Gyroscopic Investing

In a year that has been so good for the Permanent Portfolio, I would have expected a bunch of renewed interest and traffic on this forum. Why so quiet? Then again, it's been a good time for equities in general, so maybe the resurrected traffic comes after a correction/crash.

I just hit 15/35 rebalance bands after quite a while. This means it's time to sell some gold and stocks and (gulp) buy Treasuries and add to cash. Not easy to make a case for buying long bonds, but that's the nature of rebalance. Anyone else doing the same?

Unusually good year for a steady capital preservation portfolio.

at this level of rates now i see more risk in equities than long term bonds .

when rates were so low long term bonds were not a good choice in my opinion but that’s different now

Yeah, PP has done well this year. Gold’s been on an uptrend for the last couple of years, so I’m already hitting my rebalancing point. I’m just really hesitant to sell any right now with all the money-printing and the concerns around U.S. government debt servicing. As to equities I trimmed my FZROX position a bit and bought 3-month T bills. Our 401(k) contributions are going into value index funds.

BTW I read that 80% of the new issues are within a 1-year duration.

glennds wrote: ↑Mon Dec 01, 2025 10:25 am In a year that has been so good for the Permanent Portfolio, I would have expected a bunch of renewed interest and traffic on this forum. Why so quiet? Then again, it's been a good time for equities in general, so maybe the resurrected traffic comes after a correction/crash.

I think you nailed it - why it's so quiet. While the PP is up an amazing 22% through first 11 months of 2025, a classic 60/40 US Stock/Total US Bond is also up a very respectable 13%. So I wouldn't expect to find the disillusioned wandering over looking for an alternative solution in a year like this - need a stock correction/crash to trigger that.

glennds wrote: ↑Mon Dec 01, 2025 10:25 am I just hit 15/35 rebalance bands after quite a while. This means it's time to sell some gold and stocks and (gulp) buy Treasuries and add to cash. Not easy to make a case for buying long bonds, but that's the nature of rebalance. Anyone else doing the same?

Asset returns for 2025 through November:
Stocks 17.06%
LTT 7.65%
Gold 60.19%
Cash 3.88%
Yep, rebalance from stocks & gold to long bond & cash is the correct move. Sell high asset, buy low asset, trust the PP.

glennds wrote: ↑Mon Dec 01, 2025 10:25 am Unusually good year for a steady capital preservation portfolio.

Indeed. Compared to 2025 through November - only 2 better full years since 1978 (per Portfolio Visualizer):
PP up 39% in 1979 (best year for gold up 126%)
PP up 23% in 1982 (best year for stocks up 47%)
In another 31 days we can know the final number for 2025.

Since people keep asking, conservatives/contrarians were directly and indirectly banned/shunned during the 2020 debt jubilee and cover-story. https://old.reddit.com/r/ChurchOfCOVID/ ... nting_the/

Should have had a "surge" in new members during gold's run up.

The actual numbers are only 16 new members since July 9th and only one of them has posted anything. This person has done 4 posts.

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