Gyroscopic Investing

Question says it all.  Who do you think will win? (Not who you want.)

Also, outside of the poll:
Do you think this impacts your enthusiasm?
Do you even care?
Have you even seen a Presidential ad? (I live in a solid red state, so not a single ad for Obama)

Bean wrote: Question says it all.  Who do you think will win? (Not who you want.)

Obama.

Bean wrote: Do you think this impacts your enthusiasm?

It's hard for me to get enthusiastic about any of the realistic options 

Bean wrote: Do you even care?

Slightly, because I believe Obama will appoint judges less sympathetic to my positions on the issues I care about (he's already done two, and I think he'll have the opportunity to do one or two more).

Bean wrote: Have you even seen a Presidential ad? (I live in a solid red state, so not a single ad for Obama)

California resident without TV service, so that'd be a no. 

Simonjester wrote:
no prediction on a winner, to many variables to call... but if forced to pick i would go with the "Goldman sac's indicator" whoever gets the most money from the biggest banks wins..

i have no enthusiasm for the election or either outcome... i hold a small pocket of optimism that a third party (Gary Johnson) can break the 5% barrier and give a platform for a voice other than the democan/republicrat party in the next election..

do i care? i second the concern about judges.. but see no major difference other than that..

Garbage in, garbage out.  Remember that when you look back and wonder why results don't match the polls.

I want Romney to win, but see Obama winning the electoral college in close fashion. 

I think the popular vote will be within 1% and could go either way.

Tomorrow should be a very entertaining to say the least.

Ask yourself this: Is the voter bases and enthusiasm the same as the 2008 race?

Currently pollsters are weighting the polls on 2008 elections.  Can't remember who did it, but they took the % turnout from both sides for the past 4 presidential elections, averaged them, then weighted the polls by that.  It showed Romney getting above 300 Electoral College votes.

Bean--exactly.

Pollsters always publish their methodology in the fine print.  You don't see this in a newspaper or a 30 second sound bite on TV.

The Republicans argue that modeling this election based on 2008 turnout is off base and skews polls towards an extrememly high Dem turnout and affiliation. 

Who is correct?  We will see tomorrow. 

Since all my hopes and prayers for a meteor taking out both candidates at one of the debates fell through (sorry audience, your sacrifice would have been remembered), I believe that Obama will take the electoral college and Romney will win the popular vote, further exposing how moronic that system actually is.

It's been shown that Americans, particularly those "undecided" voters tend to vote for who they think will win.  Apparently having voted for "the winner" makes them feel better about themselves, even if they had a slight preference for the underdog.  That's why both campaigns make such a big deal out of the poles, always being sure to cherry pick the poles for the best result or attacking poles that aren't favorable.

Banning political poles entirely sounds like it would bring peace to a great many of us and give the pundits less to talk about, which is always a good thing.

Go to realclearpolitics and click on their polling section.  Each one of their polls (NBC, Gallop, Rasmussen, etc) has a link.  They will tell you exactly what questions where asked, racial make up, party identification, etc.

I'm going with Obama because Larry Sabato says so and he has the best track record of predicting elections that I know of.

Bean wrote: Question says it all.  Who do you think will win? (Not who you want.)

Zero

Do you think this impacts your enthusiasm?

What enthusiasm?

Do you even care?

Not really.

Have you even seen a Presidential ad?

Only on the internet.

Romney.

5:10 EST the Gyroscopic Investing forum is calling it for Obama by 20 to 9.

Feels like an exercise in market timing...

Bean wrote: 5:10 EST the Gyroscopic Investing forum is calling it for Obama by 20 to 9.

Feels like an exercise in market timing...

That actually lines up pretty well with the wagering sites and the electoral college polls.

It's very strange to me how people seem to be seeing what they want to see with this election.  I've met quite a few people who seem 100% certain that Romney will win.

It's possible that the polls are wrong, but they usually aren't (especially when you look at a compilation of all polls).  That's certainly not an endorsement of any candidate--it's just an observation.