Gyroscopic Investing

Mish Shedlock called the stock market top on Sunday, before Monday's negative day. Could he be correct?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... r-get.html

Barron's isn't mainstream enough, if you ask me.

But with Newsweek gone, I guess it would have to be Time.

When the market goes up 1% in a single day, especially after several months of a climb, some people are going to post Dow-at-20,000 articles. Others are going to post market-will-fall essays. No matter what, someone will get to gloat, sell newsletters, make new predictions.

Even the most recent climb seemed crazy, and not in step with the reality of our economic situation. So, who's to say it won't crazily climb further next week or next month?

It feels toppy to me right now as well.

MediumTex wrote: It feels toppy to me right now as well.

I'm close to hitting my rebalance bands with stocks and bonds, and I'm tempted to pull the trigger now.

Pointedstick wrote: I'm close to hitting my rebalance bands with stocks and bonds, and I'm tempted to pull the trigger now.

I sold two stock positions today as I don't feel like losing the gains on the way down.  They were originally buyout candidates, but it hasn't happened yet and I'm bored.

If you believe that Mish is correct I'd still probably wait for 2 consecutive down days, including a 1%er, before I sold anything.

I saw an article saying S&P 1700 by years end and dow 20,000 and all that. Sounds like a dip is coming. Reminds me of the Apple $1000 articles last year when it broke $600.

Fundamentaly the QE effects are wearing off again I think. The addict (markets/economy) look ready for another dose to stave off the hangover.

QE infinity will not be enough to prevent the next leg down for the economy I'm afraid.

Reub wrote: If you believe that Mish is correct I'd still probably wait for 2 consecutive down days, including a 1%er, before I sold anything.

I'd so the same, but only on a full moon or perhaps a Tuesday.

What is Mish's track record? Why should we consider what he thinks?

Did he advise buying stocks in 2009 or any time since then?

I think his record is abysmal but that's from memory of something I looked at a few months ago. I think he's been recomending just gold and cash for years now and was advising selling at the lows in 2009.

I've personally listened to him talk about the global economy and the economic problems in America. It sounds like he doesn't understand what money or government is. He sounds like an idiot who just talks a lot and knows the jargon.

Mish gave the clearest description I could find of the transition between the UK having a tally stick system of state money and having the Bank of England. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... -work.html

murphy_p_t wrote: What is Mish's track record? Why should we consider what he thinks?

Did he advise buying stocks in 2009 or any time since then?

Don't know about 2009, but here are my notes from his 2010-2012 predictions (not very good):

2012 -- Severe Europe recession, minor US recession, US and foreign stocks will fall, stronger dollar, China property price collapse, oil and food prices will drop
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... ar-in.html

2011 -- equities overpriced (except Japan), dollar will strengthen, unemployment will rise, Australia housing/stock crash, Portugal & Spain will need bailouts, Detroit will go bankrupt
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... s-for.html

2010 -- oil prices down, the dollar will strengthen or at least hold its own, retrace most if not all of the reflation efforts of 2009
http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/art ... bs-Report-

You know I had posted this, but removed it, because it really wasn't a prediction. Just kind of what the probabilities told me were likely back in late December 2008:

Time to Rebalance?

By not rebalancing, you may miss out on large gains in your other assets by having too much of your money tied up in your current winners. Imagine missing out on a 20%, 30% or higher gain next year[2009] in stocks if the markets recover and things work out.

YES, I know that sounds impossible right now. But it’s happened before and YES it usually does it after a bad market crash.

I think the market was up around 29% in 2009. But again I wasn't predicting it, just pointing out some financial history that runs counter to the conventional wisdom that was swirling around back then.

Following stock market predictions is a complete and total waste of time (and money). The best strategy is still an allocation using strong diversification with rebalancing to ride out gyrations.