 2% & 3.6%.

But, to dualstow's point about not being back to all-time highs, I see that the "time-weighted rate of return" on our Fidelity accounts from 1/1/22 to 12/30/23 is only 2.15%, so still negative in real terms. Also, I figure some of what we have isn't real, at least not yet. I mean, both gold & stocks are at or near all-time highs.

a cnbc article states:

The benchmark S&P 500 ended the year with a 24.2% gain, …

An investor who had $500,000 in the S&P 500 index around 12 months ago, would have roughly $630,000 now, according to an analysis by Morningstar Direct.

Without really doing the calculation, wouldn’t that mean not a 24.2% gain but a 25+% gain?

dualstow wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 1:54 pm a cnbc article states:

The benchmark S&P 500 ended the year with a 24.2% gain, …

An investor who had $500,000 in the S&P 500 index around 12 months ago, would have roughly $630,000 now, according to an analysis by Morningstar Direct.

Without really doing the calculation, wouldn’t that mean not a 24.2% gain but a 25+% gain?

From $500,000 to $630,000 is a 26% gain but maybe that extra $10,000 or so is with dividends reinvested. Actually, over a single year, whether the dividends are reinvested or not wouldn't make much of a difference.

Ah, good point!

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 2:26 am I'm up 17 percent. But its a bit of a frankenstein golden butterfly that is tech heavy.

My GB is almost 17% as well, I'm using AVUV for SCV and the portfolio is skewed more heavily towards equities - 60/20/20 stocks/bonds/gold.

+12.99% YOY after a rebalance (and dividends reinvested), though I'm still slightly overweighted in cash, and underweight in LTT. After the bloodbath that was 2022, I'll take it!

14.2% for the year
2.7% for 3 years
7.4% for 5 years
5.4% for 10 years

Stocks have grown to 45% of the portfolio
Bonds 17%
Cash 23%
Gold 15%

I'm fine with those. I'd have huge gains taxes if I sold stocks. If you prefer, it can be construed as a PP + a VP of stocks.
About 75% of it would be a well-balanced PP, and the other 25% would be SP500 and FTSE 100 exUSA.

13.0% for me in 2023. I run a standard 4x4 PP, and I caught the falling LTT knife a few times during the year. With inflation at 3.1% (Nov-Nov), that's about 9.9% real. Sounds great, but for 2022 I was down 18.8% real, so I'm down about 10.8% real (0.812 x 1.099) over two years. I've now been running a PP for 10.5 years and my CAGR has been 5.3% nominal and 2.6% real.

From yahoo finance (adjusted closes, Dec 30 2022 to Dec 29 2023):
VTI +26.0%
TLT +2.8%
IAU +12.8%
SHY +4.2%
That averages to a PP of +11.5% nominal.

So the PP (and I) lost to Mr Money Mustache (100% stocks: 26.0%), bogleheads (60% stocks, 40% LTTs: 16.7%), and belangp (65% stocks, 35% gold: 21.4%). But it's not a competition, and I'm happy with that pretty solid year.

Pet Hog wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 11:53 pm 13.0% for me in 2023. I run a standard 4x4 PP, and I caught the falling LTT knife a few times during the year. With inflation at 3.1% (Nov-Nov), that's about 9.9% real. Sounds great, but for 2022 I was down 18.8% real, so I'm down about 10.8% real (0.812 x 1.099) over two years. I've now been running a PP for 10.5 years and my CAGR has been 5.3% nominal and 2.6% real.

From yahoo finance (adjusted closes, Dec 30 2022 to Dec 29 2023):
VTI +26.0%
TLT +2.8%
IAU +12.8%
SHY +4.2%
That averages to a PP of +11.5% nominal.

So the PP (and I) lost to Mr Money Mustache (100% stocks: 26.0%), bogleheads (60% stocks, 40% LTTs: 16.7%), and belangp (65% stocks, 35% gold: 21.4%). But it's not a competition, and I'm happy with that pretty solid year.

Yeah, it’s a good year for the PP. It performed as intended.

But for new and prospective PP investors, it’s worth pointing out that any stock heavy portfolio is going to beat the PP during good years for stocks.

My not so well balanced (but within the rebalance limits) PP gained 9.25%, and my VP (gold coins) gained 15%.
I plan to stick with PP for half my assets, and the other half in gold as my outlook for the future is generally negative, but I am only right about anything half the time.

dopplerdave wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 4:45 pm
My not so well balanced (but within the rebalance limits) PP gained 9.25%, and my VP (gold coins) gained 15%.
I plan to stick with PP for half my assets, and the other half in gold as my outlook for the future is generally negative, but I am only right about anything half the time.

In baseball if that was your batting average you'd be a first ballot Hall of Famer. On the other hand, if that was you fielding percentage, you'd not be playing anywhere at any level.

9.3% nominal, 5.2% real (according to inflationcalculator.ca) for my Canadian classic PP.

Solid rebound from last year; still recovering from the 2022 draw-down.

2024 prediction: LTTs will be the winning asset; bearish on gold because I think deflation is the real threat (and so does the yield curve). Speculation is fun when you're positioned to be right even when you're wrong!

boglerdude wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:52 pm Classic 4x25!? Surely you must have a "variable" portfolio somewhere

I found my mistake. I erroneously counted the money added to my PP in 2023 towards the year profits. Oppps!

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 6:00 pm

boglerdude wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:52 pm
Classic 4x25!? Surely you must have a "variable" portfolio somewhere

I found my mistake. I erroneously counted the money added to my PP in 2023 towards the year profits. Oppps!

Shades of the Beardstown Ladies investment group!


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beardstown_Ladies