Gyroscopic Investing

PP investing is kind of boring (which is good), so I thought I would spice it up a bit with a speculative poll that we can revisit in a few years and see how bad we were at predicting the future.

Gold.

Someone voted that bonds would double?

That would mean long term rates had dropped to around 1%. 

MediumTex wrote: Someone voted that bonds would double?

That would mean long term rates had dropped to around 1%. 

It wasn't my vote, but I don't think that's too far out of the realm of possibility.

I would guess gold.

But if I'm wrong, it wouldn't be the first (or even twentieth) time in my investment career that I missed a call.

I voted for gold as well.  It has a lot going for it.  Most people still hate it or are too scared to buy it.  We have negative real interest rates, and based on the Feds current policy we will continue to see this well into the future.  "Smart money" will not like negative real interest rates and will continue to accumulate gold.  This will eventually lead to a bubble and a collapse.

However, gold could derail from a general slowdown in global money growth, ie China stops growing and no one comes along to take up the slack.  China's M2 has exploded since 2000, and matches very well with the bull market in gold (could just be a coincidence).



I'm not sure if either a Chinese collapse or negative real rates will have a greater impact on gold.  I'm guessing real rates are more important.  And if China doesn't collapse, then gold could go crazy.

I voted gold too.  I'll go out on a limb and predict that it doubles before the end of 2017 and that stocks (TSM total return) don't get there until after 2022.

Cash, only if everything gets cut in half or a really long wait.
Bonds, t-minus 5 years to our Euro style collapse.
Stocks, 2nd most likely, but would take a miracle.

Leaves us with gold. Inflation here we come!

Double, starting from when? Today? 

dualstow wrote: Double, starting from when? Today? 

Yep.

I was about to vote bonds, and they probably would double in my portfolio if I didn't rebalance.
But on its own, gold does seem like a good bet. It is the Great Multiplier, after all.

MediumTex wrote: Someone voted that bonds would double?

That would mean long term rates had dropped to around 1%. 

That was me. I hadn't calculated where that would put the yield, but 1% doesn't seem all that far-fetched to me, so I'll stick with my vote.

My gut reaction was "There is no flippin way stocks will double before any of the rest do!"

So I picked stocks because I am usually wrong about predicting anything.

bump.

can I change my answer to stocks?

TennPaGa wrote:

dualstow wrote:can I change my answer to stocks?

Yes.

July 30, 2012 through October 27, 2017, via https://www.etfreplay.com/:

Code: Select all

ETF  return   % of vote
===  =======  =========
VTI  +108.0%     34
TLT    +9.5%      6
SHY    +2.5%      3
IAU   -22.6%     56

Nice! Does somebody want to start a new poll, and we can vote again for the period October 27, 2017 forward?

That’s a good idea. If you start it, we’ll vote!

And congrats to shoestring for winning this one.